6/11/21

Remember1969: June 10, 2021 One Third Down, 108 to go:

 



Remember’s Ramblings at the One Third Marker (54 of 162 games)

The 2021 Mets have so far have been a case of the outstanding, the good, the bad, and the downright ugly.    I guess there is a little mix of ‘the plain OK’ in there as well.  The following is a review and what it might mean for the next two thirds of the year.

The outstanding:    

There is really only one.    Jake.   There is not more to say.    I wrote in my pre-season prediction that he will win his third Cy Young.   He is well on his way.

The good:   

-  The Mets are in first place and are 6 games over .500.    My pre-season prediction was 90-72.     So far so good – one third is 30-24.      

-  The bench has been strong.   Without Pillar, Villar, Nido, McKinney, and even Guillorme before he was hurt, this team would be under water.      

-  Taijaun Walker and Marcus Stroman have both been (very) good,  with Walker knocking on the outstanding door.  

-  The bullpen in general has been very good.  They have held a lot of games together.  

-  The rest of the NL East division is borderline terrible.

- Overall team defense. 

- Seemingly a great team clubhouse/character.  The rat or raccoon mystery aside, there has been quite a bit of press about the closeness of this bunch.  You can see it in the dugout as they are always on the steps cheering and rooting for the others.   

The bad:

- Alonso only has 10 home runs.   And until the last week or so, he could have been in the ugly category below.   But 10 for a third of a year extrapolates to 30 for the year.   That would be a disappointment.

-  The back end of the rotation.  Peterson seems lost.  Lucchesi may be a bit better, Yamamoto didn’t show much in his short audition.  Nobody has taken the fourth slot as their own.

The ugly:

-  The biggest bullet here has to be the poor offense.  Who thought  Lindor and McCann would look so bad for 2.5 months?

-  The close second is the injuries.   Losing Nimmo, Conforto, McNeil, Carrasco, and the bad news on Syndergaard really hurts.

Finally, the just OK:  

- Luis Rojas has done a better field management job than in 2020 so far, but there are still some head-scratching moves.  

 - Dom Smith hasn’t been awful, but he certainly hasn’t been his 2020 self.   His bat seems a bit streaky.   By report I have seen, his fielding has been better than anticipated.    I have not seen much of his play to make that call, but he does seem to be making the plays.

So, what does this all mean for the remainder of the year?

It is hard to tell.   30 wins times 3 = 90 wins.    90 wins will take the division.  

I am predicting the top 3 in the rotation will continue their current paths.   This bodes well for the season outcome we all want.

It appears that the main cogs of the offense in Lindor, McCann, and Alonso are coming out of their slumbers and are hitting much better.   This is a huge positive sign.  

The bench guys have been getting valuable playing time.  That will be key down the road as they will still fill in frequently evan as the regulars come back.   They have found a couple good outfielders in  McKinney and Williams.    (for the record, I think Khalil Lee will be a very good major league player at some point, just not in 2021).  Hopefully they don’ t need to find anymore Maybin’s out there in the salebins.

The injured guys should be back within the next month.   It is hard to tell whether that is a good thing or a bad thing.   You’d have to think a healthy McNeil > Peraza, but this team did not fold up when the injuries hit.     It would be nice to get an effective Carrasco back, but that is a pipedream at this point.

I think fixing the #4 rotation spot to get average performance for 5 innings will go a long way.  Internally or through a trade or injury return really doesn’t matter to me.  If Szapucki or Megill can fill the slot or they can fix Peterson, that is great, if not, the trade deadline is a month away.  There must be somebody out there that can take some innings – Hello Cincinnati?  Minnesota?  Anyone?

One other point to keep an eye on is that they seem to be a bit more aggressive on the bases – even Dom has two SB’s lately.   I like that trend.  

It seems that at this point that the other 4 division rivals are not going to be able to mount much of a challenge.  Neither Washington nor Miami are good teams, and Atlanta and Philly have both shown weaknesses that will be hard to overcome.  

I will make a third of the way through the year prediction that says that even better days are coming.   The offense will be better in the second and third thirds than the first, the starting pitching will hold its own, the bullpen will continue to be what it has been, and the bench will provide the goods as needed.

Playing deep into October is a good possibility.

7 comments:

Tom Brennan said...

A 90 win pace is stunning, considering how many things have gone wrong.

I disagree on Walker - he HAS been outstanding. I think his only hiccup was when he got wild a bit in frigid games.

Also disagree on Lindor and McCann - 2 horrible months, but a great half a month. McCann has been on fire, and his overall #s are now slightly bette than Dom's. Lindor bottomed at .157 and wasted little time jumping to .211. The incline should continue.

I think when the Squirrel, or Nimmo, Davis, and Conforto, for that matter, return, all will be babied with an eye on the post season. We need the A bats healthy come post-season. That said, the total package of Villar and Pillar might match the total package of a healthy Nimmo and Davis.

Looking further out, I wonder who wants to sign Conforto to a huge multi-year, high dollar deal based on this season? Not me. Mauricio may not be that far away from being an MLB OF by OD 2022, as will Lee and Cortes. I let MC go, unless he wants a one year deal, and hope one of those 3 grabs the ring. if I had to rank the three's chances to take over OD 2022 in RF, I'd say Lee 40%, Cortes 40%, Mauricio 20% (because he is further behind and striking out a lot still). All three have time in 2021 to realize they might have thins opportunity in 2022.

