11/29/09

Breakfast Links: Ike, Roy, Black Friday, Tobi, David, Sheff, and Bryce Harper

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Ike Davis:


He was the Mets first-round pick in 2008. He is coming off a strong showing at Double-A Binghamton and the Arizona Fall League (.341) and, according to Ron, who knows about major league talent, could start for the Mets now. “I believe he’ll play 10-15 years in the big leagues without a problem,” Ron said of his son. “I know he’s a great defensive first baseman, has a lot of power and I know he’ll keep his average up. Most guys are going for stats, but he’ll do things to sacrifice for the team. The Mets definitely got a winner.” -
NYP




Roy Halladay:

Let’s face it. We all know that this is Omar Minaya and Jerry Manuel’s last season with the Mets if they don’t win in 2010. Do you think they’re dumb enough to entrust their careers to Daniel Murphy at first base and Omir Santos at catcher for the entire season? I don’t. And that would be the scenario if they trade for Halladay and Wells, barring a massive reconfiguration of the roster.

To pull off this move, the Mets would need to unload Luis Castillo for starters which hasn’t proved to be easy. They would probably need to get rid of another player(s) in the $10 million/year range to cover the salary of bringing in a second baseman and catcher. It starts to get very complicated, more so than is likely to be realistic in one offseason. - Mets Report



Black Friday:

It was a tale of two Black Fridays for New York’s baseball teams. The Yankees Clubhouse on 42nd Street, still basking in the glow of the team’s 27th World Series championship, was flooded with customers elbowing through racks of commemorative T-shirts, hats and jackets. Pedestrians stopped to snap photographs of the storefront. Two blocks east, the Mets Clubhouse hosted a handful of passers-by who gazed at the rows of jerseys and sweatshirts, many 50 percent off. The store seemed to be as quiet as Shea Stadium was after Carlos Beltran looked at Adam Wainwright’s called third strike to end the 2006 season. -
NYT



Tobi Stoner:

While trying to determine if Stoner’s winter numbers were fluky, I checked out his consistent if not exciting minor league stats. From St. Lucie in 2007 to Buffalo in 2009, Stoner generally has struck out twice as many as he’s walked. Hopefully this is something he can keep up at the major league level, because he allows too many home runs to compensate for a K:BB ratio lower than 2:1. Another sign of Stoner’s consistency is his FIP (fielding independent pitching) statistic, which has hovered just above 4.00 for his entire career. Posting a FIP of 4.00 as a major league starter would make Stoner worthy of a rotation spot, but only time will tell if he will hit a wall at the major league level or keep on getting batters out with his good-not-great stuff. His Dominican starts have certainly been encouraging and Stoner should contend for at least a bullpen spot in spring training. - Daily Stache


David Wright:

This is a look at baserunning runs, excluding stolen base attempts. Here's the basic method:

•For all plays, we consider the lead runner only.

•We figure out the average change in run expectancy for the lead runner for each non-discretionary running event - typically a ball in play (either a hit, error or out). Those plays are grouped by:

◦The number of outs in the inning.

◦The type of event - single, double, etc. (A fielder's choice is considered an ordinary out.)

◦For batting outs, whether the ball was hit in the air or on the ground.

◦The position of the player who fields the ball.

•Then we figure the change in run expectancy for the lead runner on each individual baserunning play. For a non-discretionary event, we subtract the average value of that running play. For a discretionary running play, such as a wild pitch or passed ball, we do not - a runner is not penalized for the decision not to run.

That gives us our baserunning runs. Your leaders (and trailers) for 2009:

1. Michael Bourn

2. Dexter Fowler

3. Eugenio Velez

4. Chone Figgins

5. Scott Podsednik

6. Brandon Phillips

7. Emilio Bonifacio

8. David Wright

Hardball Times



Gary Sheffield:

Which is too bad. The vanishing of Sheffield in September surely was a combination of the disagreement between Mets management and Sheffield, and Sheff’s physical ailments. But he did prove, through it all, that he could still hit. It’s doubtful he’ll ever again be an everyday player, but the bat speed is there, and the behavioral problems are an overblown fallacy. If Sheff wants to play in 2010, he will, and he’ll be productive. Not the superstar he once was, but productive. The shame of it is, just before “the incident”, Sheffield received a custom-made first baseman’s glove (as part of an endorsement deal). He knew the outfield was getting to be too much for his old bones, and that Daniel Murphy would need a platoon partner. But since he never had the chance to show what he could do at the position, we’ll never know if he and Murphy would’ve been a good tandem. Of course, if the Mets acquire a big-time first baseman and/or send Murphy packing, this point is moot. In fact, the whole argument is moot because “the incident” effectively eliminated Sheff’s tenure as a Met.For five months though, Gary Sheffield was fun to watch and a big reason the Mets had any hope at all. - link



Bryce Harper:

Although the money would have still been there for Harper had he entered the 2011 MLB Draft, why not enter a year early, while increasing his leverage, and making him a year younger at the time of the draft. Those two factors, with the addition of Scott Boras will equal out to what should be the largest bonus ever for a high school player. Even if he is not the first player drafted, which he should be, Harper will not get far. Teams like Boston, New York, and many more will not let a talent like Harper slip by them. I see both sides of the argument, but to me, Harper is making the choice he wants, and who are we to question that? -
MLB Draft

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