Mack’s Morning Report – 7-11-15 – Q and A


Good morning.

Gary asked -

Hi Mack, I was wondering what your thoughts are currently regarding the following players: Conforto, Nimmo, Smith, Cecchini and Fulmer. I fear with the big club S.A. will screw around long enough that any good player he wants will be gone and as we float around the .500 mark he will try and talk everyone into thinking were a playoff team and lose any chance of us selling off for prospects that will help us in 16'. With Duda looking more and more like the 1st baseman he replaced not long ago what would you do regarding him going forward? Thanks.

Mack – Remember, you asked what I think, which isn’t always consistent over the years. Right now, I do not expect Sandy Alderson to make any major moves this year. He intends to go to his baseball grave with his Fab Four pitchers by his side.
I also don’t expect him to rush any of the few true Mets prospects the team has right now. I think he will continue to juggle the team he has now, awaiting the return of both David Wright and Travis d’Arnaud.

Alderson knows deep down in his heart two things. His team was not dealt the cards this year because injuries to too many key players and the lack of financial support by his boss to replace those players with more or equally talented players. With all due respect, you’re not going to beat Zack Greinke by batting Darrell Ceccilini 6th in the lineup.

Most of the five names you listed still have issues. Nimmo and Fulmer are often injured, Smith doesn’t hit home runs, and Cecchini has trouble in the field. Only Michael Conforto looks to be ready to take over left field next season, a move I do see happening whether the Mets eat Michael Cuddyer’s salary or trade him for a bag o’ balls.

Alderson is sold on Duda at first through all his streaks and will valiantly try and get him to return to the negotiating table at the end of the season to work out an extended contract. The numbers may change actually in the favor of the Mets.

No Gary, Alderson know that 2015 isn’t the ‘Year of the Mets’. He just can’t stand up and admit it.

Beelzebot asked -

Hey Mack, are you going to comment on the lat injury of Matz?  So far, I am not seeing much other than it is a torn lat, they gave him a platelet rich injection, rest 3 weeks.  What I am not seeing concerns me, usually all the talking heads and geeks jump all over Mets injuries, but also included on that is commentary on how serious that injury actually is or comparing it to other people who have had a similar problem.  I will just assume he will be out the rest of the year and that possibly his career is over.

Mack – Hey Beeze.

It’s funny… I was just about to write recently that thank God none of the Stud Four have gone down.

The official word originally was there was nothing to worry about. Now it’s three weeks before he will be allowed to test his arm throwing. My guess is, with his injury history, that he is done for the season.

I believe the entire Mets world, be them fans, beat writers, team officials or Mack’s Mets contributors, and all in shock over this one. There’s nothing more that can be done to this team to shock me.

Strong consideration has to be given to shutting down Matz and Juan Lagares, another one of their few talented ‘walking wounded’. These guys are needed in the future and, as we know, the 2015 version of this team has learned to live without just about everyone.


Hobie said...

"... too many key players and the lack of financial support by his boss to replace those players with more or equally talented players."

That may very well be the case--so many blogs claim to know what (if anything) is in Jeff W. and/or SA's head--but for the life of me.

Just whom could money (only) buy that fit the "more or equally talented" criteria?
Who are the sellers that would accept cash only?

Everybody has their price, I suppose.

Ernest Dove said...

Matz should absolutely be shut down rest of year. Theres enough arms to finish out year and even go with jarvey deGrom Thor for any magical playoff run that would occur.
I believe Lagares is quitely hitting Around .300 in past 7 games, but he should still be shut down too I guess.
It'd be nice if TDA AND BLEVINS ever came back.

TP said...

Morning Mack,
I agree that the Mets will likely(and should) make a minor move and preserve the talent depth. As much as we are all starving for a playoff team, a rental of an Upton-type just won't get them to the level of the Nats, Cards, or Dodgers. Go get a role player that can hit a little, overpay in money instead of talent, and see where it goes.

While Cuddyer has been a huge disappointment, I am not ready to dump him. The bench is brutal, and moving him into a platoon/bench role for the rest of 2015 and 2016 strengthens the team. I actually agree with Alderson that using him less can improve his performance.

The two biggest issues for this team are DW and TDA. These are huge issues both for 2015 and more importantly 2016. DW will be a question mark for the rest of whatever career he has left. That really hamstrings the team, even when you ignore his salary. TDA has really proven that they need to move him from behind the plate if, and that is a big if, they believe in his bat. How they deal with these two issues will define their next 3 years.

Thomas Brennan said...

Lot of year left. What if Matz is 100% by Sept 1? If still in playoff hunt, no need to shut him down. Fortunately for him making major league salary

Mack Ade said...

Hobie -

Money can buy talent that is running out of contract time. May not be perfect but it can solve a short term goal. It's worked for teams in the past.

Mack Ade said...

TP -

I don't think the Mets are in a position currently to 'dump' anyone, no matter how bad they are playing. Even Cuddyer gave a boost last night.

bob gregory said...