Remember1969 said...

Yea, I almost put Walker in the outstanding category, but wanted to leave deGOAT on his own pedestal.

OK. .i agree, two months for Lindor and McCann. They have both certainly had a good start to June.

Conforto is a tough one. He is sitting away a lot of dollars at this point. I would think he might be a candidate for a one year qualifying offer (which I would also think he might accept). I don't think anybody is going to give him the stupid money that was bantered about early in the year. See: Springer, George.

I see the OD '22 starting outfield being Smith - Williams - Nimmo, or Smith - Nimmo - McNeil. I think Lee and Cortes, while both on the right path at this point, will need a few more MiLB at-bats. Mauricio won't be ready, either - he has never had an at-bat above A-ball.

The wildcard for '22 is Cano. I have no idea how to predict that one.

Tom Brennan said...

McCann last 15 games: 5 HRs, 16 RBIs. My guess is he is the hottest hitting catcher in all of baseball. A big reason why the offense is looking potent lately.

Jake is in a universe far beyond outstanding. His very own universe.

I do love Pillar - and while I often emphasize offense, he is the total package. I hope he is a 3/4 next year for Mets.

I would not discount Cortes being ready. He is hitting almost like McNeil did in 2018 for Binghamton. Jeff then got to AAA, continued to rake and got called up for several weeks that year. Cortes will have plenty more games this season (Binghamton, for instance, has 106 games to go). He (smartly for Mets' management) bats lead off, so he should get a ton of ABs.

Lee is (as of right now) ahead of Cortes - and his AAA season also has 100 plus games left - he needs to corral his strikeouts to progress.

I think, though, for both, each will have garnered enough ABs to be ready to rock in 2022 from opening day forward.

THEY JUST NEED TO STAY HEALTHY AND GET AB'S. Avoid walls, gentlemen, they are not your friend.

Anonymous said...

It's too bad you haven't seen much of Smith in LF. He's been terrible, can't make any plays that aren't routine. He's gotten a lot of soft press on that account, but it's really bad.

I went into this season with an "undecided" on 3 guys: Smith, Alonso, Davis.

I wanted to keep and play them all.

I recently came to the conclusion that I'd flip Smith at any point. I don't think he fits and I don't think that bat is THAT good to overcome the horrendous OF defense.

Put it this way: If the Mets were fully healthy, and it was a playoff game, I'd sit him for Pillar. I wouldn't go into that game with a butcher in LF.

Defense matters.

Isn't that what we've learned -- and again, and again, and again?

The Mets got everyone hurt and somehow held it together when many of us felt it would all fall apart. Lost in that narrative is the fact that every substitute has been a defensive improvement. Viller at 3B over Davis; Peraza at 2B over McNeil; McKinney over Conforto; Whoever in CF over Nimmo. The offense has taken a serious hit, but the defense has tightened up across the board.

Dom in LF is the glaring problem.

Hey, I *like* the guy. It's a fit problem. There's no way on earth I want him to be opening day LF in 2022. You want a guy out there who can chase down baseballs.

On JD, ultimately it might be a similar issue. He doesn't feel like an answer at 3B. I do love the bat and think we've really missed it against LHP. Villar has played too well to ignore and the glove is an everyday improvement. JD is part-time guy; if NL goes DH next season, he could be more valuable.

Pete is maybe the dumbest guy on the team; he's hard to take when he talks. But he can hit the bomb and the defense is (barely) passable. I just can't discount his 53 HR & 120 RBI rookie season. That guy shows up sometimes.

I could see McNeil in the outfield next season. That is, I think it's the only place we'll see him. I believe the Lindor-McNeil discord is real and Francisco has all the power in that relationship.

As I've said many times, I don't want to overpay on Conforto. 6/$150 sounds good to me. Somebody else will likely want to go beyond those terms and, okay, that's fine.

I'm enjoying this year, this team. But I can imagine quite a bit of turnover in 2022. Probaby best to shelve those thoughts until later.

Is there a game tonight?

Jimmy



Gary Seagren said...

To me the biggest disappointments are CC and Dom. I really thought his breakout last year would follow thru. Hey Remember 69 don't forget McKinney he's been great and if he keeps it up could replace MC for chump change.

Tom Brennan said...

Gary, more often than not, guys like McKinney revert to their mean. Hopefully, he will be in the exception category and blossom. Pillar REALLY likes him, and what do I know compared to Pillar? (Or anyone, really - LOL)

McKinney career stats remind me of Kirk Nieuwenhuis. Hopefully, McKinney will be much better than Kirk as a Met.

Smith still has 2/3 of the season to show us 2020 was not a fluke - I hope he can. Needs to get the RBI bat reawakened. To his credit, OF play much better.

Tom Brennan said...

Jimmy, you are probably more right on Dom's D than me, as you've likely seen more game action than me. I was hoping he'd hit like Yogi in LF after his 2020 - instead, he is hititng just like 1968's Ed Kranepool, which was not very stellar. That said, they need to bridge Smith over to 2022 and the DH. Cano coming back? Perhaps, and we'll deal with that at the time - first of all there could be a baseball strike, during which Cano would not get paid. Davis as DH part of the time? Perhaps.

This season proves you need a roster with about 12 guys who can PLAY. Imagine where the Mets would be without Pillar and Villar and instead with some of the marginal backup pieces of yesteryear? The first half of 2015's dreadful offensive subs come to mind. Ugly.