8/12/17

Tom Brennan - METS MINORS BULLPEN RANKING

10 comments

Mets minor league relievers likely have not felt too great about all the newly acquired relievers in the Mets' recent "salary dump" trades. 

First, because the more competition there is, the harder to eventually secure a Mets bullpen slot. 

Second, "What are we...chopped liver?" is likely how the existing pen guys must feel with acquired pen pals coming in like a wave of refugees.

So with the bullpen decks reshuffled, why not give my stab at ranking the Top 10 current and new relievers as I see it? 

My only rules today are as follows:

1) No pitchers drafted this year and in rookie ball - they won't be called up for at least a few years anyway, so check back with me next year on them.

2) Current minors starters who might later turn major league relievers, like Familia and Robles have done, are considered starters by me until the exalted brain trust decides otherwise.

There are many bullpen arms for the 4 full season league teams in the Mets minors.  My TOP 1O (new guys RED):

DREW SMITH - the recently acquired 23 year old hard throwing righty is in AA.   Pitching for 5 teams already this year, he is 3-3, 1.46 in 49 innings, and 7-5, 1.74 in his career.  That performance and a low 2017 walk rate (11) and homer rate (1), loved by Mets management, may lead to a September call up.  Already 2-1 in 4 games with Binghamton (the loss on an unearned run) shows he is very decisive, too.
JAMIE CALLAHAN - 22 year old recently acquired fireballer was assigned to Vegas, a very good sign that he is that young and already in AAA.  He is 5.2, 3.27 with 58 Ks in 44 IP this season.  A very nice 6 of 7 in saves.  Could be a September call up.
STEVE NOGOSEK - a recent trade dude, he is 22 and having a fine year in A ball - 5-4, 19 of 23 in saves, 3.10 ERA, 68 Ks in 58 IP.  See you next September?
TYLER BASHLOR - after returning from Tommy John to have a nice relief season in 2016, he has fanned 71 in 41 innings this year (15.6 / 9).  The fireballer has been great since late June.  Coming fast, a likely mid-2018 bullpen arm for the Mets if/as needed.
ADONIS UCETA - 4-0, 1.13, 13 of 13 in saves, 0.86 WHIP, 11 K /9, he is now closing for St Lucie. Uceta has had a remarkable season and even more remarkable 3 month run: he has not allowed an earned run since May 7!!  Sky's the limit for Adonis.
MATT BLACKHAM - the smallish hard thrower with the Clockwork Orange look in his MILB picture has recovered from Tommy John and done a great relief job for Columbia this year, with 71 Ks in 48 IP and an ERA well under 2.00.  Recently closing well, and his control has improved.
GERSON BAUTISTA - the 100 MPH recent acquisition, who turns 23 next Memorial Day, struggled with his control this year, with a 1.81 WHIP in A ball before Mets got him.  Most encouraging, however, is his pitching of late:  last 7 games, 10.1 IP, 16 K, just 2 BB, 9 H.  Pitching very well for St Lucie so far.  My guess is we will see him as a live bullpen arm for the Mets in 2019.
KYLE REGNAULT - he is a perfect 5-0 this season, 2.70 ERA.  Most of his season in dreaded Vegas, too.  While he turns 29 in December, he is 104, 2.50 career starting in 2015 spanning 98 games and 137 IP.  Could be a September call up or 2018 long man in the Mets pen.  LEFTY!!
AUSTIN MCGEORGE - 22 year old (7th round 2016) has excelled in Columbia and St Lucie, and been outstanding all year: 39 IP, 1.60, 0.89 WHIP, 52 Ks.  On his way up, up, up.
TIM PETERSON - yeah, he got shellacked in a brief time in Vegas (2.2 IP, 5 runs), but what else is new?  Vegas is the world's toughest place to pitch, other than the tip of Mt. Everest.  In normal AA this year, he is 4-3, 35 games, 1.30 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 45 Ks in 48 IP, 7 saves.  Danged good.  He was also danged good in 2015 and 2016.  The righty will turn 27 at the start of spring training next season.  As you can see from the Top 10 list, he's got lots of competition.

