1/31/23

The Mack Report (Baptist, Mauricio, Perez, Jeff, 2027)



  

 One of the top 3 International prospects signed by the Mets -   

The club announced Monday it has agreed to terms with 27 players, including catcher Daiverson Gutierrez, the No. 27-ranked prospect on the top 50 international list. They also agreed to deals with outfielder Anthony Baptist, who ranks No. 29, and No. 43 Cristopher Larez. 

Baptist is one of the fastest players in the class and also one of the most exciting. He is expected to start in center field and stay at the position as he develops, primarily because of his speed, but also because he has the potential to be an above-average defender. He can chase balls down in the outfield, and like all prospects his age, he is working on fine-tuning his routes and angles. 

The hope is that his speed -- he has been consistently clocked at 6.1 seconds in the 60-yard-timed run -- will also come into play on the bases and he can develop into a base-stealer in the future. 

He trains with Pedro ”Nube” Nivar, a member of MLB’s Trainer Partnership Program, in the Dominican Republic. 

Mack - you can’t ignore 6.1 in 60 speed. This doesn’t grow off of trees and when it comes your way, you develop it.

A centerfielder with speed… hmm… I sort of remember a couple of these drafted recently, both of which no longer play for this team. 

 

New York Mets Top 50 Prospects (2023)

https://www.prospects1500.com/nl-east/mets/new-york-mets-top-50-prospects-2023/?s=03 

3. Ronny Mauricio*, SS, 21, Double-A

Mauricio was absolutely elite in the recent 2022 Dominican Winter League in which he won league MVP. Mauricio had 54 hits in the DWL which led the league in 47 games. The former top 100 prospect will hopefully now get the respect he deserves and is hoping for another successful season in 2023. Mauricio continues to get bigger and showing power while stealing bases. At Binghamton, he was apart of the 20-20 club (26 HR – 20 SB). The strikeouts need improvement, but Mauricio could possibly be a trade piece for the aggressive Steve Cohen in 2023. 

                                        1-25-23 - The Athletic

Ronny Mauricio remains a relevant name in the system because he’s also on the 40-man roster, but he must make better swing decisions before receiving serious consideration as an option somewhere in the near future. Though he had 26 home runs and 20 stolen bases last year in Double A, Mauricio’s .296 on-base percentage in 541 plate appearances at the level indicated he has work to do in recognizing pitches and laying off balls out of the zone. According to scouts in the Dominican Republic, Mauricio saw a lot of breaking balls and offspeed pitches over the winter. In 203 plate appearances with Tigres del Licey, Mauricio slashed .287/.335/.468 with five home runs. For the first time in his winter ball career, he played third base, which might be a better position for him than shortstop, where scouts said range and fluidity have been questions. 

Mack - The Athletic has finally answered the question we all have been asking…. why isn’t this guy ranked in the top 100 prospects. 

Keep your eye this season on his AAA OBP. If that doesn’t improve, well, he could easily be traded or fade away. 

 

The Mets have resigned 30-year old catcher, Michael Perez. He was originally signed by Arizona in the 5th round of the 2011 draft, out of the Colegio Vocacional Para Adultos, in San Juan, Puerto Rico. 

He came to the Mets last season from Pittsburgh. His combined 2022 stats were: -0.1-WAR, 121-AB, 6-HR, .149 

Perez is everything that Francisco Alvarez isn’t. He can’t hit a lick, plays excellent defense, and has an arm like a cannon. 

Mack - My assumption here is that Perez will join Alvarez in Syracuse for the start of the 2023 season. Everything Alvy needs help in can be found in Perez’s game. On paper, looks like a smart move. 

 

“National League batting champion Jeff McNeil and the New York Mets are in agreement on a four-year, $50 million contract extension, pending physical, sources familiar with the deal tell ESPN. It includes a fifth-year club option that could take value to $63.75 million.” 

Mack - We’ve talked and debated about this for weeks. And the fans have won.. Jeff McNeil will give up the two remaining arbitration years and, instead, will be under a Mets contract for a minimum  of a period ending with the 2026 season. There also is a team option for the 2027 season. 

Me?  Well, it looks like someone will have to pry away Jeff’s second base glove in order to get him to play another position. Make no doubt about it, There will be no threat of McNeil losing his second base gig until possibly… possibly having Jett Williams take over in, when? Well, Williams played last year for the FCL Mets  as a 19 year old so my guess  he will play, at least, three more seasons in the minors. That would make 2026 as the earliest year he would be available, Jeff’s last year of his non-extended contract. 

And they are paying him  an AAV of $12.5mil. Max’s is $43.33 mil. 

Wow, this is a perfect fit, team friendly deal.


One last thing.

Mets fans always cry that Atlanta has done a greay job of locking up their talent for years to come.

