5/20/18

Mike Friere - How Do Things Look, So Far?



After last night's come from behind, "walk off" win over the Diamondbacks, the Mets are sporting a 22-19 record.  Not a horrible record by any stretch of the imagination, but it seems disappointing after the 11-1 start to the year, doesn't it?  In addition to the record itself, the Mets are currently in fourth place, 3.5 games behind the Atlanta Braves who lead the division (that's difficult to write).

While none of us are pleased to be in fourth place (again), things could always be worse.  For example, the White Sox are 12-30 to date and look like a favorite to land the first pick in the draft in 2019.  Or, another way of looking at things is to ask yourself a basic question.  Would you feel any different if the Mets had started the season 11-18, only to go 11-1 over the last few weeks to arrive at the same 22-19 record?  I think we would all feel much more confident about the rest of the season if that were the case, even though nothing would be different, which is interesting.

For those of you who are into statistics (which is likely to be a small club that includes Erica and myself),  the Mets' current record covers 41 games played since the start of the season and it is basically 25% of the way towards the completion the 162 game schedule.  You can geek out a bit and use a multiplier of 4 to extrapolate any counting statistic and figure out how it would look by season's end.

For example, the Mets are on pace to win roughly 88 ballgames (22 X 4), which would be close to the record they posted in both 2015 and 2016.  Or, Mookie Betts could be on pace to hit 60 home runs this year (15 X 4), if he continues to play at the same level and he participates in the remaining games to be played.

While that may be fun, it isn't the most accurate way of looking at things.  I want to briefly reintroduce a statistic from a previous series on the same, which is referred to as the "Pythagorean Win Theorem".  If you recall, you can use a team's run differential (runs scored compared to runs surrendered) to calculate an expected win total.  I won't go into the entire calculation again, but the basis of the effort is that successful teams usually have better run differentials then unsuccessful teams.

If we take a quick look at the NL East Standings as of this morning (05/20/18), this is what things look like (with run differential in parenthesis);

Atlanta             27-17 (+64)
Philadelphia     26-17 (+39)
Washington     24-20  (+31)
New York        22-19  (-11)
Miami             17-28   (-87)

Remember that this calculation is more accurate as a team plays more games, since extremes in runs scored and/or runs surrendered begin to normalize over time.  Despite this fact, I think that the numbers have some value now that we have reached the "quarter pole" of the season, so to speak.

So, what do the standings look like if we use the "expected records" based on our formula?

Atlanta          29-15  (+2 games)
Philadelphia  26-17  (same)
Washington   26-18  (+2 games)
New York     19-22  (-3 games)
Miami           13-32  (-4 games)

Basically, the Braves are actually playing better then their record, which is not good news for the Mets when you consider that Atlanta's roster is comprised of mostly young players.  The Phillies are also an up and coming team that is playing well.  The Nationals have underachieved to date and will likely continue their recent rise towards the top of the standings (I think they will be Atlanta's primary competition for the rest of the year, within the division).  Skipping over the Mets for a second, surprisingly enough, the Marlins have overachieved to date and should be A LOT worse then their current record.

The final paragraph brings us to the Mets' efforts to date and if you look at the numbers, they have overachieved, as well (largely due to the unexpected start to the year).  They are actually playing more like a below .500 team with regards to their run differential, which does not bode well for the remainder of the year (which is what most of us suspected without the fancy statistics).

Unless fourth place finishes are the goal, it is time to tear it down and start over, IMO.

15 comments:

Mack Ade said...

Mike -

I have a whole new mindset on this team this year.

I see no future without a complete rebuild.

Reese Kaplan said...

Here's a hint why the Braves are doing better. They had a prospect available to play 3B and just released veteran Jose Bautista to make room.

It is the polar opposite of the Mets who choose to find over-the-hill veterans to block young players, then bemoan when their own prospects get about 2 ABs a week why they can't hit.

SANDY ALDERSON NEEDS TO GO.

Mack Ade said...

Reese -

I have an interview scheduled with Sandy tomorrow and will post what the content of it is early in the week.

I have many questions to ask him about the direct of this team.

Natale DiDonato said...

