1/16/23

Reese Kaplan -- When the Best Hitting in Baseball is Undervalued


Baseball is a both a game and a business. Most people tend to focus on the former without thinking too much about the latter. For Mets fans that differentiation should be painfully clear after having watched the misgivings of the Payton, deRoulet and Wilpon regimes. 

Decisions which appeared to have positive or negative immediate repercussions to what happened on the field often also had a corresponding impact on future actions.

Now with the Steve Cohen reign in full effect, you would think that the business consequences of actions taken to impact the daily wins and losses were no longer going to pay in the future for what's done today. No, this realization was not about the Carlos Correa situation, the James McCann essential buyout nor any of the other many trades and free agent signings. It concerns a revelation over this weekend that could negatively affect the franchise for years to come.

When headlines came out that the Mets had reached pre-arbitration settlements with 6 of 7 players, it seemed like great news for the team. After all, when both sides agree on a salary then it usually means that the relationship is a firm and solid one that ended in a joint venture of pay-for-play that each felt was equitable and reasonable.

However, when someone is not on the same page when it comes to compensation, leaving the judgment to allegedly impartial arbiters, it would seem that it's a road to a hasty end to the player's relationship with the team. 

If the team gets to pay what he wanted, then the player will likely feel undervalued and unappreciated. If the ruling comes down in favor of the player, then the team is going to feel they were made to look cheap and unnecessarily disagreeable when it came to making things right with the player. 

Bad image hurts just as much as low salary, so an arbitration decision either way can be detrimental to the player's future with the ballclub.


In this particular case, it's doubly frustrating to see that Jeff McNeil, owner of a lifetime .307 batting average, was apparently not worth the $7.75 million he desired in 2023 salary. 

It's not as if he underperformed during the past baseball campaign. He actually hit .326 which was the highest batting average of any ballplayer in all of the major leagues. 

The Mets offered what was projected as a new salary -- $6.25 million. That $1.5 million gap is likely pocket lint to many of the higher priced stars on the team, but to McNeil it represented his first gesture towards equitable pay for the work he delivers.


So while the club was perfectly willing to spend $315 million on a contract for one infielder, already spent $340 million on the contract for another, then shelled out $14.5 million for the big guy on first base, that $1.5 million all of the sudden seemed like a mountain instead of a molehill.

Whichever way the arbiter decides to go with the 2023 salary, it doesn't seem to bode well for Jeff McNeil's long term future in a Mets uniform. He can't feel good it had to come down this road to figuring out his baseball value. 

The front office likely felt that despite winning the major league batting title, chicks dig the long ball and it made more sense to go the extra mile for a slugger than for a contact hitter.

Taking it a bit further, the Mets are somewhat embarrassingly rich with middle infielders going forward. Everyone is aware of the hitting exploits of Brett Baty, Mark Vientos and Ronny Mauricio. 

It's possible the club felt that its infield needs can easily be addressed in the future and there was no need to go all the way in order to keep McNeil happy. Also, if the club should win the arbitration hearing, then his lower salary makes him that much more attractive as a trade chip.

Many people have gone on record from casual fans to baseball media professionals suggesting the club is foolish not to attempt to extend both Pete Alonso and Jeff McNeil in the pattern used by the Houston Astros, Atlanta Braves and other ballclubs. It would seem that while the Alonso door is still likely open given his more-than-fair pre free agency salary assignments, it would appear that the one for McNeil has been not too gently closed.

While no one is suggesting McNeil will turn into a latter day Pete Rose (sans gambling), Tony Gwynn nor Kirby Puckett, the fact is that career .300 hitters don't grow on trees. For a club that was higher in offense without being at the top of the pack in home run power, it would seem that the efforts produced by someone like McNeil should be front and center in evaluating what he delivers to the team. His WAR for 2022 without much in the way of home runs and RBIs was still a highly respectable 5.7. 

It would seem that the potential $1.5 million of savings from a team willing to overpay for just about everyone else is a highly questionable business decision.  

9 comments:

Tom Brennan said...

Extend Jeff McNeil. Just like Daniel Murphy got better with time, still think we’ve not seen peak McNeil.

Tom Brennan said...

People get paid more for HRs and RBIs

Reese Kaplan said...

Tom Glavine said it best:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qLECMCargd8

bill metsiac said...

I agree that the team's refusal to pay what McNeil requested in senseless, and that extending him and Pete is the way to go.

But the much-maligned Fred Wilpon did exactly that for David twice and Jose almost-twice.

And Mrs. Payson was definitely regarded as a generous owner, contrasting with her daughtèrs and M Donald Grant.

The Wilpons didn't always spend wisely (remember "The Worst Team Money Could Buy"?), but pre-Madoff they had among the highest payrolls in MLB. And if my memory is accurate, they never went to Arbi with any player.

Post-Madoff they tightened their belts and the team suffered as a result.

Now we are blessed with the most free-spending owner anywhere, which makes the McNeil situation even stranger. But I still feel confident that he'll sign before reaching the arbitrator. And be righly/deservedly rewarded before reaching FA.

Mack Ade said...

There's just something fishy here

Tom Brennan said...

Bill, even for Cohen, the problem is the luxury tax - I read that Correa costs the Twins $33 million this year (no tax) and would have cost the Mets $63 million this year (with tax).

I just feel they are pennies-wise, pounds-foolish in not automatically giving McNeil $7.5 million when Pete is getting $14.5.

$1.5 million (more than the $6.25 the Mets offer) to keep Jeff from feeling slighted and perhaps thinking screw this, I am gone at free agency is smart and appropriately rewarding. C'mon Steve, pay Jeff.

It was not just his bat - he was excellent in the field last year at multiple positions, which Pete was not - and it all counts.

Tom Brennan said...

Reese, funny video does say it all.

That's why I think McNeil's approach should be "I've got my bat title, now swing for the shortened right field fence". I could see him going small ball in April, building his average up, then as the ball starts to carry more, shifting like he did in 2019 to swinging for power, except starting to do so earlier in the season than he did in 2023.

Murphy did it, so can Jeff. If Jeff wants bigger bucks, remember this insulting 2023 arbitration offer.

By the way, Jeff is also hurt by Nimmo. How? Jeff's numbers as a top of the line up hitter in his career are every bit as good as Nimmo's if not better. And Nimmo got a boatload of cash.

bill metsiac said...

Nimmo got the boatload as a FA. If Pete were a FA, that $14.5 mil would look like petty cash. Can't compare any player's $$$ before and after FA.

But when the Yankees offer Gleyber Torres $9.5 mil (50% more than we offered Jeff), something is VERY wrong.

Paul Articulates said...

Reese, I think your post was spot on.
Extensions for both McNeil and Alonso would have been insurance for the future. One year deals and arbitration deals are just going to make next year much more difficult.

Particularly with McNeil, I feel the Mets are overlooking tremendous value. You listed his superlative hitting statistics, but he's more than just that. What other middle infielder on the market can also play corner outfield positions with no degradation in team defense? He could also potentially be a solution at third if he got enough reps in spring training.