Mike Freire - Where Is Dominic Smith?

PC - Reese Kaplan

There has been some chatter of late concerning the current status of former first base prospect Dominic Smith and most of it has been negative, which shouldn't be a surprise with the way this season has turned out.  Heck, there is a rumor that they are going to change the name of the well known child's game "Where Is Waldo" to "Where is Dominic" (I kid, I kid).

Joking aside, it has been quite a "fall from grace" for DS when you consider where he started and where he is now.

In case you don't remember, DS was drafted by the Mets with the 11th overall pick in the 2013 MLB draft as a coveted 18 year old first base prospect out of Los Angeles, CA.  He was viewed by some as an above average defensive player that was also projected to be proficient with the bat, which is a nice combination to have on your team (like a Keith Hernandez clone).  It is safe to say that things haven't quite worked out as planned, so far. 

It should be said that there are quite a few players that were picked in this draft that have not made it to the majors as of this email, so the lack of instant success should not be seen as an indictment, per se.  However, this was also the same draft that produced the following successful major league players (all of them were picked after the Mets' selection);

SS - Tim Anderson
OF - Aaron Judge (sorry, Tom)
P - Sean Manaea
P - Corey Knebel

Steering the conversation back to DS, he started his Mets' career right after the draft with the Gulf Coast Mets which was appropriate for his age and experience (High School).  He subsequently rose through the minor league system and eventually made his Mets' debut during the 2017 season as a 22 year old, so his development was slow and steady for lack of a better phrase.

In six minor league seasons (to include time at AAA during the 2018 season), he has compiled 2,511 plate appearances, which works out to roughly four full seasons of production if we use 600 plate appearances as a "full season".  While doing so, his minor league statistics look like this;

.298/.364/.427  (.791 OPS)

10.5 HR/85.25 RBI/3 SB and 78.00 R

The listed numbers don't scream MONSTER PROSPECT, but they are fairly solid and quite reminiscent of his aforementioned comparison player.  Since that time period, DS had a 183 plate appearance "cup of coffee" in 2017, followed by 74 plate appearances this year (mixed in with time at AAA).  Cover your eyes.......here are his major league statistics, to date;

257 plate appearances (43% of one season, or a very small sample size)

.193/.249/.374  (.623 OPS)

10 HR/27 RBI/0 SB and 23 R

-2.3 WAR (yes, that is a negative value)

So, what the heck happened and where is the real Dominic Smith?  I know that the major leagues are more difficult then the minor leagues, but that is quite a drop in production!  His statistics are so bad (like something you would scrape off your shoe), that his contributions have actually COST the Mets over two wins when compared to a replacement level player.

You can argue "small sample size" or that he hasn't been given a legitimate shot at regular playing time and you would have a point.  But, you HAVE to be a bit concerned about his production, or lack thereof.   Even his defense has slipped from what was advertised, to the point that the team has tried to teach him to play in the outfield when there is a glaring need for a first baseman on the roster. This isn't even touching on his rumored "refusal to work hard" (i.e. get in shape) along with the potential "attitude" problems that he has displayed that have effectively landed him in Mickey's dog house.

As I stated in the comments section of a different article yesterday, DS reminds me of a few kids that I grew up with that were extremely talented at various sports and/or academics.  As such, they didn't have to try very hard to be successful and they usually did just enough to get by while relying on their exceptional abilities.  However, as they aged, the requirements and the competition got tougher and they began to struggle.  Unfortunately, they lacked the ability to work hard and improve since they never had to do so and they ultimately failed to meet expectations.

While it is too early to definitively label DS a "bust", do you think he will end up like the folks in the previous paragraph?