5/22/18

Erica Lay - All Hail King Jake




I want to preface this by saying – Noah Syndergaard is an unbelievable talent; I’m incredibly glad he’s a Met. He’s young and fun and I trust him in a big spot. He touches 100mph on the gun with regularity and throws a wicked array of secondary pitches. But, for me…

Jacob deGrom is the unquestionable ace of this staff.

I love stats. I love the story that they tell. I love comparing stat lines across players and years to find a glimmer of hope or a harbinger of future potential. Or sometimes, to understand why we should’ve seen a downfall coming. But not all stories need stats to be understood. Some stories are so good, you just have to appreciate them without analyzing them.

That’s how I feel about Jacob deGrom. The deGrominator. Jake.

When Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler were making their much-hyped MLB debuts in 2012, deGrom was a 24 year old pitching in A ball. In 2014, the year deGrom made his MLB debut – and won the Rookie of the Year – he wasn’t even a top 10 prospect in the Mets system and on some prospect lists wasn’t even mentioned in the top 20.

So what makes deGrom so great?

DeGrom throws gas. He doesn’t hit 100mph like Syndergaard, but his four seam fastball averages a very healthy 96 mph.

His pitches move. I mean, they move a lot. If you need to understand how much movement deGrom gets on his pitches, go back and watch Devein Mesoraco’s first game catching deGrom. Mesoraco seemed to have a tough time gauging just how much deGrom’s pitches were moving and clanked a few.

DeGrom’s secondary stuff is nasty – not only because of movement and velocity, but because of the speed differential. Here are the averages on deGrom’s pitches:

Four Seamer - 96mph
Sinker - 95mph
Slider - 91mph
Change - 89mph
Curve - 82mph

For my part, I think deGrom lives in that perfect sweet spot when it comes to speed differential. There’s enough difference to slow down (or speed up) the hitter’s bat, without there being so much of a difference that a hitter can easily adjust to the off-speed pitch if he’s looking for the fastball.

DeGrom is an absolute beast on the mound. Harvey always got all the attention for his “bulldog” mentality but, if you ask me, deGrom is every bit the intense competitor that Harvey is/was. deGrom could pitch 7 innings, give up a single run and still manage to be completely unsatisfied. He never stops working to improve. And somehow, he does. He’s still getting better. And deGrom’s intensity comes without the arrogance of Harvey. This isn’t a knock on Harvey, just a fact.

Now, these are the things that make deGrom great, but there’s more to his story. There’s one trait that makes deGrom positively special. He can pitch.

I’m not talking about his ability to throw 96mph or the movement on his pitches. I mean the fact that deGrom can get outs when he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Remember game 5 of the NLDS in 2015?

DeGrom had reached his career high in innings pitched (at that point in his career). He was running on fumes by the time game 5 rolled around. You could tell from the start that he had next to nothing. He gave up two runs in the first inning and I thought we were going to need to go to the bullpen early. But deGrom somehow managed to make an adjustment, utilizing what little he had to power through and give us five scoreless after the first. Six innings, two runs. And we went on to the NLCS and, eventually, the World Series. I was amazed at how he worked through that game – under constant duress but never breaking.

Despite the presence of Harvey and despite the raw power and talent of Syndergaard, for me, that’s the moment when deGrom became the ace.

The ability to adjust to diminished skills is a rare quality in a pitcher (or in any athlete). Look at Harvey for reference. As soon as his velocity dipped and he no longer had the same bite on his pitches, he was lost. I don’t see that happening to deGrom.

It drives me crazy when I hear people talk about trading deGrom at the deadline. His mix of talent, determination, intelligence and drive doesn’t come along often. He’s a true ace.

I realize he’s 29 which is old in baseball years. But deGrom’s amazing ability to stay in games when he doesn’t have his best stuff makes me think he’ll age better than other pitchers. As he ages, I can see deGrom morphing into a Greg Maddux or Bartolo Colon type pitcher – one who can use what he has to get outs without being overpowering.

If we're lucky, Syndergaard will develop into this type of pitcher; but deGrom is already there. 




29 comments:

Tom Brennan said...

Erica, if I had a choice of Seaver at his prime or deGrom at his, I'd probably lean to Seaver only because he was able to go deeper into starts - that may have been due to hitters being better now, or not, but that is high praise indeed.

I have always felt Jake was the best of the batch. He is 49-32 in 116 career starts - very sad with this team that as incredibly well as he has pitched, he only has gotten victories in 42% of his starts.

With a team as dangerous offensively as the Yankees, I'd bet that # would go to 65%.

Whitey Ford for most of his career was a .700+ winner. Jake on that Yankee 50's/early 60's juggernaut would have won at least 75%.

He simply is GREAT - as in Hall of Fame quality - but he may not last long enough (being almost 30 already) to get there.

Erica Lay said...

Tom,

Definitely. On a team with any offense to speak of, Jake's winning % would be MUCH higher.

