Mack’s Morning Report – 5-6-16 – Matt Harvey, Travis d’Arnaud, Blake Swihart


Good morning.

First of all, sorry about yesterday. My wife and I had to travel to Florida (where I am now) to spend the week with my 85-year old mother-in-law. We spent most of the day on I95 through heavy storms (I can speak first hand why St. Lucie was rained out) and it simply was impossible to put together a Morning Report for Thursday.

I also arrived in Florida to an unpleasant surprise… my mother-in-law’s WIFI is down, thus, I can’t get online unless I sit in a McDonalds somewhere in Daytona Beach.

I’ll work it out.

Mike Liguori emails -

I think it's safe to say we all know of the pitchers to be gone that Harvey is the most likely candidate.  Unfortunately, now I'm sure his trade value has decreased a little but I'm sure there's plenty of teams that would want him and can get him back on track.  I do hope that the Mets go the route of trading Harvey instead of letting him walk like they did to Reyes.  Whether it's at the deadline or next winter what do you think Harvey's value is and who realistically would be interested. My team in mind would be the Red Sox because they have hitting but need the pitching to complement.  They're currently 13th out of 15th in the American League in pitching and have some good prospects, in my opinion.  I would love for them to be able to get Yoan Moncada (2B) and/or Andrew Benintendi (OF).  I'd even take a shot at Trey Ball (LHP) and see if a change of scenery will help the highly drafted pitcher.  Let me know your thoughts. Thanks, Mike

          Mack – Thanks Mike for the email.

I go back and forth on Harvey. He’s only 27, I still consider him the SP1 of the staff, and, frankly, I really don’t see a tremendous amount of things wrong with his game this year. He is having mechanics problems and yes, his luck sucks, but many more Mets have to take blame on games like the last one when he pitched. I mean, the final score was 3-0 and doesn’t the Mets supposedly have all these active bats?

Regarding whether his trade value has decreased, I don’t think it has. Trust me, there are plenty of pitching coaches that would love to get their mitts on him.

What would I want for a return?

Well, multiple players to start that definitely included a blue chip catcher… which leads into my next portion of this past.

 Fantasy Pros had their spin on Travis d’Arnaud -

Travis d'Arnaud is unlikely to come off the disabled list when he is eligible to return on May 11th. d'Arnaud, who injured his shoulder, has done nothing but strictly rest and has yet to resume baseball activities.

Fantasy Impact: The Mets are still getting almost no production from their catcher position. d'Arnaud was primed for a breakout season, but has shown a tendency to be consistently on the disabled list and is unable to stay on the field.

Mack – The failures/disappointments of d’Arnaud as both a defensive/offensive threat as well as a healthy player (did I cover everything?) plays right in any discussion to trade one of his battery mates.

If my trade would be with Boston, it would start with catching AAA either prospect,  Blake Swihart or Christian Velasquez.
I think the Mets have tremendous talent right now at all the other positions and have 5-8 prospects that could make an impact either in the 2017 or 2018 season, That being said, I continue to build this new dynasty by targeting my second choice in a Harvey trade for a super-prospect at the A+ or A level… like SP Anderson Espinoza.

I know this doesn’t sound like much of a deal but you guys can fill it in from here…

bgreg98180 asked -

Mack - I was just interested in your thoughts on how long will it be (if at all) before Alderson approaches Cespedes ' s agent to open up contract negotiations to lock Cespedes up for more years?
Is there anything more Cespedes would need to do to inspire Alderson?

          Mack – Hey bgreg –

We first have to assume that Cespedes won’t opt out at the end of this year and leave the Mets. I don’t think he will so let’s assume he will play through the 2018 season.

Juan Lagares will still be under contract and Michael Conforto should be regularly making all-star teams by then. Past that, Wuilmer Becerra should be ready to play regularly in Queens by 2019.

A lot can happen between now and then and I can’t see Alderson trying to work out an extension past 2018 until he’s sure Cespedes comes back next year. Remember, he is kind of a flake and we all know how much Alderson loves flakes.


Ernest Dove said...

I've gone back and forth on this for a couple years now. Bottom line I think I still want Mets to keep all arms on deck and try to win a title in next 3 years (this year counts as one of those).

Tom Brennan said...

McDonalds had a true Big Mack in the house, and they have WIFI to thank :)

I don't want to panic on Harvey. If traded, I want an absolute boatload. A GREAT (i.e., All Star caliber) catcher would work.

Did not see the game last night, but it was another time (in the case of Conforto) where the box score line can be deceiving, apparently he squared 3 balls up last night and had nothing to show for it. Apparently, Grandy had 2 shots also that were caught, before he homered in the 9th.

Becerra had 2 more hits last night and is OVER .400, FOR PETES SAKE. Remember he is in St Lucie, where you start to really get a read on how good a guy is.

Despite Vegas loss, Sewald was stellar in relief again. Forget Never Trump, Sewald is Never Bad. At some point, he will be up here. By contrast, Akeel Morris is off to a pretty poor start in AA.

News Alert: NIMMO HIT HIS FIRST HOMER. Meanwhile....

A .678 slugging % and 27 RBIs in 23 games for Cespedes. I'd say we are getting our $27 MM worth.

Robb said...

Unless he has a catastrophic event/injury happen Cespedes is opting out. So far I cant think of one player who has had an opt out contract (they only started a few years ago) who hasnt opted out.

As for Harvey, the trade value is still quite high, but he isnt getting traded after this year. two years of control especially with what it would cost to replace him is financially ineffective for the mets. maybe after next year if its clear he wants 200mm and isnt worth it otherwise he isnt getting traded.

If you look at the payroll, Alderson really ahs done an excellent job with having expiring contracts and large raises for other players occur at the same time. doesnt hurt that they think certain players can be replaced from the minors.

Eddie Corona said...

Harvey has been my favorite met of this new regime. He is bold and brash and well he is Mr NY...
But I totally agree that the mets need to have a plan for Harvey and maximizing his value (which I think is a trade).
And the mets have to target 1 of 2 positions for the future... Catcher and 3rd Base.
any deal need to fill that component long term along with a high upside Pitcher... the deal the braves received for Miller as a model. Miller cannot even be held in the same sentence as Harvey (for those who forget Harvey should have been the WS MVP if cespedes could catch a fly ball and Duda throw straight).
A catcher or 3B (AA or Higher) , Starter (A+ or higher) and another prospect

I am sure we could survive with THOR, Degrom, Wheeler, Matz and Verritt for the next 3 years...

eraff said...

I waited 5 plus years for my New Toy--- a Winning Mets Team!!! Stop with all the handwringing about vast future plans, and all the talk of trading young guys.... I've waited a long time for those guys!!!!!

Enjoy the team!---watch them play!!!

Anonymous said...

Just to put some more fire on the trade Harvey pile!! LAA are wasting Trouts prime years? How about Harvey-Smith- Lagares- gsellman- for Trout? Gives LAA a starter since they've lost 2 this week, a CF to off set losing Trout and a future 1B! If need be throw in Ramos or Cecchini Edgin and Reed but not Robles! Let me hear what you think Boys

Joss Clayton said...

To be honest, I would stay away from Fantasy Pros. I usually get my news and lineups from https://www.dailylineups.com/, because they are more reliable than Fantasy Pros. FP seems to be a typical sellout website, which once it gains more momentum, doesn't care about what is important anymore.

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