Tom Brennan - THE JAKE DEGROM BLUES

Tom Brennan - THE JAKE DEGROM BLUES

Did you ever see one of those movies where the guy returns from a tour of duty in Iraq and finds himself waking up drenched in sweat and screaming from PTSD flashbacks?

Miles Teller starred in one recently, called THANK YOU FOR YOUR SERVICE.

I wonder if that happens to Jake deGrom. 

I wonder if it happens a lot.

After all, Jake, the man with the best ERA in the NL (1.54) and 77 Ks in 58 innings - Koufax-equivalent production - has had 10 starts in 2018.

Let's toss the one where he went only 1 inning post-extended elbow and also the one where he actually hyperextended his elbow and just got in 4 shutout innings. 

That leaves 8 games, just 4 wins.

He still has had 4 other no decision games. 

In those, he threw 26.1 innings, fanned 36, and allowed just 7 runs (2 of those scored after he left the game).

With a good hitting team, he'd most likely either be 7-1 or 8-0.  With a good hitting AL team, he would not have extended his elbow and might well be 9-1 or 10-0.

With the Mets, he is just 4-0.  Poor Jake.

Let's widen this out: in 117 career starts, he has won only 49 of them (42%), while losing 32 (27%); the other 31% (36 starts) are no decisions.

In 37 (32%, nearly 1 in 3) of his starts, the Mets have scored only 0, 1, or 2 runs.  In those games, he is just 5-22 with 10 no-decisions, despite an ERA of 3.42.

In 50 games (43%) with 3 to 5 runs scored, he is 21-8, with TWENTY ONE NO DECISIONS, despite an ERA of 2.42.

In only 30 games (25%) of his starts has he gotten 6 or more runs of support, and in those he is 23-2 with 5 NDs and an ERA of 2.96.

All the NDs were not the result of a slew of unearned runs - partially due to his own fielding prowess, there have only been 19 earned runs surrendered while he has thrown his 739 career innings, or 0.23 runs per 9 innings.

He has also helped his cause by hitting .189 in his 268 hitting appearances.

Still, just 49 wins in 117 starts.

Why?  Lousy Mets hitting, and mediocre relieving, throughout his career.

When the Daily News recently floated their back page suggesting a trade of Jake to the Yanks might make sense, he must have thought - at least just for a second - how nice pitching for a team that averages 5.9 runs per game, as the Yankees have this year, would be.

With the Yanks, my take is:

Jake would hardly ever get a loss or a no decision. 

And he just might be on his way to the Hall of Fame, a tough thing for him to accomplish given that his first major league start was just 2 months short of his 26th birthday.

So Jake, when you do wake up screaming, I am sorry to tell you: it is NOT a dream and it is likely to continue. 

You, like Tom Seaver in his prime, have had one major hindrance to greatness - pitching for lousy hitting, mediocre relieving Mets teams most years.

Seaver pushed through and achieved career greatness - I hope you can too. 

Because you are a very great pitcher and it hurts to see such a great pitcher winning just 42% of his career starts.

Win or lose, you are tremendously appreciated.


P.S.


Here is a nice historical article from 2014 on Jake that, if you read this far, you will certainly enjoy reading:


https://nypost.com/2014/08/01/how-jacob-degrom-went-from-light-hitting-ss-to-mets-stud-pitcher/