Also, the post was getting a little long so I didn't say this, but I'm not opposed to trading him if we're going to enter a full rebuild phase. I just don't think we're there yet. I'm not ready to throw in the towel on this season in May. And if you believe you still have a window over the next 3 or 4 years - depending on how Rosario, Conforto, Alonso, etc. develop - then he should be a part of that.

Mack Ade said...

Erica -

I like Noah Syndergard.

But I LOVE Jacob deGrom.

Still, I have reservations regarding both. Thor just can't seem to keep him pitch count in line to end a game while Jake is getting older and closer to free agency every day.

I know the Mets are winning this week, but if you want a dominant team, year after year, you have to build a talented pipeline with layers of players that are showing that they are projected to play some day in the majors.

We have that at SS... Rosario, Guillorme, Gimenez...

But that is about it.

Both these two pitches that bring in 6 players currently ranked in MLB's Top 100 prospects.

SIX

I am sticking to my gun and calling for a reload.

Erica Lay said...

Mack,

You don't think one of Dom or Alonso will work out at 1B? And I know his slumps are epic, but I'm hoping Conforto was rushed back and can be the player we need in the OF. I know that still laves an awful lot of spots to fill.

I get what you're saying but how often does a player like Jake come along? He's hard to replace.

Tom Brennan said...

Erica, I am a Pete Person. I'd be more behind Alonso if he were hitting as well as the unloved Jeff McNeil :)

Jeff is the man who can't get no respect. Jake was there once, too,

Erica Lay said...

Me too Tom. I'm not a fan of Dom Smith. I like Alonso and think he'll eventually jump Dom on the depth chart if he hasn't already. I'm thinking (hoping) one of those two work out.

Nimmo also seems like he can be a productive ML'er. I wish he could play CF where his value would be much higher.

Reese Kaplan said...

Nimmo was a centerfielder in the minors and was moved to the corners in the majors. Hey, not everyone is Juan Lagares out there, but I think the team might be better served with Conforto in LF and Nimmo in CF, but since it's a temporary situation for however long La Potencia is ailing, it's probably not prudent to take CF reps away from Conforto who's doing on-the-job-training.

Met Monkey said...

I thought the interview was real cuz of the unfortunately high verisimilitude of Sandystorm insouciance. Next, write a radio play about Martians landing in a field in NJ and taking Sandy a----------way! Did Martians just take the interview away, or did Sandy? It's gone.

Mack Ade said...

Erica -

Peter Alonso would be the 1Bman on my 2019 team.

Luis Guillorme would be my 2Bman

Amed Rosario would be my SS.

Gavin Cecchini and Wilmer Flores would be my utility infielders

Michael Conforto and Brandon Nimmo would be two of my starting outfielders.

Robest Gsellman would be my closer.

Seth Lugo would be in my rotation.

Drew Smith and Tyler Bashlor would be in my pen

Erica Lay said...

Mack,

If we trade Noah and Jake and get back 6 prospects in the top 100, my worry is that 1 (or none) of the 6 work out. The trades the Yankees pulled off a few years ago just seems like the exception to me, not the norm.

I understand we may need to go all-in on a rebuild because the window on this staff/team has pretty much closed, but if both Jake AND Noah are traded, it needs to be for talent that is truly franchise changing. And I just don't believe that we'll get that kind of return. (Or maybe I just don't trust our current FO to get it right.)

Personally, I'm just not ready to call it quits on this season yet. 2018 is our last shot at the playoffs with this group. But, if things keep going the way they have and they blow it up, I'll get it.

Mack Ade said...

Erica -

I understand your concern. Frankly, no one is going to do what I would do anyway.

With the Mets currently winning and closing closer to both the wild card and division lead, I too would hold off until, at least, the all-star break.

Still, I don't think this team will hold up with a damaged rotation, a third baseman and top outfielder on the DL, a right fielder who is topping out, and basically no catcher that would ever make the all-star team.

Erica, I do not expect all this to fall in place by 2009. Many of the prospects gotten in any trades may not be ready until 2010 or 2011. Still, I think you have to roll the dice here.

I also think other ++ Mets chips will rise in 2010-2012. I expect Gimenez to be converted to our starting third baseman... any combination of Crismatt, Dunn, Szapucki, Humphreys, Peterson, and Kay could all be in my rotation... Uceta, Ryan, and Zanghi would be in my pen... you add to this blue chip catcher, an additional outfielder, and a front end starter and you have the makings of a great team, under team control, well into the next decade.

Erica Lay said...

If only we could land Vlad Jr. to fill that OF hole...

Mack Ade said...

Erica -

Then, let me ask you...

would you trade either Noah or Jake for Vlad Jr. + one more prospect?

(see how this works?)

Erica Lay said...

Of course, but I don't think we'd get that kind of return. If we did, then count me in.

Mack Ade said...

Erica

This is how bad teams built great organizations.

