Paul Articulates – Cost to compete

The New York Mets have made quite a splash in the off-season, signing contracts with regularity using a very fine grade of golden ink.  The 2023 team will smash MLB payroll records and incur luxury tax at the highest rate.  Some of this spending was absolutely necessary to build a team that can win in the short term yet also be competitive over the long haul.

With the signings slowing down now, I thought it would be interesting to take a look at the presumed starters in each position group to find out the “cost to compete” in each area.  I also kept an eye out for the longevity of each group by looking at how many years of contract remain beginning in 2023.

Infield: The Mets have returned the entire starting infield from last year.  Although there is much speculation about how they will break spring training at third base, the other three positions are fairly well locked up.  For now I will presume that Eduardo Escobar starts at third to fill in an infield that boasts Francisco Lindor, Silver Slugger Jeff McNeil, and Pete Alonso.  

These four players are guaranteed to be together for only the upcoming year, as Pete is on a one-year deal for his second arbitration-eligible year and Eduardo is in his last contract year although there is a player option for 2024.  This group, which accounted for 19 WAR last year, will cost the team $68.5M for 2023.

Outfield: The Mets were able to entice Brandon Nimmo to remain in New York for the long term, which made everyone smile including Brandon, who signed for an average annual value of $18.25M.  He joins Starling Marte and Mark Canha who were both awarded multi-year deals last year.  Canha is only guaranteed the 2023 season, but there is a club option for 2024.  Marte is good through 2024 with the Mets.  These three outfielders provide great range, strong fielding, and solid at-bats to the Mets at a cost of $48.25M next year.

Starting Pitching: The Mets had to put a lot of money into re-building their staff for 2023 after many took their talents to free agency.  The signings of Justin Verlander, Kodai Senga, and Jose Quintana gave great hope to fans for the upcoming season, but since that talent had to be purchased rather than elevated from the farm system it sports a very hefty price tag.  Their combined 14.7 WAR from last year [note: Senga has no calculated WAR from the NBL] will cost the team almost $127.7M in 2023.

Relief Pitching: The relief staff is not set, and there will inevitably be some shuffling around of the rosters at the end of spring training.  If you read Tom Brennan’s excellent post on Sunday “Remaining Options and Pen Arms in Metsville”, you are aware of the tough choices ahead for the front office with several players running low or out on options.  

For the purposes of this article, I will just look at five relief pitchers that I believe are a lock to start the MLB season and we will fill in the blanks in early Arpil.  Those five will come with a $40.8M price tag and don’t even include long relief.

Needless to say, these are some very expensive position groups, and there are not many teams around that need such a fleet of Brinks trucks to compensate their players.  However, I think you can agree that there is strength in every group, and the team should be very competitive in the upcoming season.  

As the farm system begins to produce new talent for future seasons, team control of their early years will allow the average salaries to settle down a bit and the price to succeed will be much lower.