Q and A - Addison Reed

Reese Kaplan asks -

Rethinking the Addison Reed trade in which the Mets received Gerson Bautista, Jamie Callahan and Steve Nogosek, was it a good deal?  He went 1-1 with 0 saves and a 3.33 ERA over 27 IP for Boston last year.  Then he left as a free agent. 

Erica Lay says –

I do think it was a good trade. Getting back three prospects for a setup man in his walk year is a good haul, even though they were low level prospects. The reality is we could’ve resigned Reed after the year and these would’ve equated to three free prospects. (I wish we had Reed in the bullpen now.)

Although none of these guys are high on the depth chart, pitching in Vegas makes it a little hard to tell what we have. Of course, having not seen them in person (except for Bautista’s brief stint in Queens) also makes it hard to gauge.

Bautista has pitched much better in Bingo than Vegas, but he’s giving up too many hits. He was walking more people in Vegas which makes me wonder if pitching in that environment makes pitchers leery of throwing strikes. He’s striking out batters at a good clip.

Callahan seems to really struggle with control no matter where he is but also has a decent K%.

Nogosek looks like he has the best numbers but he’s also 23 and only pitching at high A.

Ultimately, if any one of these guys turns into a decent bullpen arm, I think the trade was a good one.

Tom Brennan says –

The Addison Reed deal was a good one.  Time will tell if any of the three acquired players become a true major league asset, but they should have replicated the Yanks' Aroldis Chapman trade deadline flip strategy by re-signing Reed.  He is what the Mets bullpen lacks right now.

Mike Friere says –

For starters, there is no real debate that our current bullpen would be in better shape right now if the Mets somehow held onto Addison Reed for the 2018 season.  But, we also need to remember that AR was an impending free agent in 2017,  so dealing him to the Red Sox for the three prospects listed in the question is already a "win" based on the adage "something is better then nothing".   Plus, the Mets were terrible last year, so trading him away did not change much in the short term.  If any of the three prospects picked up in the trade develop into something akin to AR, then that is "gravy" so to speak.

In the off season, the Twins signed AR to a two year deal worth roughly 17.5 million dollars, which is pricey for a non-closer (which he would have been with Familia on our roster).  But, what makes this sting a bit is Sandy signed Anthony Swarzak for almost the same deal (2 years, 14 million dollars) and he is on the shelf for the foreseeable future.  

Even though AR would fill a need right now, I would still make the deal with the Red Sox.

Eddie Corona says –

To know if the Addison Reed deal was a good one would require us to know if there was a better offer we may have turn down.

Another factor is if we had paid some or all of the salary would that have improved the return. 

However, based on the current return I would say it was fair at best. If you are receiving relievers in return that is usually a bad sign. How often have you heard that the minor league reliever anyone received was a gem of a return?

However, Gerson Batista is a live arm with potential. I had expected a low level high upside prospect. Perhaps Batista is just that.

Reese Kaplan says –

At the time it didn't seem like much of a haul given the best that could be said was that they received "live arms" which I've since discovered is baseballspeak for throws hard but incredibly wild.  Thus far Jamie Callahan is living up to that billing, and although Gerson Bautista has eye popping heat, his brief trial in the big leagues and his struggles in both AA and AAA suggest he's still got some development in front of him.  Nogosek was the least heralded of these pitchers and surprisingly he's having the most success.  Granted, he's a bit long in the tooth at 23 still to be in A ball, but in ten games he's sporting a 1.72 ERA and a WHIP of just 0.77. 

So upon reflection was it a good deal or not?  Well, a lot of hard throwers (Nolan Ryan, for example) struggled to find command, so Bautista is the real wildcard of this bunch.  Nogosek had not done anything prior to this year to distinguish himself but let's see if it's sustainable.  Callahan is the big disappointment with a 4.82 ERA for his minor league career.  He has what Tim Peterson told me was "an electric arm" and I saw it in person when the 51s came here to El Paso, but control is his bugaboo as well. 

If you're evaluating strictly on what each has delivered up to this point, the Mets got skunked.  Addison Reed is pitching to a 2.76 ERA in a setup role for the Twins and would certainly have helped the club more than the ill-fated investments in both Jason Vargas and Anthony Swarzak, but that's a different question for a different day. 

Mack says –

            Let’s see. As of close of business 5-12:

                        Reed:             MLB:  17-AP, 2.75, 1.12, 19.2-IP, 20-K

                        Bautista:      AAA:  3-AP, 13.50, 3.50

                                                2-teams:       9-AP, 7.43, 1,95, 13-IP, 18-K

                        Callahan:     AAA:  7-AP, 9.72, 2.16, 8-IP, 9-K

                        Nogosek:      A+:     10-AP, 1.72, 0.77, 15.2-IP, 20-K

Love the numbers from Nogosek, but he’s at least two years away. And how many A+ level relievers have we seen over the years that put up these kind of numbers?  

No, the numbers are obvious.

Reed could be helping right now.

The others could be steak knives.