6/22/23

Tom Brennan - Puzzling Mets Prospect Rankings; and So Much More!

Ronny Mauricio

I get easily puzzled.  How about you?

When I go to the store and compare the same product, but the 28 ounce one is more expensive than the 40 ounce one, I get puzzled. Stuff like that. The puzzle,ent of an amateur statistician.

Anyway, afoer all, I'm seeing what 22 year old Ronny Mauricio is doing this year in AAA, aren't you?

.325, with 36 extra base hits, 43 runs, 41 RBIs, and 11 steals in 65 games (thru Sunday, June 18).  Just 47 Ks.

And prior to that, in AA, in 540 at bats, 27 doubles, 27 HRs, 90 RBIs.

And the other night, batting lefty, he crushed two majestic, towering HRs to left center, 441 and 431 feet.  Entirely reminiscent of Darryl Strawberry.

Outstanding, right?...but...

Ranked # 4 on the Mets' site top 30 prospects list.

We fans and prognosticators all root for OF Alex Ramirez, but Alex, who is 21 months younger than Mauricio, is two rungs lower at High A Brooklyn.

There, in 56 games, .240 with 14 extra base hits, 28 runs and 30 RBIs.

And, 53 Ks in 56 games.

Ranked # 2. 

I'm puzzled.

Next...

Matt Allan, who has 10 innings since 2019,  

Ranked 20th.

Christian Scott, who this year in A and AA, in 32 innings, has 39 Ks, a 0.78 WHIP, 2.56 ERA and 2-1 record.  

Ranked 27th.

I'm puzzled.

Next...

William Lugo, age 21 IF, in Brooklyn, hitting .190/.267/.301 in 153 at bats, and 11 career steals in 243 games. 

Ranked 23rd.

Jose Peroza, just a 18 months older IF than William, is in AA, and in 38 games, has 31 RBIs and .298/.389/.545, and 22 steals in 404 pro games, and his season totals would be greater, most likely, had he not missed a few weeks. And he hit .337 from July to season’s end in 2022. But...

Not even ranked in the Mets top 30? Really?

I'm puzzled.


Next...

Jett Williams, 5’6”, age 19 IF, in St Lucie, is hitting .222/.416/.361 in 50 games, and 19 steals. 

Ranked 3rd. Deservedly. Expect big things from the Golden Jett.

Matt Rudick, yes, he is 24, 5 years older older than Jett, but is also 5’6”. He leads the Eastern League by far in on base % and is at .294/.440/.487, 11 steals, and on base 175 time in his last 93 games, but...

Not even ranked in the Mets top 30? Really?

I'm puzzled.


I could go on - but you probably get the point, unless I’ve puzzled you.

That being...

Potential - and production - need to have a serious handshake when ranking prospects.

Don’t ignore the performance of the likes of Peroza and Rudick. They’re indisputably Top 30. (Heck, I had both in my top 25 this past off season, and nothing in 2023 has changed my mind about them being ranked.)

And prospect re-rankings should be monthly.

For instance, Jesus Baez (# 10; .143), Willie Fanas (# 24; .158)) and Simon Juan (# 25; .200) are all now in the Florida Complex League.  Heading into Wednesday's action, the trio are 16 for 96 (.167), with a HR apiece.  And then went 1 for 11 on Wednesday.  

Career-wise, the trio are hitting .230, .216, and .229, respectively, against DSL and FCL competition.

I'd move them down, and get Peroza and Rudick in there, along with unranked lefty Daniel Juarez, who in his career is 9-4, 199 Ks in 140 IP, and a 2.19 ERA. and 0.86 in 17 games this year.  Juarez has been crushing it, yet can't even sneak in at # 30?  

When that bonus baby Baez-Fanas-Juan trio ignites for a stretch, move them back up higher.

I would also remove any player who will miss all of the season, which includes Matt Allan and Bryce Montes de Oca.  

Put them instead in a footnote ("would have been ranked in the Top 30, but missing the entire season due to injury").

Add them back when healthy.  That would add a few players to the Top 30 list, which no doubt would thrill and encourage them.

AMAZING METS MINORS EVENT OF THE NIGHT:

Jace Beck, who incredibly walked 21 and fanned 35 in his first 16 innings this year, threw 2 hitless innings last night, walking none and fanning none. What an amazing game considering his prior season stats.

Team-wise, St Lucie lost 17-0 in a 6 inning game. It’s just one game, they say. They actually played two, losing the other by a score of 3-2.

METS?

Mets lost.  It’s what they do. 

Now 20-33 in last 53 games, shades of the 1967 Mets.

Losers lose. Winners win. Somewhere, Edwin Diaz is rehabbing.


Bill Clinton quote: “It’s the pitching, STUPID!”

The Mets have won 34 games. In games won, they have the 10th best team ERA…2.38. 

Cubs, surprisingly, are best at a superlative 1.61 in their wins. 

(In the Year of the Pitcher, in 1968, the Mets’ ERA in their 73 wins? An insane 1.38, with the Braves best at 1.21).

