D-Whit - To Trade or Not To Trade that is the Question


 The Trade Market and Jon Niese. 
Why the AL not NL makes sense

The Matz injury changed everything. I don't see Sandy making any major deals now. If they traded Niese it makes the rotation too thin. Gee isn't trustworthy right now and Montero still isn't even throwing off a mound yet. If Matz is out for more than the expected three weeks then you could see Verrett as the next emergency starter or if they went for the bold move-Fulmer. A long shot but he's come a long way this year. A healthy Fulmer heading into 2016 plus the ascension of Meisner will make for an interesting off season and spring training. My prediction: the Mets replicate what the A's do with their pitching-build a staff-trade impending FA's or let them walk-reload and then repeat the process. Harvey, deGrom, Wheeler, Syndegaard=Hudson, Mulder, Zito, Harden and Fulmer, Meisner, Ynoa, Cessa, Lary replace the departed. I'm not saying it's exactly the same but I feel it's going to be very similar if Alderson remains in charge.

As for Niese, if he's traded, a remote possibility now, I believe he'd go to an AL team.

Why not the NL?

Well for one, the Dodgers will probably land Hamels or Cueto-who knows with their deep pockets maybe both-and as for the Cubs it wouldn't surprise me if Samardjza goes crosstown to the northside for a return engagement. The problem with the NL is that most of these teams in the playoff chase don't have glaring pitching needs. Also, Niese is probably your 8th or 9th option in a trade with people like i mentioned being available as well as Latos, Haren, Kennedy, and possibly Buchholz and Kazmir. I'd add Shields to that list as well.

Speaking of Shields, if he does become available, the Cubs could make sense there too. I can't see them getting a pitcher for the stretch run without parting with Baez at the very least.

Getting back to Niese though. The AL has a lot of staffs in need of arms: Tigers, Twins, Astros, Jays, O's, among others. So let's indulge in some conjecture and see where Niese could land in an AL trade.

Orioles-If Matusz steps up they would already have two southpaws in the starting 5, but if he falters, then Niese would make a lot of sense here.

Blue Jays-Buhrle is their only left starter so Niese would be a good fit. After getting fleeced in the Dickeey trade who knows if Anthopoulos would trade with the Mets again.

Tigers-Niese would be a huge upgrade over the revolving door they've had at the 5 spot this season.

Twins-Nolasco is out and Big Pelf is imploding so the need is there. He could be a nice compliment to Milone on the portside of the Minnesota rotation.

Royals-Gutherie has been a disaster and Duffy a disappointment. Losing Gordon puts more pressure on KC pitching. Niese to the Royals makes a lot of sense.

Astros-The back end of the Houston staff has been shaky. Niese would make a nice addition to the rotation not just this season but long term. Houston has prospects to trade and is the surprise team of the season. They will probably be players for the bigger deadline pitchin names but this might end up being the most logical destination for Niese.

The Matz injury may make this a moot point but with this team...who knows???

Should the Mets keep or trade Niese? If not, why? If so, who do you think makes the best trade partner?


Reese Kaplan said...

I was prepared for the "we just couldn't find a 'difference maker'" argument or "No one was willing to meet our price" argument. I don't want to see the new excuse being, "Well, with Matz out we can't make a deal." Sorry, that just won't cut it.

I would go with Verrett or Fullmer at the 5th starter position while Gee and Montero continue trying to work their way back and see if we could address other needs in exchange for Niese or Colon.

Thomas Brennan said...

Just don't trade Niese cheap. If we can improve thru a strong deal, Do it.

We'll know very soon if Fulmer is durable and capable of dominating. Familia to my knowledge never had a stretch of starts like Fulmer's last 6. So Fulmer might be a great power arm in the pen, possibly by Sept, or early in 2016. So I would think other teams would be very interested in him.

Hobie said...

Toronto: Niese, Granderson & Reynolds for Jose (add other fodder on either side as necessary).
Call up Conforto. (Maybe Castellanos too; DFA Mayberry/Campbell)



ZachBoyer said...

Keep him. Got another pitcher who can give me a 3.61 ERA? If not, I'm not sacrificing 1/5 games while we're in the thick of a playoff race. Besides, what would Niese net you? Give me a scenario in which he nets you something that helps you this year. He's more a player you trade to a contender for prospects, and mid-level ones at that. Are you playing for a year other than 2015? I'm not.

