6/30/23

Reese Kaplan -- It's Time for the Seaver Trade Again (Times Two)


Well, anyone who had the time and nothing else going on in their lives on Wednesday prior to the Mets vs. Brewers game had the opportunity to see the big owner of the New York Mets take up a reasonably significant amount of time saying a whole lot of nuttin'.  

Granted, he's not the one swinging the bat nor throwing from the mound but he is the one who has entrusted his baseball management team to figure out which players can do those things effectively.  It would appear it is not just the on-field personnel who are at fault here, but also the judgment of supposed game professionals who did their own version of a Darin Ruf transaction.

No, I wasn't expecting Steve Cohen to take the microphone and scream at the top of his lungs a'la Steinbrenner.  Nor did I expect him to take the blame personally for what others have failed to do.  However, it would have been reasonable for him to lay down the law calmly but firmly about accountability for one's actions.  

Firing a manager or a GM is not instantly going to make Francisco Lindor's batting average jump by 50 points nor will it lower pitchers' ERAs by 2 full runs.  It will send the signal that it's a 24X7 universe of performance with corrective actions needing to be taken rather than simply waiting for things to somehow magically get better.

Towards that end, I was one of the first to advocate the idea of putting the Mets starting pitching up for grabs.  Since then others have quietly started whispering and nudging that finishing in the second division is just as likely without Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander as it is with them.  

The difference here, of course, is that both are welcome to depart at year's end for little more than a draft pick if QOs were indeed offered.  Now at mid year you could get people from other clubs who are desperately in need of pitching reinforcement that is less of a crap shoot than a supplemental draft pick.

The big difference between this type of prospective transaction is the salary involved.  Steve Cohen did say one thing today that resonated with me and motivated this writing.  He said as far as he's concerned, the money is already spent so it didn't make him cringe to pay down Eduardo Escobar’s salary to increase the return of moderately well regarded AA pitchers, which is more than they would have gotten had he simply left as a free agent for 2024.

Now think about the $80 million plus due to Scherzer and Verlander.  While both are underperforming by their Cooperstown-bound pitching metrics, you can't take away their accomplishments nor ability.  We have seen games from both hurlers in which the opposing teams were rendered impotent to fight off the pitches they were throwing.  The multi Cy Young track records are indeed worth a lot and the returns should be substantial.

For Max Scherzer the deal is a little easier, as he has already stated he would waive his no-trade contract language to get moved elsewhere.  That being said, are the Mets building in that 3-5 year time frame for contention or are they all-in as they intended in 2023 only to have it blow up in their faces?  

Reverse the thinking for a minute and suppose that a top notch pitcher not named Shohei Ohtani was made available in trade right now and the Mets were in an acquiring mindset instead of the selling one they should embrace.  Let's say it was Gerritt Cole or Corbin Burnes or Sandy Alcantara who was offered up for the right trade price.  Wouldn't you as the Mets be ponying up established players and/or top prospects to land someone with that kind of talent?  

So here we have Max Scherzer who at age 38 is 104 games OVER .500 with a career ERA of just 3.13 (which includes his subpar 2023).  Wouldn't he be worth a king's ransom of talent in return?  Think now about the trade acquisitions if the Mets again paid down the already committed salary.

Can you say, "Wow!"?

Then we have the case of Justin Verlander.  He's a tad older than Scherzer but also sports a record 109 games over .500 with a career ERA of just 3.26.  He would net just about the same price in return.  


So is your plan for 2024 going to be repeating the same ineffective roster of 2023 or to build on a strong foundation made with effective midyear trades that can help fill in the gaps in the AA, AAA and MLB rosters?  For me, it would be better to make these difficult deals now than it would to lose both for draft picks or retain them even older at still higher salaries.

But hey, what do I know about winning?  I'm not a highly paid baseball professional like the Mets employ.  That's sure worked out well, huh?

7 comments:

Mack Ade said...

A couple of thoughts...

1. My hopes are that the Mets sit Marte for awhile. He is lost with both a bat and a glove.

2. So what do you think about my June prediction now?

Tom Brennan said...

mEGILL GOT WHIPPED BY A HARD-HITTING sCRANTON TEAM LAST NIGHT.

The plan B on pitchers (Mrgill, Peterson) has been a huge blow hole in the Mets hull this year, the biggest of course being Edwin.

We need to remember Edwin will be back, hopefully with the same hurricane force as last year. He made THE DIFFERENCE IN 2022. He fired everyone up. His loss this year was enormous. I'll guess 10 wins. Not all his - just the aura of feeling you are a winning team, not a losing team, would improve everyone.

Mets also suck in June - about when their will wilts away:

In 2018: The Mets (32-48) lost for the 10th time in 11 games and fell into last place for the first time this year. They finished 5-21 this month for the worst June in franchise history, and they've plummeted from 10 games over .500 to 15 under at an earlier date than any team in major league history, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.

Edwin prevented wilting in 2022.

Reese Kaplan said...

But back to the point of the article...should the Mets net the best they can get for their star pitchers whose contracts are expiring?

Mack Ade said...

(Was there an article here???)

My answer would be no unless the Mets want to write off 2024 as well

The 24 rotation now lines up as Max Verlander Senga Quintana and TBD

This is a weak rotation that would melt to the core without those two

The Mets need those contracts in place until guys like Hamel Tidwell Stuart and that Chistian fella mature

Tom Brennan said...

My answer? All options are on the table. Except the kids.

Rds900 said...

Agree.

Gary Seagren said...

Ohtani fills 2 huge holes then Senga Q and TBA.