In the Mets’ 40 losses, they have the 26th worst team ERA, 6.82. Teams 27 thru 29 are only slightly worse in ERA in losses.  

(In the Year of the Pitcher, in 1968, the Mets’ ERA in their 89 losses? Exactly 3 runs per game better than this year, at 3.82.)

Worst team in losses in 2023, shockingly? 

The Dodgers, who in their 33 losses sport a whopping 7.67 ERA.

The best in 2023 team ERA in losses, at 4.91? 

Go ahead. Be Brave, take a guess.

SEE THE BALL, SWING, HIT THE BALL

The man of seemingly nothing but walks and Ks, Daniel Vogelbach, is finally swinging these days - with dividends:

7 for 17, 2 HRs, 7 RBIs in last 5. And just 2 walks. 

You swing, you hit. Kid stuff.



17 comments:

Mack Ade said...

Thanks for the very informative post this morning

BTW

Matt Rudick went on the IL yesterday. No explanation

Hey, there is now a .600/1.600 hitter in Syracuse. Details at 11

Tom Brennan said...

Sad to hear about Rudick. Hopefully his stay is short on IL. His average has been shrinking of late, my guess is the on-base machine has been playing hurt

Mack Ade said...

Maybe he's on Vogelbach rest

Tom Brennan said...

That could be...rest, regroup, and fight. Lindor's second child got him a day off, and that (and the relief, no doubt, of a healthy child and mother) have him feeling more charged and focused.

Not everyone can be Cal Ripken. I know I can't. Cal Thomas, maybe.

Mack Ade said...

By the way

How is retirement going?

Mack Ade said...

I retired at 53 after blunt trauma.

Line from one of my songs... "wasn't the same after that faithful day"

By the way

Back on the road

Playing and singing 3 sets at my clubhouse backed by an 83 year old old jazz drummer on snare and brushes.

One a week

First set:

Anymore - Travis Tritt
Greenville - Lucinda Williams
First Cut Is the Deepest -.Sheryl Crow version
New York City - Mack Ade
Louise - Leo Kotke
There Was Jesus - Zach Williams

Tom Brennan said...

Retirement is not bad so far. I have no plans to jump into a submarine, but hopefully lots of above-ground travel (still in discussion phase) and hitting restaurants, and R&R. If I get focused, singing part should follow. I need to join the digital world to better promote that. All a matter of increased focus, which is soon to come.

Interestingly, being over full retirement age, I was unaware that with Social Security, they only reset amounts due to you annually on your birthday. I retired half way thru the year. They did allow 6 months retroactive, which I jumped at, since the other 2 options (starting Social Security going forward in June, or starting it at a slightly higher monthly rate on my next birthday in November) made no sense at all, for reasons I won't amplify here. The funny thing is, once I told Social Security (after convincing my wife of the wisdom of going retro) that I was going to do the 6 month retro, that lump amount was paid to me TWO DAYS LATER via direct deposit. A normally slow government moving at lightning speed. I only post this because a reader may, like me, be unaware of this annual payout rate approach, instead of setting it based on age as of the current month.

Tom Brennan said...

Nice on the music, Mack.

If my wife and I do drive to Florida sometime soon, and I know your singing schedule, maybe if the timing works out, we can stop off, say hi, check out your singing - and perhaps I can even share a song or two.

Mack Ade said...

Got it

You can do set 2

Paul Articulates said...

I share your puzzlement (is that a word?) Tom. These rankings get set by people who are paid to give their opinion. I'm not paid, but my opinion is that they should pay Tom, because he is right much more often than those who rank prospects.

Mack Ade said...

If the season ended last night, and the draft tonight was the MLB not the NBA, THE METS WOULD HAVE THE 8TH PICK IN THE FIRST ROUND

Mack Ade said...

Concert is BYOM

Bring your own Medimusel

Tom Brennan said...

LOL, I have not "excreted" the dental crown I swallowed 5 weeks ago, so I am willing to try anything at this point.

TexasGusCC said...

I just don’t like how this Mets team functions. I have not seen many games, but knowing them allows for a fresh look away from the eyes that may have gotten used to certain things. First, the Mets are still “too veteran”. It bothered me that Vientos didn’t play much when he came up. Shades of Wilmer Flores a few years ago. Second, I do not think the Mets are out of it but I just don’t see the pitching coming around. The bullpen is a whole lot of retreads and the starters don’t have enough octane this year. Megill, Carasco, and Senga has been spotty. Scherzer has basically shit the bed. That’s the problem with this team and I don’t know how it can be fixed.

Woodrow said...

Every cloud… 8th draft pick would be nice

Mack Ade said...

8th pick could get an SP1

Gary Seagren said...

Yesterdays game was dreadful and really at this point pls lose more so we don't have to listen to "we're a quality team and we'll turn it around" yeah right but then again what else are they supposed to say. We need to be a seller at the deadline to anyone to get anything that might help in 24'.