And let us remember...

All the 2019 potential free agents we have on our team could be traded afer the all star game for potentially more ++ chips

Eddie from Corona said...

Erica
I have loved your posts and this was another winner...
In a vacuum I agree with you about Jake being the one to build around, although I argue whether he is the ace.
Hear me out... I see him more like Andy Petite. A really good pitcher who's ceiling is a No. 2. I believe he will battle you as he did in your article where he pitched game 5 of the NLDS. However an aces is suppose to throw zero's in the first. You set the tone that you will get nothing tonight. that's a Ace. I didn't see that or ever felt that with degrom.
I did feel that when Harvey was his dark knight days... Yes Degrom can pitch when he doesn't have his best stuff... but i find that happens more often than I expected. His era (which i still believe is the best stat for pitchers) keeps climbing year after year. where it ended in 2017 at 3.53... very good but not among the elites. I don't see the dominance of Santana, or Pedro those first years...

I love him but will having him as a losing team mean more than trading him in the hopes of being a good team? (see David wright who i felt the same way about)
And he is 29.. yes his arms is more fresh as he was a position player early in his career but I believe his real value would be in trade

Eddie from Corona said...

Erica
Do you remember what we got for David Cone?
Nothing but we still had to maximize value... I would agree I don't trust sandy in making that decision but that's not the same argument.

Eddie from Corona said...

Mack which Ryan and Zanghi do you refer to?
maybe you could drop a nugget on them?

and I am on record that I would trade either thor or degrom to the yankees as long as Gleyber Torres is part of that deal...
Then they can go sign Machado...

Tom Brennan said...

I would trade Jake or Thor for Vlad Jr., straight up.

Eddie from Corona said...

Tom I think we need more unless you think he will have Harper, machado, AROD type affect... then we are not giving up enough..

Mack Ade said...

Eddie

Is Ryder Ryan and Joseph Zanghi. Both in our pipeline and pitching ++

Dean said...

Erica I'm with you there is zero need to start trading off our two best players Degrom or Thor. We have had 2 streaks so far one winning 1 losing and we are on pace for close to 90 wins. I do not feel we are that far off, 2 young 1st base prospects who could be ready in 18 0r 19, 2 young second base prospects in McNeil and Guillorme (maybe Cecchini), set at Short as Rosario will improve with some patience, third is a weak spot as well as catcher but the outfield I believe is solid with Conforto, Nimmo, Bruce and Cespedes. The season is young, none of our starters are past the age where I would not expect them to approach average seasons compared to career norms. This means 25-35 Hrs for Conforto, Bruce and Cespedes and average between .250-.290, the infield should all be at least average or close to career norms, catcher maybe we catch lightning in a bottle with Mesoraco. That leaves pitching, the back end of the rotation needs to step up but trading 2 ace pitchers under 30 to rebuild makes "ZERO" sense at this point in time. It would help tremendously if the front office would actually make a succesful trade or free agent signing one of these years but thats a topic for another day.

Erica Lay said...

Hey Eddie,

I definitely agree that age is the biggest factor against him. In order to buy-in on Jake you have to believe that he'll age well. I do, but I can completely understand why people would be hesitant about this.

I disagree that he's not an ace, though. In 116 career starts, he's given up 1 run or less in 55 games (47%). He's given up 2 runs or less in 76 games (65%). To me, that's dominance.

I did a check on Santana since you mentioned him and I was curious. Looking at his game logs from 2004 (when he moved into the rotation F/T) to 2010 (before he started missing time to injury), these are Johan's stats: in 222 games he gave up 1 run or less in 97 games (43%) and 2 runs or less in 139 (63%).

Right now, Jake also has Johan beat on ERA - Johan's career ERA is 3.20 and Jake's is 2.89. Granted, Jake hasn't pitches nearly as much as Johan, so I'm not anointing Jake any type of ERA champ.

We waited too long on Harvey so I completely understand why people are willing to part with Jake so we don't end up making the same mistake again.

I'd trade Jake (and/or Noah) for the right package - certainly for Vlad Jr (my mama didn't raise no fool!). I just worry that we won't realistically be able to replace Jake once he's gone and that the return on him wouldn't be nearly as good as what we'd be giving up.

To be determined....



Erica Lay said...

Dean - I'm completely with you. If we fall out of the race, then I'll be totally up for this convo. But right now, I still believe we have a shot so I don't want to think about selling off Jake or Noah at this stage.

Tom Brennan said...

I read that a scout said Vlad will surpass Bruce Harper. That is a WOW.

Tom Brennan said...

Joey Bats and a bag of donuts

Tom Brennan said...

Jeff McNeil is better than Cecchibi...power, speed, fielding. Hits as well or better too

Tom Brennan said...

I retyped Cecchibi as Cecchini and it changed it AGAIN...UGH!

Tom Brennan said...

NICE breakdown. I did a quick comp article of same type on Dom Smith for manana.