Spring training is right around the corner (pitchers & catchers report 23 days from now on Feb 15). Front offices are working feverishly on putting the remaining pieces in place for the upcoming 2023 season. We have heard much from all the voices in the press and social media about what to expect for the upcoming year, but that only amounts to speculation by people that are no better at predicting the future than the rest of us.
The limitation we all face is that we view the future through a lens that was developed in the past. If a player had a great year last year, we all expect that player to excel again next year. That is not always the case. Things are constantly changing, and there are enough variables involved to make it impossible to really know what will happen. Some things should be fairly constant – like an improvement in a particular skill or knowledge gained. Other things are intangible like leadership and clubhouse chemistry. Players improve, but so do their opponents. Teams amass competitive intelligence and analytic evaluations that can change their approach against players that have improved weaknesses. So the only thing that we can be sure of is that there will be some surprises in the upcoming season.
What will be the surprises on the Mets? Who will exceed expectations that were developed based on last year’s performance? Who will fail to meet those expectations? Here are some of my predictions, none of which are guaranteed:
1) Daniel Vogelbach will have a breakout season. Left-handed Vogelbach showed a keen eye last year and proved the ability to hit to all fields, which is unique for a powerful hitter. Pitchers have learned not to pitch around him or try to force him to roll over on outside pitches. Without a shift and with pitchers trying to get ahead more, Vogelbach will now see more balls that he can pull, and there will be fewer players on his pull side to get him out. With more strikes to see and with a somewhat shortened distance to the Pepsi Porch, my guess is that we will see another 20-30 points on his batting average and 25-30 home runs from him.
2) Darrin Ruf will make the 26-man roster coming out of spring training. Darrin is the guy most Mets fans wrote off long ago. He struggled mightily when he came to the club in a mid-season trade and began to feel the wrath of the media as his numbers did not improve, putting immense pressure on him to perform – which usually has the opposite effect. Now with Tommy Pham joining the team, prospects Alvarez, Baty, and Vientos pushing for their roster spots, Ruf will face a very competitive spring. Often, competition brings out the best in people and if he can put last year behind him you may see a different player out there. He hit in the .270s for the Giants in the 2020 and 2021 season, so the talent is there. His motivation is to stay in the game – if he washes out in the spring, there is not going to be much market for this 37 year old DH.
3) Jose Butto will be the first call-up in 2023. While much attention has been focused on the Mets’ revamp of the pitching staff with the big name signings of Justin Verlander, Jose Quintana, and Kodai Senga, the pitching staff always cycles through many arms during a season because modern day arms are just not as durable. We have all talked about the depth with guys like Megill, Peterson, and Lucchesi being possible long relievers or spot starters. One would expect them to be the “next arm up” in the event that one of the top 5 starters is sidelined. My prediction is that Butto excels at AAA Syracuse and gets a shot to fill as a 5 starter before we get to the all-star break. Butto registered a 0.95 WHIP and 0.198 BA against for Syracuse last year. He only gave up one HR every 12 innings. When you keep the opposition off the bases and avoid the long ball, you can provide many effective innings. He got roughed up a little in MLB last year, but what new call-up doesn’t? This year will be different.
I’m sure there will be some other opinions among the readers, as these are not the first thoughts that come to mind. But remember that every year is different, and what unfolds in 2023 will leave you wondering – how did he know that?
13 comments:
My guess is Butto stands a very good chance to be the next SP, but only if Peterson is converted to the Mets pen.
My heart is with Voggy, but I'm not that confident here as you. I think Vientos will replace him around the all-star break.
Ruf? Maybe dog catcher.
Escobar,he’s the third baseman coming out. Of ST and he runs with it.
Mark Vientos gets called up in May (after his annual spring swoon) excels at RH platoon at DH and takes the full time job in Aug. Vientos will have a long career in MLB because he is very good at hitting a baseball and with the NL having DH, his defensive liabilities can be overlooked
Love the comments - keep 'em coming. What's your surprise of the year?
Paul,
Maybe I am only being hopeful,but I honestly believe Baty will be our third baseman and will be a very pleasant surprise.
There are a few signings this team went through in 2022 that kind of/sort of made me scratch my head a little bit. Daniel Vogelbach and Darin Ruf were two of these.
These two players were mainly looked at by this Mets ballclub for their DH possibilities. While Vogelbach did have a huge 2019 homerun tally with 30 dingers, his overall batting average that year was a very scary .207. He never even came close in his MLB career again in homeruns to this 2019 season, mainly because he never got that same large number of at bats. If given good health and the chance to come up to bat 400+ times a season, he would probably average about 21/22 dingers. But the real problem with Vogelbach being this team's DH in 2023, is in the batting average department where his career batting average of .218 (over 1,305 MLB at bats) is just way too low to be considered a top competitor for any record amongst all the 2023 MLB DH's. More wisely, a batter who can hit 22 homeruns a season while still maintaining a decent batting average would probably be much more preferred for next season.