Being an ever optimistic fan, I point out that in Harvey’s last 3 and Vargas only 3, the differential is - 38 with Harvey giving up 6 runs in 6 innings and Vargas 28. We solved one problem let’s fix Vargas and see what happens.

Tom Brennan said...

Nice!

Tom Brennan said...

It just could turn around. Too early for break up.

Rob said...

The saying goes you're not as good as your winning streak, and not as bad as your losing streak. My thoughts before the season was the Mets are a 90 win team, more or less. I have seen nothing that changes that thinking. Yes, there are improvements that need to be made, one, Harvey, has already been made.
It is very easy to be negative, just read the New York papers with their ridiculous claims to trade Syndergaard and DeGrom. People today seem to be quick to say 'Blow it up', when that would be a stupid thing for a team like the Mets to do. Lets take stock:

DeGrom - one of the best pitchers in baseball
Syndergaard - one of the pitchers with the best stuff in baseball
Gsellman Lugo and Sewald - three young talented pitchers
Familia and Blevins - two of the better relief pitchers around
Minor league pitchers, especially relievers with a good future
Plawecki and Mesoraco - solid catchers
Cespedes - one of the best right fielders in the game.
Rosario, Nimmo and Conforto - young players that are on the verge of becoming solid if not special major league players.
Guillorme - has looked good when he has played.
My prediction is when Frazier comes off the DL, Guillorme will stay and Reyes will be DFA'd.
We have good veteran leadership such as Frazier, Bruce, Cabrera, Flores and Gonzalez.
I know that not everything has gone right, but did you know that Gonzalez has a better OPS than Paul Goldschmidt?
I know that by the end of the year, Goldschmidt will probably be back on track, but so will some of our leaders, such as Bruce, Cespedes and Conforto.
I think it would be foolish to look and Atlanta and Philly and say they might be good for the next few years, so let's rebuild. Look at the NBA east, everyone has been waiting for LaBron to get old, but now Boston and Philly look like the teams of the near future. The Mets need to stay the coarse and make improvements where they can.

Met Monkey said...

Mike, the line, "You can get out a bit and use a multiplier of four" cracked me up, then when the bus stopped I realized I misread it. What was the run differential for the 73 team?

Mike Freire said...

The 73 team was slightly positive for the year in run differential which should have translated to an 83-78 record. However, they barely underachieved and finished with an 82-79 record, so the formula did a pretty good job in that case.

They subsequently beat a very good Reds squad (Big Red Machine) in the NLCS, before losing to the A's in the WS.

So you could argue that they actually overachieved for the year.

Met Monkey said...

ThanX. As a pup, I muffed but recaptured a scorcher down the left field line off Cesar Geronimo. Such a Shea thrill.

Anonymous said...

Rob,
Wilmer Flores is not a veteran really, it's just the Mets got him from that DR Shortstop School when he was eight.

Anonymous said...

A 2018 NY Mets season theme song...
Is needed for this to go into the "MAGICAL METaverse."

Why not have a promotional contest at Mets' Citi Field to find that "perfect song" for this 2018 Championship Mets Season?

Music can in fact be incredibly magical for healing people and their minds which are both actually one. Music can in fact have healing powers (God Tones) that actually vibrate all living cells to good health in plants, animals, and humans. It is this vibration and harmonic resonance combined at work.

Anyway...

What might be my suggestion for a song you ask?

"Conquistador" by Procol Harum. Works for me. Symphonic Orchestration is by far the most healing or so I have learned.

The song is on youtube.com to look up! (Play it loud man)

Anonymous said...

Mr. Mack:

It's the glass half full or half empty thing here (perhaps) with this team. I agree with you on this.

Look at the last few games they have won. Two key vets out hurt, still the team rises up with a new younger player each time and grabs the win almost easily. The pitching has been stellar. Key hits have prevailed. But with youth this is all staying together very nicely.

In another universe where money is no object (if there is one) this team could be made unbelievable in seconds. But in this realistic version, it isn't that easy to mend and make great. It takes time. Tanking it all and starting over, we have been there too often I think.

I'd much rather add in what this needs than start all over. How close is this here? Three moves. None huge either. Just things we need added.

Anonymous said...

Met Monkey:

Cleon or George?

Anonymous said...

Two words...

Johan Santana.