Mack – 2017 Mets Forecast

Good morning.

A bunch of us Mack’s Mets writers are putting together their thoughts and forecasting what and where the Mets will be this 2017 season. I always love doing this and I always seem to have one general theme… gloom and doom.

I’ve learned my lesson over time to not get too excited in February. No one has torn a muscle yet, or popped a shoulder, or even skinned a knee. The pitchers are especially going to start off slowly and some every day players, like David Wright, may not play quality innings until mid-April. Spring training is always a good time for management to get a look at some of the kids that have moved up the pipeline. 

We all think Terry Collins and Sandy Alderson have watched all these players throughout their Mets career, but it simply isn’t true. I covered the Savannah Sand Gnats from 2007- 2012 and I never saw one Mets General Manager make a trip to the Coastal Empire.

No, this is the time of the year when I am the most conservative, and yet, all around me people have this team going all the way this year. This includes other bloggers, Mets beat reporters, and national writers that cover all of baseball. I wish I could join all of you that believe that 2017 is the ‘Year Of The Met’. I don’t share in that opinion. What I see is a transitional year that will begin once the dreaded old-bones injuries start, mostly with the usual suspects we have got used to when I post ‘medical updates’ on the site.

So, this begins my forecast. A lot of disappointment, a fair amount of good news, and a difficult time to get to the playoffs.

Rather than going position to position, let me give you my good news first.

1.     I see P Noah Syndergaard becoming the starter in the All-Star game, establishing himself solidly as a Cy Young candidate, and possibly pitching so well that he prices himself out of working out an extension before his arbitration years set in. I am sure Sandy and Company will do everything they can to put together a deal for Thor well past his scheduled first free agency year of 2022.  This is a very special pitcher in the Tom Seaver mold and you need to glue yourself in front of the television every time he pitches.

2.     I’m not a big fan of offering a contract extension to anyone until they are about the enter their first arbitration year. Only Syndergaard and P Hansel Robles qualify for this at the end of this season and Robles first free agency year is 2021, one year before Syndergaard. I see Robles establishing himself in the 2017 bullpen which may feature many critical injuries. He’s always had the talent and velocity… all he needs to do is find the plate.

3.     I see P Robert Gsellman establishing himself as the ‘new deGrom’ of this team. He simply is going to have to pick up the rock again and fill in for multiple pitchers that will either be placed on the disabled list, or traded off at the All-Star break. I look for a Gsell-big year here.

4.     I see  SS Amed Rosario, 2B Gavin Cecchini and 1B Dominic Smith batting their way out of Las Vegas by the All-Star break. In addition, I believe that OF Michael Conforto will prove he should be playing every day and all four of these guys will begin a brand new era for the Mets bats.

        Frankly, past this, I don’t see too many stars in the sky. Oh sure, there will be Harvey and deGrom victories, but I don’t see either one of them having great years for different reasons. And Wheeler? Well, I believe the dream that he would become a factor in major league baseball just may be over. I expect him to really struggle and end the year pitching in Las Vegas. 
   
        Batting wise, at various times of the season, we will see the end of David Wright and Jay Bruce. Wright will do everything he can to keep in this game but it just isn’t going to happen. The Mets will finally find a home for Bruce, which will allow for Conforto to become a full time player next to Yoenes Cespedes.  

         As  for Lagares, Cabrera, Walker, Reyes, Rivera, d’Arnaud, and Granderson, they will simply under-preform throughout the season. None of these guys are any longer stars of this game. They just aren’t. 

        You’ve already read my win-loss and division standing prediction. I can’t see the Mets winning more games than the Braves and definitely not more than the Nationals. Coming in third in the division will do nothing for their chances to make the playoffs. 

         What I do see is the beginning of a new era of young, talented everyday players that will be around for many years to come, complimented by a very solid rotation of Syndergaard, deGrom, Matz, Gsellman, and Lugo. 

      
         Waiting in the wings… a trade of Matt Harvey for a new third baseman.
.