First off:
Jeff McNeil is going to arbitration over a $1.5 million differential, as the Mets have already agreed to pay Pete $14.5 million with comparable time in. But they offer Jeff less than half that amount despite higher career WAR and his 2022 MLB batting title. Criminal.
I like to drop a bad season when evaluating a player. So, let’s drop McNeil’s 2021 season…what are his numbers over the 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2022 seasons?
1,451 at bats, 467 hits (.322), 102 doubles, 8 triples, 39 HRs, 210 runs, 179 RBIs, and a prodigious slash line of .322/.383/.484. Add to that his defensive acumen at multiple positions and his all out hustle?
C’mon, Mr. Cohen, pay Mr. McNeil. He deserves every single penny of what he is asking for. He deserves more, frankly.
The Veteran “Cutch” returns home to Pittsburgh.
Everyone’s baseball career is different.
But a little comparison here and there between two players the Mets did not get could be enlightening.
The pre-Met, then almost-Met, then non-Met Carlos Correa has 1) been strong in offseason play, 2) had some real excellence in his early career, and 3) will be 28 in the first season of his expensive long term Twins deal, after the Mets greatly modified downward their first “subject to” offer.
Andres McCutcheon?
He was one of baseball’s very best in his mid-to late 20s:
3rd in MVP voting at age 25, actual MVP winner at 26, 3rd in MVP voting at 27, and 5th in MVP voting at 28. Three Silver Sluggers and a Gold Glove in that four season span. But…
Never a single MVP vote thereafter. For a reason: performance decline.
Except for one .279 season, he only hit between .222 and .256 in every other year since, and never totaled as many as 29 HRS and 89 RBIs in any season after age 28, and most of those totals in those seasons were well below that.
If in 2022 he was just becoming a free agent, say after his age 28 season, he’d have raked in immensely innumerable dollars, making him (as it turns out) immeasurably overpaid by his subsequent performance.
So…why couldn’t the “almost Met” Carlos Correa also turn out to be immeasurably overpaid? Let the buyer beware. Today’ delicious produce can turn into a wilting product before you know it.
After all…Albatross sightings are frequent in baseball. Too frequent.
Look at the struggling Anthony Rendon in the first 3 of 7 seasons of his $35 million per year Angels deal after starting as a National.
I’d like to say he averaged 20 HRs and 89 RBIs per season.
He hasn’t…he has TOTALED 20 HRs and 89 RBIs in 2020-22. Averaging 7 HRs and 30 RBIs.
More than $1 million per RBI over those seasons. Anthony won’t receive a Tony award for that.
So, I like the Mets’ approach with Pham, Vogelbach, Narvaez, Nido. …lower salaries, lefty/righty hitting alternates, short deals…likely productive in 2023…AND leaving the Mets flexible in team salary for future years.
Just food for thought. Speaking of grub…What’s for breakfast, anyway? But, before that corn muffin…
Besides the above topic, don’t you hate static? You reach into a closet and get a static shock? ZZZAP!
Well, let’s talk about a different kind of static…the kind of static thinking where someone sits with a static view of what they saw of a prospect in September in deciding in their own minds whether that prospect will be ready for opening day 2023, a full 6 months after September.
It ignores that the prospects are without doubt working feverishly this off season to eliminate or minimize their September flaws.
For instance, Anthony DiComo just wrote this about Brett Baty:
“Working out at the University of Texas’ baseball facility, Baty has put in countless hours fielding topspin ground balls, performing one-handed drills and also reaction-based training, such as the close-range “Ron Washington” drill named after the longtime Major League coach and manager.
“Baty has also done plenty of conditioning work in his hometown of Lake Travis, Texas, at a private facility where stars such as the NBA’s LaMarcus Aldridge and the NFL’s Myles Garrett train.”
As DiComo’s article continues to elaborate, Baty clearly sees extreme opportunity lying ahead and wants a little “carpe diem” this spring training. I am sure the approach is the same for Francisco Alvarez this winter. Having seen a brief video of Bryce Montes de Oca working out this off season, ditto on the all-out drive to improve.
So, my thinking is not static about these 3, nor or about Vientos, I’m sure, who likely is working feverishly this off season on tightening his defense.
