If you want to open up an interesting debate among Mets fans, bring up the topic of free-agents-to-be and who deserves to be retained before hitting the open market. Passions run high, logic runs low and there will be a great many emotions without much substance behind them.
This summer the Mets are making due with a stellar top three pitching trio of Jacob deGrom, Marcus Stroman and Taijuan Walker. No one can ask for better pitching than these three hurlers have provided, but come 2022 the cast of characters may very well likely change.
Slated for free agency at year’s end are Marcus Stroman and still recovering Noah Syndergaard. Right off the bat everyone wants to pull out all stops (and locks on the bank vault) to retain Noah Syndergaard for the next five or more years. If you look up his numbers, he’s certainly seemingly worth that kind of consideration. Thus far in his career he’s got a respectable 47-30 record. His ERA is a very appealing 3.31. His WHIP is quite good at 1.161. He’s struck out 9.7 batters per 9 IP and walked just 2.1. On paper that looks very good indeed.
However, when you dig a little deeper you find that Syndergaard has missed quite a bit of time due to injury during his young career. For his five years he’s logged 716 IP which amounts to about 3.5 full seasons of work. He’s notched 32 starts once and 31 starts once. He hasn’t pitched at all since 2019 and now hopes to cash in after a long period of arm recovery. The sites have him slated for about $25 million per season. Stretched over 5 years that’s $125 million. That’s money exceeding what Zack Wheeler got.
Now Marcus Stroman hasn’t resonated as well with the fans as had Syndergaard. Part of it is sheer size contrast between the two of them. Part of it is Syndergaard’s much higher velocity. The fact is that Stroman has not pitched at the same level, but he’s pitched many more innings. In the period from 2019 through 2021 Stroman is throwing to a 3.00 ERA. He doesn’t rack up as many Ks and allows more baserunners, but it’s hard to argue with that level of effectiveness. He’s on a one-year $19 million deal right now but the press has him slated for a $15 million per year deal. I think that’s probably low and $20 million per season is likely more accurate going forward. If you project that over 5 seasons, he’s a $100 million pitcher.
Now before you start hopping up and down arguing tall blonde vs. short workman, remember that one invisible man, Carlos Carrasco, is due back for the full 2022 season. If by chance both pitchers opted to sell themselves to the highest bidder in Wheeler style, you will still have three solid pitchers for the upcoming year. The problem is you need five of them.
Personally, I’m thinking the health history of Syndergaard, his less-than-ideal Twitter personality and the $25 million premium it would cost to retain him, maybe Stroman is the better way to go. He provides a very different look compared to flamethrowers on the staff and he’s notched 920 IP in the majors.
A parallel situation exists in the outfield, too. Michael Conforto is a home grown here to Mets fans, has never created negative publicity and seems the past few years to have been on an offensive upswing. Again you hear everyone clamoring for Mr. Cohen to break the bank to keep him a part of the team for the next several years. Like Syndergaard, he’s projected to earn $25 million per season. He’s a fine ballplayer, but is he at that level? In his best year he was a 3.7 WAR player after providing 27 HRs, 68 RBIs and batting .275. 2019’s 33 HR/92 RBI performance actually earned him fewer WAR points (probably due to his .257 AVG). His only All Star appearance was that 2017 season. Right now baseballreference.com projects him in a full season to hit 29 HRs, drive in 86 and bat .258.
I’ve drawn this parallel once before, but Conforto is a left handed version of much maligned former Mets right handed hitter Kevin McReynolds. He would average 23 HRs, drive in 87 and hit .265 over the course of a single season. Granted, those numbers were done more than 20 years ago, but the highest paycheck he ever received was just $3.7 million.
Nowadays numbers are greatly inflated and the truth is Conforto deserves quite a bit more, but I don’t see it being in the $25 million per season range. Consequently if that’s what Scott Boras is seeking for his client, the Mets might be better off providing a Qualifying Offer which he would likely turn down and get themselves a draft pick. Then take the $125 million or more you would earmark for Conforto to address other areas.
The bullpen is another area the Mets need to address with Jeurys Familia, Aaron Loup and Dellin Betances all pending free agency. Yes, Edwin Diaz has improved greatly and there are other commendable arms out there, but that’s a lot of innings to sacrifice without having to delve deep into the coffers to find replacements.
There are also bench player considerations with Kevin Pillar and Jonathan Villar both scheduled to make themselves available to the highest bidder. Obviously the first place Mets would be definitely quite a bit further down in the standings without the contributions they’ve gotten from these players, so at the lower end of the spectrum it might be wise to lock one or both of them up before the auction begins.
So, who do you keep and to whom do you wish a fond farewell?
5 comments:
Reese, as I beat a dead horse, I am still strongly wondering if Tylor Megill slides into the rotation. Right on cue, his second AAA start was terrific...3.2 hitless innings, allowed a solo HR to a rehabbing major leaguer. and ended up at 5.1 IP, 2 H, 1 BB, 7 K. Not quite a deGrom stat line, but exactly what I was hoping for.
With deGrom hurting, hopefully no starts missed but if he does, it would still seem premature to call up Megill after slightly under 10 AAA innings. I'd hope Megill proves ready for call up no later than the ASB. If you get a durable quality starter out of him at minimum wage, that impacts things for 2022. Szapucki, as I sit here on Long Island, now seems to clearly have slipped behind Megill, who throws harder and seems to be rising mighty fast.
I would try to sign Stro, Familia, Villar, and Pillar.
Mack - I would add Thor to that group. Otherwise, he becomes the next Wheeler.
I think it's possible that Syndergaard might sign a 1-year deal. With a September return most likely, I think he might have to establish his value before he gets a long-term deal. I do think Stroman has made a case for at least trying to make a deal with him. Of course,if he continues to pitch this well there would be quite a bit of competition. I'll tell you what, though, I'm starting to believe that MLB and the Players Association are not going to be able to reach a deal this winter. The strong threat of a strike/lockout is going to impact these negotiations for sure
It comes down to what it ALWAYS comes down to PITCHING PITCHING AND MORE PITCHING. We have the owner and the FO personnel who can fill all the other spots but don't let any pitching go.
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