Posted by Stephen Guilbert at 2:00 PM
After Dahl, I will profile Courtney Hawkins to finish this draft series before Monday’s festivities. I will do blurbs on some other players that the Mets might look at in later rounds but if you would like me to write anything about a specific player, let me know.
Today’s player profile looks at Keith Law’s projection for the Mets in his mock draft 2.0, OF David Dahl.
Previous player profiles:
Mets 2012 Draft- David Dahl- OF-
Oak Mountain High School, AL
Jonathan Mayo projection: Pick 17- Blue Jays
Baseball America/Jim Callis projection: Pick 12- Mets
Keith Law: Pick 12- Mets
Matt Grabusky: Pick 16- Nationals
Mets select: 12.
As you can see above, the Mets have been tied to Dahl by a number of reputable sources. This could be for a number of reasons (I have not heard any of these confirmed, for the record): A private workout held for Dahl, insider information, educated guesses based on last year’s pick, Brandon Nimmo, and the thought that the Mets will take an outfielder (Dahl becomes the choice because Buxton, Almora, and Hawkins all project to be off the board by 12).
Here is what you need to know about David Dahl:
Scouts have concern over his ability to stick in center despite good speed and a plus arm.
Line-drive swing, good bat speed, contact hitter. Scouts project that Dahl, at best, becomes a 20-20 center fielder with an above average glove.
America compared Dahl to Jeremy
Hermida (as an amateur) who went pick 1-11 in 2002.
Got over a bout with mono that led to a diminished draft stock that has continued to climb all the way up to draft day.
Concerns over results against weak competition.
I keep saying there are going to be options at #12. While my top 11 guys from months ago seem to be filing right in to positions 1 through 11, I still believe one will fall to us for pick 12 and we get an A+ prospect. Dahl, in my eyes, is not one of them. This quotation from Baseball
my concerns with Dahl as a pro:
“They (scouts) also aren't all sold on his instincts to be a center fielder, though most believe he'll stick in the position. Dahl's biggest weakness is his low-energy demeanor. Some scouts consider him simply unmotivated by middling high school competition, while others see a low motor and question his desire to be great. The tools are all there for a first-round power/speed center fielder”.
Mets fans seem opposed to Gavin Cecchini and I have no idea why. I would much prefer Cecchini or Hawkins to Dahl and we know one (if not all three) will be available by the time the Mets pick.
I still have my heart set on Fried, Almora, Hawkins, Zimmer, Heaney, and, yes, Stroman. One of those players will be on the board and, if not, I am full-speed ahead on the Cecchini train. Also, if anyone has any other mixed metaphors related to draft prospects, please do let me know.
Dahl just is not the guy I want in this draft. Or let’s put it this way: I would much prefer toolsy speedster and future gold-glove candidate Lewis Brinson to David Dahl. Brinson projects to still be around by the Mets supplemental #35 pick (where I am crossing my fingers they take him).
I do not mean to sound too harsh regarding Dahl. He is an outstanding baseball player and will certainly make a formidable professional athlete. However, I think there are better options for the Mets at #12.
Edit: Keith Law released his third mock draft on June 1st and has the
Rockies taking Dahl two picks
before the Mets select.