Just who are the core position players on the Mets?

Ruben, Granderson, and Cuddyer certainly are not.

Duda, Lagares, and Flores aren't showing they are the constants to be built around.

Wright was the core. Age and injury looks to have made him into hopefully a supporting player.

Murphy? It seems like the team has been trying to move him form the past 2 years.

That leaves D'Arnaud. If his name is not Posey or Piazza can you really have just a catcher be the core of your offense? Even in better health.

The team has to find a core offensively to build around. 3 players that serve as the framework to be built around.
However they are obtained it is necessary and has neglectful never been addressed.

How can this team obtain these core players?
Wait and hope Conforto & Nimmo are 2 ?
Nimmo has not yet given good reason you could feel comfortable betting on him.
Conforto could be one, but how long until his performance at the major league level makes him a main offensive cog? Keep in mind adjustment and growing pains. Best case? 2-3 years?
How many of the stud pitchers at that point are pricing themselves off the Mets due to arbitration?

So is free agency the path to obtaining core offensive players?
Well, that will be expensive. Makes since to spend the money now in this direction while the stud pitchers are cheaper. Gives time for obtaining and developing new offensive replacements in the minors that will be cheap when it is time to pay the pitchers.

3rd option is to obtain other younger position playing core members from other teams.
This path will be costly too. The cost will be in talent though in place of money.
Money wise this would be good in the near future but the $ bomb will await as now pitching and position players will reach arbitration and free agency together.

Piecing together year to year an unbalanced team can not result in sustainable success. Sure there may be a miracle possible of unbelievable success. It is equally likely for unbelievable failure. The succeed will only be fleeting.

ZachBoyer said...

"Mets ERA with Kevin Plawecki catching: 2.60

Mets ERA with Travis d'Arnaud catching: 4.21"

Coincidence? Maybe. Just something to keep in mind.

(Loved the Jordan-shrug from Noah last night.)

greg b said...

Hi guys, like to know your opinion on 2 guys Eudy Pina and Matt Obereste. Both are having solid yrs. Are they future mlb?

Ernest Dove said...

Obereste looked really solid to me. Solid contact guy. But he seems to have a 1B/DH thing about him soooooo.

Thomas Brennan said...

Can't say much about Eudy Pina, who gets no attention - but manages to hit. 303 in AA. Maybe he'll be a dark horse 4th or 5th OF in a year or 2. Other than the average, not a lot stands out.

Mack Ade said...

Greg -

I don't see either one making Queens someday

Mack Ade said...

Fact -

If the Mets beat Arizona today and tie at the end of the season as the second Wild Card team, the Mets will be named the winner

Michael S. said...

Does d'Arnaud have the athleticism to play 3B? I was completely against a position switch but this injuries are keeping one of our best hitters out of the lineup and he's going to keep getting hurt.

His brother's an IF, maybe he has the genes.

Michael S. said...

Nimmo's a top 50 prospect in aloof baseball. I think he's going to become the same I always did - solid but unspectacular defensively, decent batting average and high OBP with moderate power. The power could come as he continues to mature, but for now I'd expect no more than 10--15 HRs. Not sexy, but very productive and an important producer. With his skillset, he should be able to comfortably hit 1st or 2nd. I'm thinking an Alex Gordon type.

Steve from Norfolk said...

Lagares is not doing them a whole lot of good right now. Everyone knows they can run on him, even TC said he has an ailment that needs either rest or TJS.

Quote from MLBTR, 6/18:

Mets manager Terry Collins told reporters on Thursday that Juan Lagares is playing through an elbow ailment that could be fixed by either rest or Tommy John surgery, but the Record’s Matt Ehalt writes that surgery is not on the table for Lagares at this time. Both Collins and GM Sandy Alderson said that the injury is something that Lagares can play through, with Collins adding that “a lot of guys” have previously played through this particular ailment. “We just have to be careful he doesn’t get crazy and make an awkward throw or try to overthrow too much,” said Collins. Alderson added that the injury is “not an issue” and that surgery is “not on our radar.”

If that doesn't sound like a partial TJ tear, I don't know what does. SA is risking Juan's entire career for an illusion. If they had gone for the new surgery being done at Dr. Andrews' clinic in Alabama when he was first injured, he would most likely have been back in time to qualify for post-season play. Let's just hope he can use restraint when throwing, so we don't lose him for a year, especially the the end of the first year we've had a chance for the post-season in a long time.

ZachBoyer said...

Last I checked, Juan had +6 defensive runs saved (that's with the throwing troubles!). So I definitely don't think he deserved the D+ given to him on Reese's midseason report card. He's batting .256. He's not killing you.

At the same time, Idk how they sign him to a new contract in spring training? They knew about his elbow last year.

Idk whether to sit him at this point or not. But if you do, it's a lot more Kirk Nieuwenhuis than I think anyone is comfortable seeing. Good luck staying in it with him as your everyday CF. And just in case you were thinking about playing Granderson in CF, his arm healthy is no better than Juan's hurt.

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