7/11/19

Tom Brennan - CAN THE METS RIGHT THE SHIP AFTER THE ALL STAR BREAK?

9 comments

A long time fan's reaction to yet another season starting with 2 weeks of great promise and 80 games of vomitous play is to scream "we're sinking - trade almost everyone."

First, though, is there any realistic chance of a run at the post season?  

Let's analyze:


THE ODDS ARE INDEED MIGHTY DAUNTING

13.5 games behind the talented, division-leading Braves, and 7 games out of a Wild Card spot, behind 8 teams.  So the Division title seems completely out of reach, and the problem with this wild card picture is passing several other teams to get there, any of whom could get hot.

The Mets' 40-50 record would require at least a 45-27 finish to have a chance at Wild Card Heaven - after the most recent 31-46 stretch by the team, that seems far-fetched.

However, like I said, let's analyze:


GUYS WHO OUGHT TO CONTINUE EXCELLING

Pete "Derby" Alonso and Jeff McNeil ought to continue to dazzle and amaze.


STARTERS OUGHT TO DO BETTER

The Mets' starting rotation actually improved overall as time went on.  Jake should pitch better the rest of the way than he has so far.  Ditto Thor.  Ditto Zack.


GUYS WHO OUGHT TO CONTINUE TO DO PRETTY WELL

Rosario, Ramos, and Conforto should continue to be solid, if not great, as should Frazier and JD Davis.


GUYS WHO OUGHT TO HIT BETTER

Robbie Cano can't be worse, I'd think, so he has to get better, with some signs of that lately - hitting .346 in his last 7 games.  2 RBIs in his last 15 games, though? COME ON!!


THE PEN HAS GOTTEN REINFORCEMENTS

The gosh-awful pen, including Edwin Diaz and Seth Lugo, recently got Familia, Justin Wilson and Avilan back to replace dysfunctional pieces.  So there is hope the pen could climb back to average from here on out.


THE METS HAVE ADAPTED TO AVOID THE AWFUL CF PRODUCTION OF THE 1ST HALF:

Nimmo, Lagares, Broxton, Gomez, and Altherr have had the majority of CF ABs this year and astonishingly, have hit just .182 (76 for 418) this season.  Forcing Dom Smith (.304) into the OF may downgrade the defense a notch or two, but it fixes the offense coming from the green, green OF pastures.


SUBS HAVE DONE WELL:

After some trial and error, Hecchavaria and Nido have hit well enough as subs.  Could be better, but by Mets subs' standards, doing quite well.


HOWEVER:

All of the above would have to jell remarkably well, and immediately, to do what it takes to get to a Wild Card.

Getting Jed Lowrie back as sort of a trade deadline acquisition, much less at any time in 2019, seems iffier by the day - the silence on his "progress" is deafening.  Francesca said the other day he thinks Jed will not play in 2019.


So, realism sets in - the cause is most likely lost, and moves could be coming at any time.

Zack Wheeler is not controlled after this season, so his trade from the Mets, therefore, seems almost inevitable.  Perhaps another starter as well could go.  Trading such starters, though, needs to bring back future impact players - the recent seasons' dumps of contracts for hard throwing relievers have resulted in almost nothing to help the team.  Maybe free agent Todd Frazier too (.260/.364/.481 in his last 30 games ought to be attractive to another team).

Doing a player(s) dump could cause the Mets to nose dive, since viable, game-ready starting pitching call ups do not seem to be available.  

Mazza could get to start, but to expect success from him is a stretch...or from Wilmer Font, Chris Flexen, Corey Oswalt, Anthony Kay, or even Mickey Jannis.

But hey...nose dives are good for higher draft picks.  

We need VERY high picks.   If you lose, lose BIG.

So it should get real interesting here real soon.


What do your own analyses tell you could happen in the next 3 weeks up to July 31?

9 comments:

Tom Brennan said...

I took a poll last night - my brother Steve - used to voraciously watch games. Not any more - he has been nauseated too many times with how the Wilpons have mishandled this team.

Will he go to games? No.

He says he may not go until they sell the team.

Anonymous said...

Not with Captain Queeg on Board

Mack Ade said...

Too busy watching Live PD.

Reese Kaplan said...

Unrelated sad news today...pitcher, broadcaster and author Jim Bouton passed away at age 80. Ball Four was a turning point in how baseball got chronicled. Sorry to hear this news.

Hobie said...

Jim Bouton RIP. Loved that book, but confess Brosnan's "Long Season" was a better "inside baseball" book...and an absolute delight for this, then 15 yr old.

Mets: BP has to do a 180 for anything remotely good to happen.

Tom Brennan said...

In honor of Jim Bouton, let's call up Mickey Jannis this season. People didn't think knuckleballer RA Dickey could be successful either. Other than 3 bad outings, Jannis has been excellent.

Met Monkey said...

Yes on Live PD and Mickey Jannis. Both are doing amazing work!

Reese Kaplan said...

No risk, no reward. I've been all for blowing it up for several years instead of the constant half-measures. Maybe this time they'll do it. It would be music to the Wilpons' ears as it would mean many expensive or soon-to-be expensive pieces would be on someone else's payroll. Then they could increase profits while losing.

Tom Brennan said...

Reese, if the Mets could replicate Houston, I'd be OK with that. This team is a combination of fatal decisions and just plain cursed luck. Don't believe the latter? Just look at Wright, Cespedes, Lowrie, for starters.

Mack's Mets © 2012