What about bringing David Wright back for this DH role?
David has a career .296 BA over thirteen NY Mets seasons, with 242 homeruns to his total. He is only forty years old now, same as Justin Verlander, and he needs just .004 more batting average points to retire a true .300 hitter in MLB which would be great to see.
Darin Ruf's 2022 NY Mets debut was most abysmal. He hit .152 BA with 0 homeruns over 66 at bats. When combined with his SF Giants portion of the same 2022 season, before coming over to the Mets, Darin hit just .216 BA with 11 homeruns over 268 at bats. Darin has never been considered a true homerun power bat, and holds a career .239 BA with 67 homeruns over a nine year career with three teams.
I'd probably rather go with switch hitters Eduardo Escobar (a .254 career BA with 158 HR's over twelve years) and Mark Vientos (a true rookie status) with a deserving 2022 AAA Syracuse BA of .280 with 24 homeruns and 72 RBI's. Feed the fish pond with youth where possible.
Why?
Mainly because either Eduardo Escobar and Mark Vientos could be used as utility players switch-off DH's and infield substitution if someone there needed a game off or was injured. Both players are exceptionally exciting players to watch, and this would be one good way to keep them both in the games for the Mets in 2023.
The pitching, the pitching, the pitching.
If you have hung around as a MLB fan long enough, you have seen what normally determines which teams advance to a higher level playoff position, with the possibility of making it to the "World Series." No, it is not the concessions at a particular stadium as many may have thought, although that would be quite nice from my point of view too. To me, two things most often dictate which team progresses to the next round. They are: (1) The team's "gaining momentum" beginning normally in the last one month of the regular season and then grows even more once the playoff format begins. Momentum can even sometimes unlikely carry a team, like this year's Philadelphia Phillies, all the way into the World Series faceoff. (2) The starting pitching and closer reliever successes in succession. Say that five times already!
So in synopsis:
1. The momentum. 2. The starting and closer pitching being better than the opposing teams.
Starter Depth
The MLB season has become longer. Pitchers throw harder and faster. It's a no-brainer to have plotted in two more starters than just the starting five pitchers.
Here's my own choices:
Tylor Megill. Josh Walker, after being adequately stretched out. I see something there with this young arm lefty that would be a nice fit.
Mr. Mack's favorite (RSP kid) Jose Butto. Maybe after a decent progression in AAA Syracuse earlier on.
Joey Lucchesi. Although i have forgotten what he even looks like actually. Would be nice to get him back out there and pitching well again.
And Stephen Nogosek. We just need to see him more at this level.
These five mainly.
Sidebar NYK: Please trade for Myles Turner who is 26 years old, and averages ten points more then "Peanut Brittle" a game, with basically the same number of rebounds per. Offer Indy "Robinson, McBride, and Reddish. Or perhaps: Hartenstein, Reddish, Fournier, and Rose. Something like this anyway. Indy knows Derrick.
Myles Turner is the NY Knicks missing player to the NBA Championship. Their team is young. Some positions have youthful duplicates. Randle makes the perfect team Captain. But they need one more quality can count on big man center. Turner.
NYK's Mitchell Robinson is sort of like past NY Mets starter Jake deGrom in the injuries sustained department. In end summary, a wise team has got to move on without these season ruining megaliths, no matter how much it hurts the management and the team's fans.
Sad, but so true. We fans hate to see this happen, but it is "a must" in order to maximize team success.
In the interests of brevity and focus in responses, I think your Vogelbach points are excellent and I think if he comes in without dropping 20-50 pounds, he is a fool, given that a transformed physique may get him a nice free agent deal when eligible.
Ruf? Bad 2022 turns into continued 2023 decline.
Butto will be the next Dillon Gee if he can produce a decent homers-allowed rate.
As time goes on this winter, I am more perplexed as to when our top 4 bat prospects will get lots of meaningful playing time. But it will be in 2023.
Vogy needs more early count aggression. Less early Duda. Need power from him
Drop out Peterson’s bad 2021 and in 2020 and 2022, he is 13-7, 3.70, with 166 Ks in 155 IP. If all of that was done in 2022, and Peterson was a free agent, fans would give him a big multi year deal.
I hope you are wrong. If Vogy, Ruf and/ or Butto make the team, we are moving in the wrong direction.
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