1/18/14

Thoughts on John Lannan and Omar Quintanilla



I think the Quintanilla signing ends all speculation that someone other than Ruben Tejada will start opening day at shortstop. Quintanilla has been in this position before and he and Tejada have a good working relationship with each other. I expect ‘Quint’ will play short every day in Vegas and Wilfredo Tovar will fill the middle field UT role in Queens. Either way, there is no way you make a deal like this if you were still planning on signing Stephen Drew, Quintanilla is going to cost the Mets around $600K this time around.

The Lannon move puts an end to any thoughts that Rafael Montero is going to make the rotation out of spring training. It also makes one wonder how much confidence the Mets have in Jenrry Mejia. I’ve been offline all day and have idea how much this deal is for, but I assume it’s a cheap one and it’s a good insurance policy.

Lannan has never had a horrible year, but he also has never had enough team support to have a great one either. A 3.91 ERA in 31 starts in 2008 only warranted him a 9-15 record. 2009: 33-starts, 3.88, 9-13.

He’s also a lefty and relatively still young. The New York native will pitch 2014 as a 29-year old.

I like both deals.

15 comments:

Craig Brown said...

I like it. John Lannan has a chance to be his best offseason pickup...Adjust for park factor, and his career numbers are not that different than Jon Niese

and he's only 29

Quintinilla....meh

I still hope they sign the Cuban kid....Almydes Diaz

TP said...

Mack,
I won't think the Mets are out on Drew until someone else signs him.

Bob said...

Mack

That was my first thought also, that Quintanilla being signed pointed towards Tejada being the starting SS next year.

I also saw in a report somewhere that the current projected Met payroll for next year, even after factoring in the arbitration settlements made and projected to still be made, was about 82-83 million.

What are your thoughts about the difference between this amount and Sandy stating earlier this winter that he was certain next years payroll would be MORE than last years?

Is there something he is still looking to do this winter?
during spring training?
during the season?
maybe just for the heck of it, spread the rest of the money between everyone on the team as a bonus?
or might this be another purposely misleading statement made about the teams finances/player acquisition plans

Mack Ade said...

Bob

I will answer this Monday in my Morning Report

Bob said...

Mack
Thank you

I look forward to reading it.

Reese Kaplan said...

What did they see in Quintanilla last year to make them think he'd be worth having? I know you generally don't ask young players like Tovar sit on the bench, but having him around, young, hungry, eager to prove something, is likely more of a motivator to Tejada than my El Paso compatriot would. Is it because he's left handed? That would only matter if he could do something with the bat other than use it for kindling.

On the Lannan signing, wow! Picking up a yet not-over-the-hill pitcher who is left handed to boot. While I don't like that they would rather take a chance on a career 4.18 pitcher than let Jenrry Mejia or Rafael Montero have a chance, at least I feel better about it than a reclamation project like the OTHER Chris Young. After all, it won't take much to surpass the likes of Aaron Laffey, Collin McHugh or Shaun Marcum, all of whom started games for the Mets last year.

Herb G said...

Reese,

It's his glove. Q is really a superior fielder, and if Ruben is to start at SS, Omar could be a good late inning defensive replacement. I agree with Mack that this looks like the final nail in the Stephen Drew coffin, but unlike Mack, I don't think they will ask a 22 year old Tovar to spend 2014 on the bench. He still needs seasoning and he will get it playing full time in Las Vegas.

Lannan is an excellent signing. It doesn't mean that they have given up on Mejia by any means. But it does mean that, as opposed to Dice-K or Harang, (who I think would almost certainly serve as depth in Vegas) Mejia will have serious competition from Lannan in ST for that 5th rotation spot. If he can pitch as he did from 2007-2011 he would be an outstanding no. 5. (So would Mejia, for that matter, if he pitches like he did last year before his season was unfortunately cut short.)

Herb G said...

Bob-

The Mets payroll is currently at just about $86.5 million, broken down this waay:

David Wright $20M
Curtis Granderson $13M
Bartolo Colon $9M
Chris Young $7.25M
Daniel Murphy $5.7M
Jonathon Niese $5.05M
Bobby Parnell $3.7M
Ike Davis $3.5M
Eric Young Jr. $1.85M
Ruben Tejada $1.1M
Dillon Gee $3.625M
Lucas Duda $1.8M

Subtotal: $75.525M

Plus 13 pre-arbs @ 0.5M each

Total: $82.025

Plus an allowance for minor league players brought up as replacements or for injured players on DL: $4M - $4.5M

Total projected Payroll: $86-$86.5M

That figure is just about equal to last years payroll. Anything more that Sandy does will have to be done from that figure as a base.

Herb G said...

BTW, Duda's number is what MLB Trade Rumors projected for him, so it is basically an estimate. Based on what Duda ($1.9M) and the Mets ($1.35M) submitted, it looks like Duda will wind up wwith less than the projected $1.8M.

Mack Ade said...

well Bob...

Herb coverd most of your question but I'll still have some thoughts on Monday about it

Bob said...

But Herb

Your figures still put the team below last years payroll figure.
How is this explained after Sandy's insistance this year's would be greater?

Anonymous said...

Lannan such a solid low-risk signing imo. Offers competeiton and depth, also flexabilty if Mets get an opportunity to trade a Gee/niese/Colon during season..plus, Citi Field will be good to Lannan.

Quint, i really thought with consistent ab's he would produce more last season, but he didnt. Im still a buyer of Quint, he's just enuf of a gamer, team player, good enuf glove and lefty that fits the Mets, and just think for some reason he can produce. I see Tejada sliding to 2nd base late innings(where he's better def then ss imo) while Quint can play SS and semi platoon vs tough match-ups for Tejada. i dont see Tovar rotting on bench more likely later season promotion if opportunity presents itself.

Mack, you have best Mets blog imo, best natural insight, i like your prospects and depth chart that has immed updates, love it.

Herb G said...

Bob - I hope I am not too late here to reply.

Actually, last years payroll was just about equal to the current figure - $87 million. If you are looking at a higher number it probably includes Jason Bay's money. In any event, the season hasn't started yet and the off season is still a work in progress, so we don't yet know what the opening day payroll will be.

Mack - I thought is was the "Is there something he is still looking to do this winter?" part of Bob's post that you would address, since the payroll is so cut and dried.

Reese - Looking back at my response to you, it might sound as if I like resigning Quintanilla, which I don't. I still am hoping that Sandy pulls the rabbit out of his hat and signs Drew, making Ruben the backup. But if Sandy was going to bring in a weak hitting UT on a minor league deal, I would rather it be Ramon Santiago or Elliot Johnson.

Mack Ade said...

Thank you, Anonymous.

A lot of that thanks needs to go out to the other writers here, especially Christopehr Soto who works so hard on the prospect rankings and updates.

Reese Kaplan said...

Herb G,

I will have a column tomorrow about how I think the roster SHOULD shake out (as opposed to how it will). In it I advocated using Anthony Seratelli, switch hitter with power and great baserunning speed (not to mention a career .372 OBP) as the backup and motivator to Tejada.