1/13/23

Reese Kaplan -- Relax and Step Off the Post-Correa Ledge


So there have been a few days since the implosion in the Carlos Correa negotiations which saw him return to his former home in Minneapolis after beating a hasty retreat from there in the quest of greater riches elsewhere. 

The amount of time on the contract and the average annual pay are down significantly from the original San Francisco offer and the New York follow up, but no one is going to be taking up a collection to help Correa make his Bentley payments. He's got a job, the Giants have moved on and now the Mets must do the same.

Let's take a moment to reflect what the team was like in 2022 and as it stands right now what the team is like for 2023. To begin, let's compare the state of starting pitching:

  • Jacob deGrom
  • Max Scherzer
  • Chris Bassitt
  • Carlos Carrasco
  • Taijuan Walker

Wow, that's quite a starting rotation filled with two multiple Cy Young Award winners and three solid veterans who could be first or second starters with most other franchises. However, things didn't quite work out that way. 

If you reflect back on the 2022 IL, it was quite busy there. Bassitt led the staff with 30 starts which meant he was only down for about 4 of them. Then came Taijuan Walker and Carlos Carrasco tied with 29 apiece. They were followed by Max Scherzer with 23 and then finally Jacob deGrom with just 11.

Filling in for the would-be start staff included 19 starts by David Peterson, 9 starts apiece by Trevor Williams and Tylor Megill, and single starts by Mychal Givens, Jose Butto and Thomas Szapucki. That's 40 games started by folks other than the players penciled in to lead the team into contention.

Going into 2023 the Mets rotation on paper is at least as good, if not better. They are headed by twin multi Cy Young Award winners once again, but this time it's Justin Verlander who accompanies Max Scherzer with Jacob deGrom off in quest of a yellow rose in Texas. 

Jose Quintana joins the fold in place of Taijuan Walker who must like cheese steak and awful lot. Then international import Kodai Senga looks to equal or better the 3.42 ERA provided by now Canadian hurler Chris Bassitt who hopes to fare better up there than did other former Mets like Steven Matz and R.A. Dickey.


On the infield, as of right now it's a wash. With third base open in a competition between Eduardo Escobar, Brett Baty and Mark Vientos, the Mets will be the same or perhaps better.

Behind the plate it's a bit uncertain, but the 2022 season was one for the record books with the horrific play of James McCann, the better defense but far from stellar hitting of Tomas Nido, and a late September cup of coffee from Francisco Alvarez.


With McCann now gone (along with money to make accepting him a bit less unpalatable), the job for number one catcher is somewhat up for grabs. In addition to the return of Nido, the Mets signed a decent hitting Omar Narvaez who may be handed the Opening Day assignment. The beefy Venezuelan is a career .258 hitter which would be All Star level by comparison to what was done last season. 

Of course, all of this conjecture presumes that Francisco Alvarez begins the season in AAA to help refine the defensive side of his game while also improving on his offensive stats after punishing pitchers in the lower minors. It would seem that 2023's catching will indeed be better but not quite at the Johnny Bench, Gary Carter nor Mike Piazza levels.

The outfield promises to be one and the same right now with the returning cast of new multi-millionaire Brandon Nimmo, returning multi-millionaire Starling Marte and the second year of the two-year commitment to multi-millionaire Mark Canha. The club most definitely could use some backup assistance here unless the plan is a lot of Luis Guilorme at second base with Jeff McNeil out there.


Designated hitter was another low light of the 2022 season. Daniel Vogelbach has been an extremely popular player in the many cities he's called home while in the major leagues, but there's no mistaking the narrow gate of his talent. He can drive pitchers batty with his good eye at the plate and he can hit home runs with the best of them against right handed pitching. 

That makes for a left handed slugger with very poor base running skills who is not going to displace Pete Alonso from first base.

In 2022 various folks were tried on the right side of the DH platoon with none faring very well at all. I won't upset your tummy by reciting all of the names, but suffice to say hitting against lefties was a "Ruffer" job than it should have been.

This part of the team is still unsettled going into 2023. Will Francisco Alvarez be asked to serve as a DH? What about Mark Vientos? How about Educardo Escobar if Baty wins the third base starting assignment? It's also entirely possible that the DH role in general is yet to be settled while the team contemplates the remaining free agents and trade candidates.

In the bullpen is where the club has seen the most change. Last season's squad included:

  • Edwin Diaz
  • Adam Ottavino
  • Drew Smith
  • Trevor Williams
  • Joely Rodriguez
  • Seth Lugo
  • Trevor May
  • Mychal Givens
  • Tylor Megill
  • David Peterson
  • Chasen Shreve
  • Tommy Hunter
  • Colin Holderman
  • Stephen Nogosek
  • Various others with fewer than 10 games

This year the new squad includes:

  • Edwin Diaz
  • Adam Ottavino
  • David Robertson
  • Brooks Raley
  • Drew Smith
  • Tylor Megill
  • David Peterson

Other contenders like Stephen Nogosek, Bryce Montes de Oca, Joey Lucchesi, John Curtiss, Tommy Hunter, Tayler Saucedo and Zach Greene vie for an opportunity to escape sunny Florida for rainy and chilly New York. The top four are at least as good as the top four from last season with a lot of unknowns after that (including whether or not Raley's stellar 2022 was an outlier or the mark of a very late bloomer).


