One question the Mets have to ask themselves before a sell off is if the Mets have any chance at all to compete for a Wild Card. Is there a GLIMMER OF HOPE?
Obviously the chances are slim - but how slim?
It is driven by several things:
Free-agent-to-be Zack Wheeler seems a certainty to get traded, and he sure would be needed if the Mets have any chance at all to secure a Wild Card.
The only thing that seems to have a chance to head off such a trade is an immediate hot streak. Hey the Mets are STREAKING, with 2 straight road wins against the mighty Marlins, so one can fantasize, right?
The fact, though, is that the Mets next play the .630 Twins IN MINNESOTA - and the Twins are on a 102 win pace. But it is just two games.
Then comes the Giants, hotter of late, but still not a great team at 6 games under .500. Four games. On the road.
Win 5 of 6 of those, which end July 21, as improbable as that might seem, and maybe (right or wrong) the Mets hold off on pulling the trigger.
Then comes home games against the so-so Padres and Pirates followed by a road series against the improved but still sub-.500 White Sox, the first two of which come before August.
Then a road series vs. the so-so Pirates, and then a 4 game Citifield set against the lousy Marlins, before the Nationals become the Mets opponent half way thru August.
So, before the Nationals, about 22 games. To avoid a Wheeler trade, they'd have to win like crazy right away, and for the rest of July; if that were to occur, they'd need to stay hot leading up to the Nationals. 16-6 would be needed.
The fact that it took the Mets 3 months to finally win another road series makes this all seem highly remote.
Are there signs of life among faltering players? Edgar Diaz, yes...Robbie Cano, yes...Justin Wilson, yes...Luis Avilan, yes...Thor, yes.
But Jed Lowrie no, Juan Lagares, no, and worst of all, Jeurys Familia, no.
If Familia does not immediately (as in, starting tomorrow) return to 2018 competence, is there any chance?
Familia has been "Frank Francisco terrible" - well, that's not true - Jeurys has been MUCH worse. So this Familia flaw, unlikely to immediately and dramatically change, makes a turn around seem highly improbable.
A 2018 version of Familia is essential to a decent bullpen, rather than the one that has sabotaged the season so far more than anything else. Without that, the bullpen will remain below average, leaving the Mets no chance of a comeback.
Defense remains poor - and there are no immediate fixes for that. Hard to believe any sustainable win streaks can be engineered with poor defense.
You may have a 4th (Mickey), a 5th (?), etc., but you get the point.
So, if you are sitting in Brodie's war room, you may be willing to see how the next 6 games go before trading Wheeler, unless blown away by a deal before then. Actually, there even being some sense of improved play would put the Mets in a better trading position, as they could say to a bartering team, "we feel we are still in it, so if you want Zack (or Todd, or Vargas), you will have to pay a little extra."
So, get ready for the great annual player dump - because hope, realistically, almost never springs eternal in Citifield.