Mike Friere - Is There Trouble On The Horizon?

The title of this article certainly sounds ominous, right?  Sort of like the early scenes from Independence Day when alien spaceships started showing up outside of the major cities across the country.  I am not trying to sound like "Chicken Little" and the sky is most certainly NOT falling.  However, after removing the "rose colored glasses" and coming down off of the high of the Mets fantastic start to the year, I do think there may be some turbulence ahead for our favorite team.

The Mets are currently 17-9 as of this writing, winning two out of three games against a mediocre Padres club in San Diego over the weekend.  The listed record is good enough for first place and they have a one and one half game lead over  the Phillies and Braves within the NL East. I think it is a bit early to worry so much about standings and leads when we have only played 16% of the schedule, but a good start is better then a poor one.

The 17-9 start equates to a winning percentage of .653 and if the Mets were to keep that pace going across the entire season, they would finish with a record of 106-56.  That would only be two games off the pace the legendary '86 Mets put forth, so it is unrealistic to expect that level of success to continue with this year's team.

If you look at the Mets' last ten games, the team is playing .500 baseball (5-5), so the "slow down" or the regression to the mean has already begun.  Furthermore, they have a positive run differential of only fourteen runs, which is low for a winning percentage that high.  Using the proper metric, that run differential should equate to a winning percentage of .567 or at least a couple of wins below the current pace.  In short, they have overachieved a bit early in the season.  

Before we totally geek out on stats, just know that even the lower winning percentage listed above would still generate a final record of 92-70 which would be good enough for a playoff berth in most seasons, so all is not lost if that were to occur.

The "trouble" that I alluded to in the beginning isn't so much about the statistics as it is the state of the starting rotation. Instead of the "Super Rotation" that we were all hoping for, we have ended up with a "Dynamic Duo" in Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard, followed by a collection of pitchers who are doing their best "Jekyll and Hyde" impersonation.......sometimes from one inning to the next within the same

start.

Consider the following;

1. Steven Matz has been horrible so far and now he is potentially injured again.

2. Matt Harvey is a shell of his former self and is now in the bullpen, trying to figure things out, when he is not sparring with the media of course.

3.  Zack Wheeler is still erratic at best and cannot be counted on to contribute more then four or five shaky innings per start, unless the Marlins are the opponent which is really weird.

4.  Jason Vargas has been out of action due to a freak injury until this past weekend, when is first start with the Mets didn't go as planned, which is putting his Hindenburg style performance nicely.

The question becomes, can the Mets continue to play successful baseball if your team is at a disadvantage on the mound 60% of the time? 

Of the current options listed above, the Mets will be hard pressed to make any major changes short of the pitchers themselves improving as the season moves along.   I think Jason Vargas will be OK as he shakes off the rust, but can we trust Zack Wheeler and/or Steven Matz to suddenly become more accurate with their pitches when history says otherwise?

If Matt Harvey takes to his new role in the bullpen, then MAYBE you can move either Seth Lugo or Robert Gsellman back into the rotation in place of an incumbent starter (likely Steven Matz once he goes on the DL, which you know is the next step in this story). 

Short of a trade or two, are there any pitchers in AAA or even AA that can make the leap to the parent club and provide a reliable arm in the rotation?  Can any of the youngsters pitch better then what we have been getting?

Despite obvious issues behind the plate, shoring up the starting rotation is the biggest objective for Sandy and company going forward.  If things remain status quo, I think the last ten days are much more representative of the teams' chances for the rest of the year as opposed to the blazing start that suddenly feels much less convincing.