They will all be in full blown “carpe diem” mode. They’ve had a taste and they want it bad.
May you carpe diem as well, my Latin friends.
15 comments:
I was delighted when the Correa deal fell through . I hate the idea of long term deals. Looking forward to seeing what Baty can do. If given a chance, bet he comes close to matching Correa 's output.
Regarding McNeil...
I stand convinced on two things...
1. There lingers bad blood between the Mets and Jeff.
2. The Cohen Administration can't spend mad money on all positions and they have chosen to spend them on other positions than second base
Next big offer... that pitcher/DH/OFer guy.
Great thoughts on all fronts, Tom.
I agree with you that McNeil earned more than the Mets offered. Maybe Buck can chip in ... by batting McNeil in the 7-8 slot much of the early season, Buck robbed Jeff of many RBIs which would have boosted his value. Hope all have learned from that mistake.
Glad to hear that Baty is working hard - I'm excited to see what he can do!
Never really understood the point of fighting to the penny in these situations especially since Mets can pay whatever now. I do continue to feel at this point that Jeff will become odd man out as far as extension players. 2B is often such a fillable position and because he lost those 2 injury Yeats in minors he's past age 30 by free agency by a few years. Arill glad he's on team now.
I wonder if by using the same Doctor to evaluate Correa as the Giants did Steve wasn't as all in as we think or had second thoughts and knew he would'nt pass the physical. Also Correa #'s were good not great and certainly should be attained by the combo of EE/Baty at of course huge saving's dollar wise and we really need to start playing these tauted prospects. The big question is will Buck play them as he seems more TC than I would like but with ST wide open for the kids to play with the WBC taking away the vets. Tom lets not forget the old Twin Zoilo Versalles as he had as big a drop off as probably any MVP after his 65' season and WS and was pretty much done at 26.
As far as McNeil goes I agree there has to be something else going on with him and the club as there's no way the difference in dollars would hold this up. I would much rather have him long term than Correa and I also wouldn't be surprised with the shorter RF fence he doesn't go long ball more often this year.
It seems obvious that you would check in with the Doc that nixed the deal for SF.
The puzzling thing is why the Mets didn't pursue a second opinion
Ruf for Donaldson? Hang on, Donaldson fills in for a year,gives Baty more time in the minors just like Nido/ Narvaiz give Alvarez more time to develop. Escobar can DH and give Vientos more time in the minors.
Great thoughts all. Thanks.
I’m a Jeff man, ven if the club is balking for some reason.
In fairness to Buck, McNeil was coming off his worst season and had to prove himself before becoming a middle-of-the order hitter. Once he did, he never lost the spot.
If Correa stays healthy, expect Cooperstown.
39.5 career b-r WAR through his age 27 season is a lot and is on same pace as Cal Ripken who didn't reach the 30h-homer mark till age 30 and had just one. Correa is just entering prime, his ceiling is ahead. The average Hall of Fame SS has 67.7 b-r WAR.
Andrew McCutchen at 35 has 47.0 b-r WAR.
I don't think the Mets extend McNeil. He's already in his 30's.
I think his long term replacement will be Jett Williams if the Mets don't do anything stupid like trading him. With the new rules, speed will become ever more valuable and Williams has that along with a bunch of other valuable tools and great mental make-up. I view him as Jeff McNeil with footspeed and greater athleticism.
In response to Gary Seagren:
I too think the Mets wanted out of the Correa deal, that this became a problem of Cohen's creation who acted impulsively...his fan side dominating as he also wanted Mets Fans' approval. His statements to the NY Post when Correa was signing with the Giants seemed staged and odd - and then he pounced when Giants deal fell through, and did so without thinking it fully through about Correa's health. He not only violated the rules by speaking about a player who wasn't signed, but never should have made any public comments unless the deal was official.
People bitched about Rocker. How’d that work out. Injured players hurt teams more than crummy players. Cohen is shooting for a WS and I’m betting he gets it.
Correa is on a trajectory, like David Wright was, but injuries and age throttled Wright’s career. An example of why long term contracts well into 30s can backfire badly.
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