3/1/17

Mack – 2017 Mets Forecast

13 comments


Good morning.


A bunch of us Mack’s Mets writers are putting together their thoughts and forecasting what and where the Mets will be this 2017 season. I always love doing this and I always seem to have one general theme… gloom and doom.

I’ve learned my lesson over time to not get too excited in February. No one has torn a muscle yet, or popped a shoulder, or even skinned a knee. The pitchers are especially going to start off slowly and some every day players, like David Wright, may not play quality innings until mid-April. Spring training is always a good time for management to get a look at some of the kids that have moved up the pipeline. 

We all think Terry Collins and Sandy Alderson have watched all these players throughout their Mets career, but it simply isn’t true. I covered the Savannah Sand Gnats from 2007- 2012 and I never saw one Mets General Manager make a trip to the Coastal Empire.

No, this is the time of the year when I am the most conservative, and yet, all around me people have this team going all the way this year. This includes other bloggers, Mets beat reporters, and national writers that cover all of baseball. I wish I could join all of you that believe that 2017 is the ‘Year Of The Met’. I don’t share in that opinion. What I see is a transitional year that will begin once the dreaded old-bones injuries start, mostly with the usual suspects we have got used to when I post ‘medical updates’ on the site.

So, this begins my forecast. A lot of disappointment, a fair amount of good news, and a difficult time to get to the playoffs.

Rather than going position to position, let me give you my good news first.

1.     I see P Noah Syndergaard becoming the starter in the All-Star game, establishing himself solidly as a Cy Young candidate, and possibly pitching so well that he prices himself out of working out an extension before his arbitration years set in. I am sure Sandy and Company will do everything they can to put together a deal for Thor well past his scheduled first free agency year of 2022.  This is a very special pitcher in the Tom Seaver mold and you need to glue yourself in front of the television every time he pitches.

2.     I’m not a big fan of offering a contract extension to anyone until they are about the enter their first arbitration year. Only Syndergaard and P Hansel Robles qualify for this at the end of this season and Robles first free agency year is 2021, one year before Syndergaard. I see Robles establishing himself in the 2017 bullpen which may feature many critical injuries. He’s always had the talent and velocity… all he needs to do is find the plate.

3.     I see P Robert Gsellman establishing himself as the ‘new deGrom’ of this team. He simply is going to have to pick up the rock again and fill in for multiple pitchers that will either be placed on the disabled list, or traded off at the All-Star break. I look for a Gsell-big year here.

4.     I see  SS Amed Rosario, 2B Gavin Cecchini and 1B Dominic Smith batting their way out of Las Vegas by the All-Star break. In addition, I believe that OF Michael Conforto will prove he should be playing every day and all four of these guys will begin a brand new era for the Mets bats.

        Frankly, past this, I don’t see too many stars in the sky. Oh sure, there will be Harvey and deGrom victories, but I don’t see either one of them having great years for different reasons. And Wheeler? Well, I believe the dream that he would become a factor in major league baseball just may be over. I expect him to really struggle and end the year pitching in Las Vegas. 
   
        Batting wise, at various times of the season, we will see the end of David Wright and Jay Bruce. Wright will do everything he can to keep in this game but it just isn’t going to happen. The Mets will finally find a home for Bruce, which will allow for Conforto to become a full time player next to Yoenes Cespedes.  

         As  for Lagares, Cabrera, Walker, Reyes, Rivera, d’Arnaud, and Granderson, they will simply under-preform throughout the season. None of these guys are any longer stars of this game. They just aren’t. 

        You’ve already read my win-loss and division standing prediction. I can’t see the Mets winning more games than the Braves and definitely not more than the Nationals. Coming in third in the division will do nothing for their chances to make the playoffs. 

         What I do see is the beginning of a new era of young, talented everyday players that will be around for many years to come, complimented by a very solid rotation of Syndergaard, deGrom, Matz, Gsellman, and Lugo. 
      
         Waiting in the wings… a trade of Matt Harvey for a new third baseman.
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13 comments:

Thomas Brennan said...

