1/25/23

Reese Kaplan -- What Does It Take To Win Ballgames?


One of the things baseball fans can never agree upon is what is the key to winning ballgames. It can be summed up fundamentally as scoring more runs than your opponent does. However, it can just as easily be approached as allowing fewer of the other team's runners from crossing the plate. 

 Others pontificate on the glory of a stellar defense that is the key to preventing baserunners from potentially inflating the score. Then there are folks who relish speed for stealing bases, taking an extra base or chasing down fly balls after a long sprint across the outfield grass. To hear the media and fans whine, the fact that the Mets were near the top of runs scored but only in the middle of the pack in watching a white sphere sail over the top of a green fence.

So now we're getting into the basics of it all. There is no single answer that is right nor is there a way to identify a single position of advocacy that is entirely wrong. The problem is how to get the various elements of scoring runs while preventing the other team from doing the same takes more than adding a single Gold Glove fielder, the top stolen base thief, another blistering long ball threat nor reinforcing with the best arms on the mound.


If you go over the roster changes already made, it would seem as if strengthening the starting rotation after the departures of Jacob deGrom, Taijuan Walker and Chris Bassitt was the first order of business. No one can deny the impact they were supposed to have had on the Mets' collective ability to keep their opponents batting averages and RBI totals sub-standard.

Replacing them with Justin Verlander and Jose Quintana was a pretty safe start to addressing the void. They are both veteran pitchers whose track records are well known. Verlander is clearly in the twilight of a very illustrious career and Quintana may have another year or two longer than his new teammate given he's starting the 2023 campaign when he'll turn 35.

The most interesting (and totally unknown) component to the starting rotation replacement reinforcements is Japanese import Kodai Senga. He's not yet pitched against the American major league hitters nor is he accustomed to the typical every fifth day pitching assignment. 

 What is most intriguing about him is the five year/$75 million contract which puts him more-or-less in the Carlos Carrasco price range but with the potential to be significantly better over the next half a decade. Of course, he could also turn into the second coming of Masato Yoshii. He spent two years with the Mets, more good than bad, but with a career ERA north of 4.00.


In the bullpen the Mets re-engineered themselves into a greater strength while Seth Lugo, Mychal Givens, Trevor May and Trevor Williams found new sources for their paychecks. Replacing them (after signing Edwin Diaz to the highest ever relief pitcher contract), they added back Adam Ottavino, newcomers Brooks Raley and stellar setup man David Robertson.  

You can make the argument that the current four are stronger than the previous quartet, but everyone is still going to complain until the Mets add at least one more proven arm to the mix.

On the subject of defense, the Mets haven't done much at all. James McCann was a solid backstop if not much of a hitter. His replacement, Omar Narvaez has a stronger hitting than receiver reputation, but his presence is likely with an eye towards giving up-and-coming rookie Francisco Alvarez someone who literally speaks his language and has plenty of major league experience. The rest of the squad is pretty much unchanged.

Baserunning often seemed a secondary consideration for the 2022 Mets. With essentially the same cast of characters taking the field, it's not likely going to improve any.

Home run power overall is fairly static depending on what they wind up doing with the DH position. Yes, Daniel Vogelbach can hit the long ball against right handed pitching but no one knows where and when Mark Vientos, Tommy Pham, Eduardo Escobar and perhaps even Francisco Alvarez get penciled into the lineup regularly.

So overall it would seem that the Mets successfully approached bettering both the starting rotation and the relief corps but have not done much to help make it any easier to score runs to win games. Defense remains static (or perhaps not quite as good as it was) and baserunning still does not seem to be a major part of their daily skill set.

Time is not over for the off-season and there is plenty of time for additional free agent signings, trades and rookie hot shots affecting the score of games. Hey, even Darin Ruf could rediscover why he still earns a paycheck.  

9 comments:

Tom Brennan said...

Fangraphs has Kodai Senga at over 10 Ks per 9, a 3.73 ERA, but just 10-9. If he has that ERA and fans them like that, my guess is more like 13-8.

TexasGusCC said...

A few points of disagreement:
- You cannot say that they added Ottavino without mentioning him originally. That’s sneaky. In fact, they lost more “name” potential in the pen than they added.
- McCann had a couple of good offensive years before coming to the Mets. Something went wrong in Queens, but his hard hit numbers were good last year. If he wasn’t redundant to Nido, he would still be a Met.
- The Mets replaced the lost starting pitchers with starters of similar numbers/stature, but the real key is going to be the health. Last year losses of starts by their main five starters was the biggest factor in not having enough lead to get to the finish line when the offense went cold in September and the other starters that were carrying the load (Bassitt and Walker) conked out.
- The biggest addition going into this year are the expectations. Last year’s team had laser expectations, but this year’s team will allow the other two powerhouses in the division to have less national glare. While we love reading stories about our team every time we turn around, and that certainly sells tickets and advertisement, truth is that players that can be relaxed do better. Do we really expect McNeil to win another batting title? Do we expect Nimmo to be a five WAR player again (although that is probably closer in odds than McNeil winning a batting title)? What if Escobar realizes it’s not September 2022 anymore and goes back to being a pumpkin?
- What if Showalter doesn’t have enough relievers to burn through. Yesterday Tom wrote that the two World Series winners only used 15 pitchers each. But, when starts are five innings or six at the most, and manager won’t use a guy for a second inning, he will use as many arms as there are on the planet, if he can.

Reese Kaplan said...

I agree with you that health is the key factor that kept the team from achieving as much as they could have last year. Throw in the subpar seasons from all of the catchers and some of the other position players (like Escobar and Ruf) and you realize that they were lucky to score as many runs as they did.

Yes, Ottavino was like re-signing Diaz and Nimmo. He should have been classified that way.

Mack Ade said...

Not to sound like a wise ass but you win more games by scoring more runs than the other team... IN ANY WAY POSSIBLE

Woodrow said...

This team is loaded. And if a couple of the prospects come through it’s 100 wins again. And don’t forget Cohen,he’ll spend and spend and spend.

Paul Articulates said...

I agree with many of the things said in this post.
However, I think it was a disservice to Tomas Nido to not be mentioned as a contributor - he won a gold glove last year behind the plate "filling" for McCann. He is also someone who will help greatly with Alvarez' transition to the majors.

Anonymous said...

I think with Kodai Senga...

...that unless he somehow turns himself into either Mackey Sasser or Chuck Knoblauch somehow, we Mets fans should be "A-Okay" with this right-handed stud starter pitching here for our NY Mets!

Kodai Senga is going to win some big time games. In Japan, although not here in MLB, Kodai won over twice as many games as he had lost. (104 wins vs. 51 losses, and with a 2.42 ERA and his strikeout rate was outstanding)

That ain't apple strudel with puff pastry I tell ya'! He is the real deal!




Rds900 said...

The Mets will have a good season provided the rookies are given a fair chance.

Remember1969 said...

My biggest fear is the running game and the rule changes with number of throws to first base allowed and the bigger bases. I think the team that takes the best advantage of that will rule. There may be some surprise team that will excel here and show the rest of them what they are missing. I don't think the Mets are recognizing this enough and it will prove to be somewhat of an achilles heel for them.