And he's one of the only pitchers whose innings aren't being capped. Wait until we actually do make the playoffs and we have Gee and C. Torres starting games 3 and 4 of the NLCS. All of Queens will revolt. Keep him.

Anonymous said...

I agree on Niese, Zach, as I think he's worth more to the Mets now than he would as a trade chip -- unless SA can't work a package deal.

There's been a funny dynamic with Niese. After his recent quality starts, I keep seeing comments that amount to, "Now maybe other teams will start to value Niese on the open market."

But I keep thinking the opposite. Or, no, the complementary piece to that realization. "Now maybe the METS will start to value Niese."

He's everything a contending team could ask for from a #5 starter, and a clear asset scheduled to make about 12-13 more starts. That's not something to give away lightly. What's more, I strongly suspect that Matz will be out quite a bit longer than 3 weeks. You've got to let this kid heal.

To me, I bring up Conforto and try to trade for another piece, possibly Parra, or possibly a Zobrist type. If Wright is coming back, Murphy/Flores instantly become the Zobrist piece. Segura would have to come cheap -- I would never flip Montero for him -- but he is a better ballplayer than Tejada. Marginally.

Going "big" sounds good, but if the Mets are going to trade a Syndergaard, then I think they should do it when they can net maximum value, i.e., when more teams are in the bidding. Right now more than half the league would be unwilling to significantly weaken their MLB roster even for a Syndergaard. If you do that trade (and I would not; I'd increase payroll instead), it's ideally a winter-meeting deal.

James Preller

ZachBoyer said...

I feel like the Mets do value Niese. Hence why he's still here and why I'll venture to guess he'll be here after 7/31. But how's that for a bold prediction: The Mets shockingly keep all their pitching and do nothing at the deadline? I feel like it's the Mets FANS (the short-sighted portion of us, anyway) who are undervaluing Niese right now.

Especially with the Matz injury. Otherwise I'd have given it a little consideration. But to play devil's advocate: He comes out of the break and has 3 stinkers, everyone will be like "You should have sold high!" And I'll be thinking, "Hmm … maybe we should have?"

But I'll venture out a little further and predict he's our 5th starter until Wheeler's back next year. And only then, once Wheeler's back and going, would I even consider trading one of our SPs. I want to see where everyone's at this time next year. Syndergaard could have the highest upside of them all.

Anonymous said...

To me, obviously, the answer moving forward is payroll, i.e., free agency -- not trading, say, a Syndergaard.

Keeping Syndergaard has financial value too, a value that might make raising the payroll for a hitter the financially responsible move.

OTOH, more and more I am recognizing the terrible risk that comes with free agency, and the lack of "good, productive contracts" that seem to be signed. Not just for the Mets, but across all of baseball. By the nature of the marketplace, free agents tend to get paid too much, and for too long. Maybe a team is better off to trade for assets who are young or already signed to reasonable contracts.

I'd be very wary of Justin Upton even if the Mets could afford him.

That said, no matter what, payroll must go up significantly. And soon. I'd try to extend deGrom right now .

James Preller

Anonymous said...

The answer to the question to trade or not to trade for SA depends on what is being offered in return. Niese can still help us this year and the next couple of years. The same most be true of what the Mets would be getting in return. I don't want to see them trade Niese for a 4th St. Lucie outfielder. I would be o.k. with a trade for prospects if it were something like the trade that got us Herrera and Black. I with rather it be part of a package that would land us a shortstop.

Matz going down does give Sandy a reason not to trade Niese for less than fair value. He has value to the Mets. It does not give Sandy a reason to not trade Niese if value is being offered back for him. It's that simple and I'm sure Sandy gets it. Matz injury may even help get more in return. GMs should expect the Mets to give him away.
All what I said is true for Colon also.
Do not trade any of the fab five unless a team is willing to over pay.
I saw fans wanting to use Syndergaard once Matz showed what he can do. Syndergaard has taken huge leaps in is game in just 10 or so games. I don't think most fans realize what the Mets have with these 5 yet. Put a little bit of speed and defense around them with players who execute offensively. If they do the small things like moving players over and getting players in from third with less than two outs you will see a lot of wins.
Richard Jones

Thomas Brennan said...

Fans do have to really consider what we have for pitchers. Koufax had an ERA above 4.00 And was 36-40, until he went electric at age 25. Randy Johnson? He was lousy til age 26, and really kicked it into high gear at 29.

All to say, HARVEY, deGrom, THOR, Matz could all still collectively get much better. Remember that in trade thoughts.

Mack's Mets © 2012