5/3/18

Tom Brennan - OUR PROSPECTS, AND THEIR PROSPECTS

12 comments

Tom Brennan - OUR PROSPECTS, AND THEIR PROSPECTS


Ew! What's that diaper smell?  Well, the prospects are stinky.

Why are our hitting prospects almost never like the other guys' prospects?

All along I had heard Amed Rosario was the best thing since sliced bread - you know the organic kind, multi-grain, toasted, fresh butter - yeah.  We were salivating over our prospect like I was salivating over that toast.

OK, I am just back from the kitchen - let me continue.

Amed Rosario did start playing in the minors as an international signing dude really young, so although he got called up by the Mets last year at the age of 21, he already had 1,926 plate appearances. 

A hot shot prospect (i.e., Jonathan Mayo had him as his # 5 prospect in all of baseball prior to the start of 2017) should be ready to blaze into major league stardom with playing that much, right? 

After all, Bryce Harper only had 569 minor league plate appearances. He adjusted nicely.

Amed should be really ready if he had 1,357 more, right?

Wrong. 

So far, Amed has (typically Met) not been all that good - Mets' prospects almost always have to go through painful, long adjustments with their hitting prospect call ups, so why should it surprise that Rosario in his MLB career spanning 249 official at bats and a few other plate appearances is a substandard .241/.270/.365? 

Seven walks, 74 Ks in 71 games?  A pitcher with a 10.6 K/BB ratio you'd love.  A hitter with that ratio?  Come on. 

Despite blazing speed, just 7 steals in 12 tries?  18 career RBIs and 27 runs scored? 

Kind of reads like, I don't know, Reese Kaplan, like what??? 

Oh it is coming to me now, a RUBEN TEJADA stat line, whaddya think?  A stat line only a Mets fan could love.  Except Ruben's on base % was better.

Then there's Dominic Smith - best natural hitter in the 2013 draft, they said, and we got him! (Roll out that toast imagery again, will you?) 

The Mets of course passed on the best supernatural hitter in the draft (Aaron Judge) to take Smith. 

John Sterling no doubt said, "Holy Moses!  The Yanks picked Aaron.  Yankees...WIN!"

And the rest is history.

Unlike Bryce Harper's meteoric rise from the minors, Smith steadily and un-meteorically plodded upwards in 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017 - 4.5 seasons - be satisfied and excited with modest progress, you greedy fans!

Then, Smith showed up a few weeks after Rosario did for his major league interview, wearing a fat suit, and hit  a buck 98. 

Don't call us, we'll call you, big fella.

Skip all the details since then for the slimmed down Smith, other than to say that in hitters' paradise Las Vegas, Smith is currently hitting .270 with a .393 slug %.  (That slugging % is low due to just 5 doubles and 2 homers!!!  Not Freddie Frickin' Freeman stuff).

My rough rule of thumb is knock a hundred points off of PCL Vegas batting and slugging stats to make them major-league-comparable and, doing so, it is as if Smith is hitting the major league equivalent right now of .170/.293.  Yep, one of our best and brightest.  And...


Yep, that makes him one of: OUR PROSPECTS.

And between last year's prospects everyone was dying to see (Smith and Rosario) in the majors, the sample size is no longer small.  447 major league plate appearances between them, a low .224, just 21 walks, 123 strikeouts. Mets quality. 

With Mets hitting prospects' performance like that, why ever get excited over another Mets hitting prospect again, one might ask.  I certainly am.


ON TO "THEIR PROSPECTS:"

Atlanta - Acuna and Albies: the two super-young Braves super starting position players combined have done this in the majors in 2018: .326 in 135 at bats, 17 doubles, 10 HRs, and 24 RBIs.  No one is confusing that with Ruben Tejada - or Amed Rosario.

Yankees - besides Judge, let's focus on the new kids - Andujar and Torres - 121 at bats, .291, 15 doubles, a triple, 3 HRs, and 14 RBIs.  Rosario again suffers by comparison.

Phillies - Rhys Hoskins: MLB career stats - in slightly more at bats than Rosario, 263 at bats, he has 16 doubles, 22 homers, and 68 RBIs (.274/.417/.586).  Not suffering an Amed-like (or Smith-like, or for that matter, Conforto-like) soph jinx, Hoskins is hitting .301 in 2018, with a Harper-or-Judge-like .455 OBP.

Someone could say, "Tom, why are you cherry-picking, you left someone out, what about Brandon Nimmo?" 

The former high first rounder in 2012 has happily done surprisingly well, but unfortunately he is a 4th/5th outfielder on this Mets team - if he played everyday, he might be able to show if his early very solid career results understate, or overstate, his potential. 

And if he had earned a "can't miss" label by the end of 2017, the Mets never would have re-signed Jay Bruce and instead targeted Brandon to start.  So our hope is he is blossoming into an outstanding late bloomer, which sometimes happens.