Well, here are the Mets that  are under team control through 2027: 

Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, Edwin Diaz, Kodai Senga, Jeff McNeil,Tylor Megill, Francisco Alvarez, and Brett Baty.

14 comments:

Anonymous said...

Thinking McNeil plays a lot of corner OF and Guillorme plays 2B. No shift makes Guillorme even more valuable at 2B.

Anonymous said...

Ummm,look at the contracts!

Tom Brennan said...

I still think Guillorme has one more year before someone crowds him out as my guess is he will be up in the $3 million range next season - and a guy like Wyatt Young would save $. Remember every salary $$ will be matched in luxury tax, and even for billionaires, those millions start to add up.

I still think Mauricio made big strides in 2022 and I will assume further improvement in 2023. I don't think he is a fader.

Assuming he would have gotten to being the real Jeff McNeil we now see, if he hadn't been limited in the minors to 50 games in 2016 and 2017 due to injury, he would have made a ton more $$ now. Because of those injuries he did not make his debut until he was 26.3 years old. Which is why the free agency rules hurt guys who, unlike Lindor, do not arrive quickly.

Mack Ade said...

I don't agree.

Jeff will be the 2023 second baseman

Mack Ade said...

Huh?

Mack Ade said...

Regarding Wyatt, let's keep a close eye on him this season

bill metsiac said...

What about the guy we signed as a FA who was supposedly ready to be in the White Sox lineup? What's his potential role here?

bill metsiac said...

I'm not familiar with speed #s. If this kid if this kid Baptist does 60 yards in 6.1, who in the majors does that compare to?
More locally, how does that compare to Marte, Nimmo and Lindor?

Tom Brennan said...

Bill, did not find 60 yard speed for our guys, but this is a fascinating site: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/brandon-nimmo-607043?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

Tom Brennan said...

Danny Mendick? .245/.311/.367 per BB Ref for 2023. Role? He may be able to hold the fort until Vientos and Mauricio are deemed good to go.

bill metsiac said...

I reject #s thrown around without evidence or valid comparisons.

I've seen "projections" of various Mets for 2023 (almost all, oddly, showing steep declines from 2022 and career norms). Yet I have been unable to see the projections from the same sites for previous seasons, including '22.

How accurate have their projections been, and how do they establish credibility?

Similarly, I look for comparisons. Reading a # like "6.1 sec/60 yards" is meaningless to me without knowing how they compare to the #s of other players. Would 6.1 put him in the Top 10 of MLB players? Or players with 500 PA? Or all Mets?

If a player has 25 HRs in a season, it's a nice #. But if there were 20 others with more, it doesn't carry the same weight as it would if only 2 had more.

I look for track records and comparisons. Anyone, even you or I, can make "projections", but what would give them validity?

Tom Brennan said...

Bill, I agree on projections of hitting or pitching being inaccurate. I have no doubt that they tend to be conservative: no goubt, Alonso, McNeil, Lindor, Marte, and Nimmo all outdid the 2022 pre-season projections by these sites. By a lot, collectively. I recall looking at them last year at this time. On the other hand, I have no doubt McCann and Smith projections last year were overstated. Smith was, as I recall somewhere are .250 or .260 by these projectors, and he did way worse.

Speed-wise, good question.

Tom Brennan said...

Bill, speed-wise, I did see this, and it means 6.1 in a 60 is blazing fast, since the speediest category is 6.4 or faster:

A players running speed is usually timed in two ways; 60 yard dash and from home to first. The average major league time is 6.9 for the 60 yard dash, from home to first 4.3 seconds for right handed hitters and 4.2 seconds for left handed hitters. The clock start on times from home to first on the crack of the bat to when the foot hits first base. A fast runner at the major league level can run home to first in 4.0 seconds or below. The ability to run, will force fielders to rush their throws and make more throwing errors. A team without speed will often have to hold their runners at third base thus scoring less runs.

60 Yard Dash:
8: 6.4 seconds
7: 6.5-6.6 seconds
6: 6.7-6.8 seconds
5: 6.9-7.0 seconds
4: 7.1-7.2 seconds
3: 7.3-7.4 seconds
2: 7.5 seconds +

Home To First (Right Side):
8: 4.0 seconds
7: 4.1 seconds
6: 4.2 seconds
5: 4.3 seconds
4: 4.4 seconds
3: 4.5 seconds
2: 4.6 seconds

Home To First (Left Side):
8: 3.9 seconds
7: 4.0 seconds
6: 4.1 seconds
5: 4.2 seconds
4: 4.3 seconds
3: 4.4 seconds
2: 4.5 seconds

Tom Brennan said...

Bill the above is excerpted from this fine synopsis:

http://www.hsbaseballweb.com/pro-scouting/rating_system.htm