Nate Gilmore did an interesting study regarding what kind of player makes it big... bigger... in the pros.
As he broke out:
My data set consisted of all first round selections (not counting supplemental round picks) from 1995 through 2008. I chose 1995 as a starting point because that was the year after the big strike, and thus a sort of beginning point for modern baseball. I ended in 2008 because that is the last year in which most of the first round draft picks have appeared in the Major Leagues (the Twins’ Aaron Hicks notwithstanding). The data are current as of May 1, 2012, which was the day I compiled all of this information. Players who did not sign and later re-entered the draft (such as J.D. Drew and Aaron Crow) were only counted the second time they were drafted.
| Big League Success Rate | Number Drafted | Number to reach | Percent to Reach |
| College Pitcher | 132 | 95 | 71.97% |
| College Hitter | 90 | 75 | 83.33% |
| High Pitcher | 81 | 45 | 55.56% |
| High Hitter | 109 | 66 | 60.55% |
This supports what I believed for years but was talked out of recently.
Stay with the college dudes for early picks... just start them higher in your chain.
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