But I do highly commend him on his .269/.382/.410 career Mets stats in about 340 MLB plate appearances.  Seems there is a lot to love about Brandon Nimmo.

I also, to swing the pendulum back from successful Brandon, left out Kevin Plawecki (555 MLB PA's, .219/.309/.305) and Tommy Nido (just 39 PAs, but .216/.256/.270, and that's after over 1,500 minor league plate appearances with a weak .261/.305/.372, light years from someone like a different organization's graduated prospect, Gary Sanchez).

All I can say is:

I sure hope that Peter Alonso (currently dismantling, decimating, and destroying AA pitching) will soon be our Harper, Judge, Torres, Andujar, Albies, Acuna, or Hoskins. 

Because we never seem to get the caliber of Other Teams' Hitting Prospects like those fine fellas from other franchises.

We mostly just get Mets Prospects

Like Ruben, like, Smitty, like Amed. 







12 comments:

Mack Ade said...

Every time the MLB puts out their Top 100 prospect list, we have 2 or 3 players on it.

Even when Rosario and Smith were high up, who else was in that 100? Cecchini?

I really am down on the results of our prospects. Smith is puttering out in Vegas, Guillorme has somehow forgot how to hit in a hitters league, we dan't have a starter down there that can't have three decent outings in a row, and I'm even starting the question the long range for Conforto.

Thomas Brennan said...

Yes sir.

And remember when we "talked" about trying to trade for Mookie Betts while he was still a prospect? Harvey would have got it done. What better than to have another Mookie?

Last year, 102 RBIs. This year, 11 homers already and .365/.451/.823 - just like Michael Conforto.

Thomas Brennan said...

Our stud - Thor - cannot finish 8 innings.

Theirs - Luis Severino - throws a complete game shutout against the Defending Champs.

Eddie Corona said...

I read all the Hype of Rosario However when i saw him i said this kid is suppose be a top 5 in Baseball talent?

I am not scout but what do people see... More important fire all of our scouts because they should be scouting our players as well as others... I mean go hire the Guy who runs the Red Sox, or Cardinals scouting team...

Rosario should have been traded before the shine rubbed off...

Eddie Corona said...

I am also one for bringing up Talent earlier than expected.. Why waste Pitchers in the Minors if they are going to get hurt and use up their service time on the DL...

If a kid has promise throw him to the wolves... this isnt a contact sport, if they get ruined because they were up before they were ready they really would never have made it at all...
Just my opinion

Mack Ade said...

Eddie -

Two of our 'seasoned' starters... Lugo and Gsellman... are now in the pen because we can't seem to develop/trade for/sign 8 decent guys to play there.

Thomas Brennan said...

We had to go out and sign Cespedes, Bruce, Cabrera, Gonzalez, Frazier, Swarzak (who?), and Vargas due to inability to develop talent in-house.

Imagine this franchise if it were in a small market, with small market revenues, and could not afford to sign so many guys? We'd all be doing something else.

Here is an interesting thing I noticed - Hunter Pence is now 35 and started out slowly - and is now in AAA - but Jose Reyes is still here despite virtually identical circumstances. Why? Because there is so little confidence in Rosario?

Thomas Brennan said...

Jake apparently had a clean MRI - apparently the hyperextension was on a swing? I want the DH.

Anonymous said...

You guys are the most soured fans ever. This is the team we have, it is to early to try to forecast trades etc... GROWING pains to hitting to fielding , let them play and see were we are in July.Breath the fresh air go outside and catch some rays ,enjoy the games.

Anonymous said...

Eddie Corona hit it on the nose: this organization's concept of timeliness takes a backseat,head-craning, pillow-under-butt position to their driving fear of not seeming estute. They simply never make a crisp, organic move! They invest in touting some prospects while letting others languish, let a third set ferment, and trade away only the soon-to-blossom. Flores has no chance with the Mets. They truly never liked Murph or Turner. Nor shall Nimmo prosper here. And let's send all our prospects to prolonged desert stays of baseball abberation to clarify the anaylitics. They seem to want to emulate other clear-thinking organizations, not actually be one-because driving hard to win the race, thriving in the now involves risk!

Hobie said...

Tired of the Judge 20/20 hindsight. If you were screaming "Judge! Judge!" at the time, you have the right to crow, I don't remember that. I was hoping Austin Meadows would fall (he didn't) and was happy with Smith.

The Yankees picked Eric Jagielo over Judge (now in AA with the Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp) over Judge and got a second shot 5 picks later (along with 20 other non-Judge picks after Dominic. I'm sure they had it all planned out.

Anonymous said...

????? TO CLARIFY: Every baseball fan knows the Wilpons function based on real estate profits and seeking face-valid September relevance to mollify their fans. They are not hellbent to win or make aggressive internal or external moves. That was the crux, which your hobbly argument failed to address.

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