"That's why they play the games."

So many possibilities, so many guys that can under-perform or out-perform, so hard to predict this early. One good thing, as opposed to earlier years, is we won't have to turn to an Eric Campbell, Logan Verrett, or (yes) Danny Muno when the first regular guys get hurt.

This team has real depth in offensive talent, more than I can ever recall a Mets team having. Usually, the drop off when a guy needs to step in for a hurt player is severe. This year, it could be a step up instead.

Mack Ade said...

Tom -

I do not expect many that come to read here to be happy with my forcast and the first person that hopes I'm wrong is me, but look what is going on already. The same people (Wheeler, Duda, Wright) who have been sidelined in the past are breaking down again.

IMO... the Mets will NEVER go all the way unless they build a team like the Cubs... young, talented, and healthy

Eddie Corona said...

wow... great article because there is a lot to discuss...

1.You said SS Rosario, 2B Cecchini and 1B Smith battle their way out of Vegas which means you expect them to earn their place on the big club... That would be Huge...
the versatility of what you could do with a walker, cabrera, reyes and duda off the bench or in a trade..

Honestly I am hoping Rosario kicks the door down and takes hold of the SS soon after the super 2 deadline... He improved the Defense with cabrera taking over 3b/1b...

2. You didn't expect a big year from Degrom... Wow i haven't seen anyone predict this...
3. You expect Cecchini at 2b when you stated he isn't a 2b prospect yet...

If Noah is a cy young candidate then I expect the met's to win at least 20-25 of the games he starts... that a great base for a team from one pitcher... 70-75 more wins from the rest of the pitching staff...

Eddie Corona said...

also the one thing about Wheeler, Duda, Wright...none have to step foot on the field this year to hurt our chances on making the post season... some would argue their inclusion actually hurts our chances ...

Robb said...

Unless youre trading harvey to the red soxs i cant even find a 3rd base prospect that a team has that is close to competing is worth trading him for. But i can find a 1 year cabrera option that gets you to the free agency year of manny muchado.

I think by the end of the year cecchini will be a 2nd base prospect. I just cant see the mets having a starting infield in 2018 of smith, ceccini, rosario and cabrera/wright. but i do think smith and rosario might be there at the start of that season.

I think degrom will be fine this year. The thing about Noah is that an extension might be worth it giving up the year theyd buy out t a reduced cost bc the marketing money he would make by being the one they signed would be huge. also looks like he really likes nyc which is important. harvey always had that i want to be the highest paid as most important. who knows.

Mack Ade said...

Eddie -

1. I see 1B Smith, SS Rosario, 2B Cecchini, and LF Conforto becoming 'The New Kids On The El'... they are the future of this team and the only thing in teir way is the manager. I don't ever spend any time worrying about who they replace and what to do with them. Trade them, or sit them on the bench until their contracts run out. I don't care.

Mack Ade said...

Eddie -

2. I didn't elaborate on deGrom because I don't think he's going to heal wall... again. He has had a history of throwing problems throughout his college and pro career

Mack Ade said...

Eddie -

I don't think I said that. I think I said he wasn't a third base prospect.

Mack Ade said...

Robb -

As I said about Harvey, it is 'next up'.

No one will want him unless he pitches both healthy and successfully.

Reese Kaplan said...

There won't be a Harvey trade until/unless there's an official Wright retirement. They will keep treading the status quo with backups until then.

However, if he's really done then would you do an even up Harvey for Evan Longoria? The obligation is through 2022 with a $5 million buyout for 2023. I think the Mets would be gunshy after seeing what happened with Wright. The AAV of about $16 million is reasonable but he's already 30.

The next logical target would be FA to be Todd Frazier who is a local boy from NJ.

Eddie Corona said...

Reese No to Frazier... he would turn out to be just like Headley was...
But even up Harvey for Evan Longoria would have to be done... 100 PCT...
Then we would be Division Favorites...

Robb said...

mack,

i assumed the harvey trade would be after the 2017 season after he had proved he was healthy again.

Mack Ade said...

Robb -

definitely

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