It's entirely possible that the Mets may be looking to add another arm in the pen. There have been rumors about a Zach Britton negotiation, plus others like Andrew Chafin and Michael Fulmer are still looking for new paychecks. It's also possible that some of the Mets positional logjams may result in trades being made.

For now it would seem that the team taking the field for 2023 if healthy is at least as good if not better than the one that performed a 101 win season in 2022. Yes, Carlos Correa would have been a cherry on the cake, but think what his $315 million salary over the next dozen years could do at other positions to improve the team. All is far from lost.  

11 comments:

Tom Brennan said...

As big a fan I am of Vientos and Mauricio, maybe I am overvaluing them a bit? Neither are in MLB's top 100 prospects.

Management knows that, too, and may opt for another bat. Mo and Mark might do just fine in 2023, of course. I'm sure Jeff McNeil was not in the MLB Top 100 Prospects going into 2018...whoops.

bill metsiac said...

I'm surprised that Mo isn't in the Top 100. There's a lot to like about his performance to date, even without considering his play as among the youngest in his leagues. Add in his MVP play in Winter ball, and his power from both sides of the plate, and he's a potential All-star if he can improve pitch selection and find a position.

I agree completely with Reese's optimism for this season, and I'm sure additions to the roster are coming in the next 33 days. IMO the biggest question mark is Senga, who has never pitched on this side of the Pacific. The Mets have never been lucky with Japanese signings in the past, and hopefully Senga can be our first player from there to become a star.

A full season of Verlander vs Jake's 11 starts should be a definite plus. And I can't wait to see how he and Max can lead us to the promised land.

Mack Ade said...

They will add another.outfielder and I believe they are then done

Woodrow said...

Whatever you do,don’t trade Mauricio! He’s going to have the best career of all the prospects.

Woodrow said...

OFer and a lefty reliever,McCuthcheon and Britton?

bill metsiac said...

Brittan is a question mark, after injuries last year. I think Chafin is a better play, and I am surprised that both are still available.

Ernest Dove said...

Metstwitter drama will never end. Correa was going to the Giants before all the LOLMETS nonsense started. For all we know Francisco Alvarez, the number overall prospect in baseball, and top 25 mlb caliber prospect Brett Baty will shine.

Anonymous said...

Reese

I never really saw Carlos Correa as the most essential possible signing with these NY Mets for third base this off season. To me, Correa and Lindor are almost exact duplicates of one another stats wise. One has a career BA of .279 and the other has a .277 career BA. Duplicates. Clones if you will. Except Lindor has like 29 more HR's over the same eight seasons of play and can steal more bases with his feet and ankles.

Honestly, did we really need both players here to be a good team for 2023?

A: I say not. This same NY Mets team won 101 games in 2022 with two different third basemen.

Now all the local sports rags are claiming that the NY Mets need to grab some other free agent overpriced third baseman fast, to make up for the losing of Carlos Correa. Sound reasoning for this group.

So what really is the problem here you ask?

A: It's currently a situation of simply not having enough real confidence in the Mets top deserving MiLB players. Namely Brett Baty, Mark Vientos, and Ronny Mauricio to win the third base job outright in Spring Training. That simple.

Same thing as the NY Knicks having eighty-five really terrific guards on the team all at the same time, but no top-five NBA center anywhere to be found in orange and blue who can play Joel Embiid. The Knicks are a good team right now, but just not a great one with this one obvious flaw with their game. They need to find their own Patrick Ewing to balance out their game.

Live and learn I guess.

Anonymous said...

Tom:

I looked at a lot of Kodai Senga video, and I liked his pitching mechanics even more than Jacob deGrom's. Not kidding. Senga has a beautiful long delivery stride, hides the ball well, throws hard, and has the three pitches it will take to win many games. I think Kodai will win more games in 2023 than even deGrom does.

With Jeff McNeil, Brandon Nimmo, Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, Starling Marte, and now a new catcher who can actually hit in new acquisition Omar Narvaez, this team can actually afford to stick their proverbial neck out playing a deserved rookie at third base.

I sincerely hope that it can.

Viper said...

Baty, Vientos and Mauricio now have a chance to impress during spring training. I agree in that Mauricio has the most potential to be a very good player.

Not signing Correa may end up being a blessing in disguise if Vientos hits well as a part time DH and Baty can claim 3B for himself with Mauricio learning to play the OF at tripe A.

The one thing I would have loved to see was the defense with Correa at 3B, Lindor at SS and Guillorme at 2B. But not caving in to Boras was the right move.

Tom Brennan said...

Good to hear about Senga mechanics.

Viper, I agree. Kids need to bust it out of the gate in spring training. And I hope Mauricio is shagging flies daily. It is all about securing MLB playing time.