Billy Eppler addressed the media on Tuesday. The thing that stood out to me the most were his thoughts on the trade deadline.
"We've got a decent amount of runway before the deadline. We hope that we can change the story. If we can, then we can add. If it doesn't, then we'll just have to create other opportunities and see what else exists out there" – Billy Eppler
Now I’m an optimistic person by nature. I want the Mets to win just as much as everyone else. However the math simply doesn’t support this comment. I decided to break down what the Mets need to do to sneak into the last Wild Card position.
The key is the performance of the last WC spot which is currently the Dodgers. They are on pace to win over 91 games as of Wednesday afternoon. The Mets need a staggering 56 wins over their next 83 games (.675) to exceed this total. I don’t need to tell you that this is an improbable task. The red hot Rays who sport the best record in baseball at the moment have only won at a .659 rate. This would mean winning every single series from now until the end of the year.
3rd WC win % (Dodgers) | 0.564 |
3rd WC 162 game pace | 91.368 |
Mets Wins | 36 |
Remaining games | 83 |
Games need to get to 3WC | 56 |
Winning % of remaining games for WC | 0.675 |
Winning % of top team in MLB (Rays) | 0.659 |
Even the most optimistic fan would have a hard time arguing this roster has this kind of streak in them.
Alternatively you could argue that the top WC spots go on a sustained losing streak. Let’s look at this possibility.
Marlins | 0.575 |
Giants | 0.570 |
Dodgers | 0.564 |
Phillies | 0.526 |
Brewers | 0.519 |
If one of the Marlins, Giants, Dodgers performs very poorly during the 2nd half and the Phillies & Brewers don’t surpass the .526 win rate they are at now let's redo the math.
3rd WC win % (Dodgers) | 0.526 |
3rd WC 162 game pace | 85.212 |
Mets Wins | 36 |
Remaining games | 83 |
Games need to get to 3WC | 50 |
Winning % of remaining games for WC | 0.602 |
Even in this new contrived & very unlikely scenario where the third Wild Card drops to a .526 winning percentage (85 wins) the Mets would still need to win at a .600 clip to surpass this.
This would be their best path into the dance but would basically require at least 3 of the top 5 other contending teams to play terribly in the 2nd half. You could argue the Phillies (-12) / Brewers (-25) / Marlins(-6) all have negative run differentials and have outplayed their current win rates but the Mets also have a -14 run differential themselves. This brings the Cubs (+28) and Padres (+26) into the conversation as well. They have underperformed their differential and a strong run by them is another barrier to the Mets chances.
This brings me back to Eppler's observations and the harsh reality: The Mets simply cannot afford to buy at the deadline, given these low probabilities. Yet, maintaining the status quo isn't an option either. Unless they pull off an unprecedented winning streak over the next four weeks, their best strategy is to sell. By doing so, they can maximize the value of the players that won’t feature in their 2024 plans. Furthermore, this strategy also provides an opportunity to give the “baby” Mets ample playing time, allowing them to adapt and prepare for the upcoming year.
15 comments:
Facts are facts…the reality is indeed harsh.
Very nice analysis
The Mets were given this morning a 0.1% chance of winning the WS
Cue drop glove
I'm looking forward to the kids playing the last half of the season once roster space happens
Excellent post and reading between the lines of SC presser he pretty much confirmed it and said we're not trading prospects in any scenario.
Gary, he is learning the hard way that, even for a multi-billionaire, old, marquis free agents can be a formula for disaster. Why not take a chance on cheap youths. They can lose far more cheaply, and maybe they'll succeed.
Forget the other teams,bottom line the amets aren’t very good. The BP spotty,the starters below average,and the hitting is terrible. Does anyone think this is a 500 baseball team?
Dallas, excellent analysis and superb reality check. I think that Eppler/Cohen know this as well, but for fan retention / ticket sales reasons they probably think it is very early to say it out loud. They will sell at the deadline.
Woodrow, I think this is a .500 baseball team but I would have difficulty convincing anyone that they are a .600 baseball team, so the scenarios in this post where they play above .600 are improbable.
Why would you think this is a 500 club? Do you like the starting pitching? Do you think the hitting is in the top half of the league?
Yeah I think Cohen confirmed yesterday that there isnt really a scenario where he was buying. Even if they go on a sustained win streak before the deadline its not worth the risk of dumping prospect to hope the continue to play well in the last 2 months and only maybe sneak in. If they already held a Wild Card position it would be a very different story obviously.
New math after yesterdays games: .671% to catch the Dodgers over 82 games. The Phillies & Brewers won and increased their percentages (.532 & .525). It would require a .622 win % now to even take over 4th place WC instead of .610
I wonder why we never hear about the Marlins GM Ng. I guess she's doing a pretty good job but don't know how much of their current success is due to her. Do any of you know?
Excellent analysis. It also points out the fallacy in comparing this team to the 1973 squad, because it overlooks the fact that 50 years ago, all of the other teams in the division played poorly. That ain't happening this year.
My hope is that they land at least one blue chipper when they do sell off.
Would Scherzer bring back a blue chipper? No one else will. Raley or Robertson could bring back a decent player or prospect. Don’t see any other trade chip bringinging back much more than a Triple A set up guy with options.
She's too busy trying to buy a syllable
The only chance any sell off could bring back a blue chipper would be at the minor league level
(IMO)
Vientos and Mauricio together wouldn’t bring back a blue chipper.
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