Guys in the "NEXT TEN" (11-20) in no particular order:

Kevin McGowan - he switched to relief pitching very effectively in A and AA in 2016.  In 2017, in Vegas, he's been good: 5-4, 4.13, 53 K in 61 IP, 1.38 WHIP.  3 of 7 in save opps this year.  A 6'5", 235 righty 13th rounder in 2013.
Adam Atkins - the 2016 18th rounder struggled in a cameo in St Lucie , but he has been awesome for Columbia: 3-0, 0.89 in 30 IP.  Appears to have a bright future.
Albert Baldonado has slammed into the Vegas pitching wall and so his ascent has stalled.  36 AAA innings, 0-3, 0 for 2 in saves, 7.18 ERA.  He is just one of lefties in this compilation.
Ben Griset is very good for the 2nd straight year, this year in AA.  Two year ERA of 2.00, WHIP of 1.05.  Repeat after me: LEFTY LEFTY LEFTY (NOT) WIMPY WIMPY WIMPY
Ben Rowan - turns 29 later this year, he sputtered in Vegas but has been much better in July and August.  He may be running into a #s game in terms of making the Mets, though.
Corey Taylor - after a great 2015 and 2016, the weighty righty has struggled in AA this season, with a 1.38 WHIP and 38 Ks in 51 IP.  2015 seventh rounder turns 25 this winter.
Ryder Ryan, acquired in the Jay Bruce deal, has pitched poorly of late in A ball, so he is barely in my top 20.  Hard thrower who could move up fast if he figures it all out.
Joe Zanghi - 22 year old who started his career in 2016, he has had 2 very good years: 1-2, 2.06, 78 IP, 101 K, 12 of 14 saves.  One to watch going forward.  But imagine you having those sorts of numbers in your first 2 seasons and then looking up & saying "HOW MANY guys are ahead of me???"
Max Kuhns was going great guns for Columbia this year until the surgeon worked on his pitching elbow.  Hopefully good as new in 2018.
Logan Taylor - in AAA, he was doing well enough and he was looking like a lead pipe cinch until actually he got attacked with a pipe...as if the climb isn't hard enough. Ouch!  He has pitched reasonably well for Vegas and could show up in 2018 at some point if he further improves.

Lots of bullpen talent in just the top 4 Mets minors teams, likely the deepest Met minors pen pool ever.  

And that, friends, ain't no bull (snort, snort). 



10 comments:

Ernest Dove said...

Im a big Tyler Bashlor fan.
97-98 mph lots of strikes.
I feel like maybe the only thing thats held him back is offspeed pitch command.

I saw McGowan for the first time LIVE a couple weeks ago in Vegas. I thought he threw harder (he topped 92 when I saw em).

Mack Ade said...

I have never been able to predict relievers.

I still like excess starters in this role.

Thomas Brennan said...

Hi Ernest - we are both in the Ty Bashlor Fan Club - while we have imported a bunch of arms lately, what is NOT to like about Bashlor? He gets promoted to AA and just rolls - last 5 outings 7.1 IP, 3 hits, 2 walks, 12 Ks, no runs. I think he is accelerating right before our eyes. Queens possibly out of spring training next year - heck, if it works with the 40 man, try him in Sept.

Mack, imagine pitching as well as most of these guys and knowing that not only are they competing for Queens pen spots with the 19 other guys in my Top 20, but also with starting minor league pitchers like Marcos Molina? I'd be depressed.

Ernest Dove said...

I actually have legit "inside info" on that new kid Gerson Bautista. Issue is his fastball doesn't move enough. And obviously the command issues overall.
But Mets have many solid pitching coaches so he could interesting.

Hobie said...

I kinda believe that at least one of these three guys below who have bombed in Vegas after a successful Bingo gig have not just hit their Peter-Principle ceiling. The air, heat, showgirls, Elvis impersonators... who knows.

Look at these stat differentials AA/AAA
BIN/LV-- Rosebloom---Baldionado---Peterson
IP-------57.2/17.1-------16.4/37.1------48.1/2.2
ERA-----1.87/8.31------0.00/7.63-----1.30/16.88
WHIP---0.90/1.79------0.76/1.71------0.79/2.63
BB-K---54-18/12-10---25-5/33-22----45-8/2-2

Thomas Brennan said...

Hobie, Vegas is like waterboarding for pitchers.

Ernest, if he goes from straight to movement on his fastball, Gerson's career movement will be straight up.

Unknown said...

I pull for Kelly Secrest. UNC-W lefty has been showing promise.

Thomas Brennan said...

Adonis Uceta is destroying the Florida State League since his recent promo (6.2 IP, 2 hits, 1 BB, 11K). He seems unhittable and unstoppable.

Move him up to AA in time for their playoffs.

Thomas Brennan said...

"Unknown", Kelly Secrest is a good reliever - his WHIP this year is high, is the main reason I left him off the Top 20 - he sure is up against a lot of competition in that Top 20, though. He will undoubtedly go thru the fires of Vegas next season.

Thomas Brennan said...

"Unknown", to add to my prior comment, Secrest does in fact have a strategic advantage - he has few lefty Mets Minors bullpen competitors, and in fact seems solidly effective (or even better than effective ) against lefty hitters. Perhaps he may be future LOOGY.

Mack's Mets © 2012