With the Mets headed out to the city by the bay (where Pete
Alonso’s moonshot to left in Minnesota may soon splash down), there is a
growing, dare I say, optimism among Mets fans.
Having won 4 out of the past 5 games the team is finally seemingly clicking
on all cylinders. Amed Rosario is fresh
off a 4-hit game, the bullpen has been nearly flawless and some clutch hitting
from Dom Smith and others have some folks whispering the “Wildcard” word. Some are even suggesting that rather than
becoming sellers, the club should instead be buyers to pull off a 2015
miracle.
I hate to burst your bubble, but it’s the law of
averages. They were not as bad as they
looked most of May and June, nor are they as good as they looked in early April
and mid-May. Just as batters and
pitchers go through hot streaks (Robinson Cano for a week, Jason Vargas for a
prolonged stretch), the same folks drop back to earth eventually.
Are there good things going on in Metsville? Sure, of course there are some
positives. Pete Alonso and Jeff McNeil
are certainly two of them. Jacob deGrom
is pitching like an ace. Noah
Syndergaard is showing flashes of brilliance.
J.D. Davis was a great Wilmer Flores replacement at a bargain basement
price. Seth Lugo has been excellent most
of the time. The recent bullpen
reinforcements of Luis Avilan, Jeurys Familia and Justin Wilson should help
take pressure off the overused Edwin Diaz.
Rosario’s offensive development is also cause for celebration. Michael Conforto could top his career highs
in run production this year, too.
So if all of these things are clicking, why would the team
consider breaking up the band? Well, the
problem is that there are a great many folks who for one reason or another do
not fit neatly into the future. Rather
than lose them for nothing, it would be more sensible to see how you could
build on this solid core for 2020 and beyond.
Todd Frazier is going to be a free agent. He’s not going to get a QO. That means he simply walks out the door in
September and you get nothing in return for his horrific 2018 and his improved
but hardly stellar 2019. If you move him
now even for an A-ball wildcard, that’s better than nothing. You’d also gain a half year of salary
relief.
Zack Wheeler is in a similar situation albeit with the
complication of his IL stint. Who in the
room thinks he’s worth an $18 million QO at the end of the year? Anyone?
Bueller? Remember the curse of
Neil Walker. The Mets “shrewdly”
extended him a QO because there was no way he would take that when lucrative multi-year
offers were bound to come flooding in.
We all saw what happened. By some
reports Wheeler, warts and all, is the number 4 ranked talent who could be
moved mid-year. Cash in on him now! You could always be the team that extends him
a multi-year offer and trading him away won’t preclude that from
happening. They did it with Jeurys
Familia, right?
If you do indeed trade away Wheeler, then you probably want
to hold onto Jason Vargas. At an
incremental cost of just $6 million above what it would cost to buy him out,
you’re not likely going to do much better talent-wise while you give Anthony
Kay another year to develop.
I’d volunteered before that the Mets might want to dangle
both Michael Conforto and Dom Smith on the market, but many talent evaluators
are higher on Smith given how much financial control he still has in front of
him versus the more expensive Conforto.
It’s a hard pill to swallow to trade away Smith when he’s finally
realizing his potential but unless you’re thinking he’s going to supplant the
Polar Bear at 1st base or will turn into a credible outfielder, he
has much more value as a trade chip than he does as a benchwarmer.
Pay down the inflated salary for Juan Lagares and pick up
one of those low level wildcards as well.
He will be a free agent at year’s end and won’t be retained, so wish him
well and clear his roster spot.
Finally, Wilson Ramos is definitely doing enough with the
bat that he would be attractive to another team. Familiar face Rene Rivera is having a .270/17
HR year in AAA and can take the backup role while Nido assumes primary catching
duties. Ramos might net a AA
prospect, not in the top 100, but
without paying down salary you take what you can get to pick up about $15
million of salary flexibility between the remainder of this year and 2020.
Would any of these changes have a severe negative impact on
the Mets? It’s hard to say. Somewhere in a universe far, far away lurk
the likes of Jed Lowrie, Brandon Nimmo and (ha ha ha ha ha) Yoenis Cespedes. There are some AAA folks having credible
seasons with the bat, including old mediocrity Ruben Tejada. The point is that the most optimistic metrics
have the Mets at a 9% probability of reaching the post-season. That says there’s a 91% chance they won’t. Consequently prepare for it next year by
becoming sellers this year.
6 comments:
Agreed Reese. Makes no sense not to sell. More importantly, get a better plan. Build the team on Pitching, speed, and defense. The three compliment each other. You can go for power at the corner positions but stress speed and defense at SS, 2nd Base, and CF. Once you have a plan you can figure out how to get there through selling, buying, etc. Think last night's game would have gone 16 innings if the Mets had the ability to manufacture runs? How many bullpen blowouts were magnified by poor defense. This is not a new Mets problem. The Cardinals beat the Mets in the 80's because they stressed fun-da-mentals. Hopefully, one day the owners will figure this out.
Last night, the bullpen was strong, but ultimately failed miserably again. The bullpen is guilty of criminally negligent homicide this year, and the Wilpon's prints are all over the firearm.
What teams do you suggest looking at to improve the defense,speed and pitching?
Curious if St Louis could be trade partners? They have a guy Carlson who plays CF has power and can steal bases.
I agree with everything you said. The problem is management?
They built a big stadium built for pitching-speed ,the former GM,brought the fences in.
What to do as Met fan
Steve
Steve, as Adam Shine say "We are sharing a brain". I really like the Astros backup Center Fielder Shaw who currently has a 400 on base average in MLB and last year stole 70 bases between AAA and AA. He made an amazing catch against the Mets too in Spring training. Once you know what type of players you need to build a team around you can start to look for the players to fit the puzzle. But you first need a vision and a plan. One that fits your ball park would help.
Reese
I share your plan.
Hopefully, Mets fans that were optimisti woke up this morning, checked last night's final score and have become pessimistic like you and I.
Remember. Everytime you lose a game it takes 2 more wins to straighten the ship.
A cold streak with this team is very sustainable.
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