Paul Articulates – Some thoughts about the path forward

I have written many posts, all focused on a central issue regarding this Mets team, its leadership, its players, and its prospects.  This is not one of those posts.  We are at an unprecedented crossroads where “our team” has underperformed at historic levels.  It is too late to think the team is “just in a slump and it’s a long season”, and it is too early to have a fire sale and go on a rebuilding journey.  

This is a season that will always suffer from a horrific May/June performance that did not match the lofty expectations coming off a 101 win season.  That will be true even if the team wins 60% of its remaining games; even if it goes on an 11 game win streak like the inferior Cincinnati Reds; even if it sweeps the Phillies in the upcoming series.  

I am personally still trying to figure out where we go from here.   I don’t know.  There are many ways, but each is tough to support because of external factors that are not controllable.  So this post just replays some of my thoughts so the readers can see one point of view and hopefully weigh in with theirs.  Here goes:

• My friend Mack consistently says, “No one in this league is going to help Steve Cohen”.  This is the ultimate truth when one considers the options for trading players, acquiring free agents, and grabbing players off the waiver wire.  Steve Cohen outspent everyone to build a team that can win in the short term as well as the long term, and I’m sure the other owners are envious of his financial clout.  They will not agree to any deal that could be favorable to the Mets because they are the bully on the block.  So forget about trading Drew Smith for Alexis Diaz – it is just not going to happen.

• The Atlanta Braves and the Philadelphia Phillies have risen like a Phoenix from the ashes in the last two years to make the World Series after a mediocre start to the season.  This can still happen to a talented team like the Mets, but it is very unlikely.  This team has regressed into bad habits where they believe that something will happen that will cause them to lose a lead or fail in a comeback.  If you don’t believe you won’t achieve.

• The pitching staff is in freefall.  There is not a single consistent performer on the team from the five starting pitchers to the middle relief to the late inning guys.  All of them has shown glimpses of the talent that had us excited earlier, but none of them has delivered the same level of performance game to game.  Put yourself in Buck Showalter’s shoes.  Do you remove the starter in the third inning after giving up multiple extra base hits, knowing that you will need to get good outings from at least four others to finish the ball game?  Or do you hope the starter self-corrects and gets a boost from an offense thlat can deliver 11 runs one night and then 1 run the next?

• Given the unsettling lack of consistency in the Mets’ pitching staff, one wonders if the new pitch clock and pickoff attempt rules have just changed the nature of pitching in MLB to their disadvantage.  If that is the case, then how would one explain the lack of consistent offensive performance by the Mets’ lineup?  Last year they were 2nd in MLB in on-base percentage; 5th in MLB in runs scored, and 6th in OPS.  This year they are no better than 14th in any of those categories despite fielding a team that is better on paper.

• The team has benefitted greatly from pushing top prospects Brett Baty and Francisco Alvarez into the starting lineup and allowing them to accumulate game experience for what should be exceptional careers.  Both have registered positive WAR this year, so they have helped the team, though not enough to push them over the top in their struggles.  The team has not opted to push other prospects into starting roles, such as Mark Vientos or Ronny Mauricio.  This may be “too much too soon”, or an unrealistic reliance on veterans with a history of success to begin to perform where they have failed to do so thus far.

So given all these somewhat random observations, where does this team proceed from here?  

There are paths towards rebuilding that would call up more prospects to season them for future years, but that throws in the towel for this season which is less than halfway done.  

There are paths towards acquiring “missing pieces” at the trade deadline but that often results in big financial commitments to aging players that have a very short term stay in New York – not a strategy for the long term.  

There are also paths towards regaining momentum with the current cast.  As hard as this is to accept now, in any other parallel universe, who would have argued with a starting cast including Nimmo, Marte, Lindor, Alonso, McNeil, Pham/Canha, and the two rookies?

My conclusion from all of this is that although all is not lost for this season, any future decisions have to prioritize the long term.  Don’t trade for four months of a new elite starting pitcher if it compromises depth in the organization.  Don’t play Narvaez over Alvarez unless the rookie needs a rest.   Trade an old arm for a young arm.  Let Edwin Diaz rehab on a more relaxed pace.  Bring up another young player in July and one in August.  Build the future.