MY TOP 50
REVISITED by Tom Brennan
Last fall, I formulated my top 50
minor league prospects. The list was premature, as some were traded or
picked up by other organizations. Some of the guys are hurt, some are
slated for a short season league and have not played yet in 2016.
That said, now that we are nearly 2 months into
2016, how am I doing on those picks? Better yet, how are THEY doing?
First 25 from 2015 this week, last 25 will
be next week.
MY FALL 2015
COMMENTARY AND RANKING:
-
HOW IS 2016 SHAPING UP?
#1 DILSON HERRERA: turns 22 in 2016…has not done well in 2014 and 2015 in brief
appearances with Mets. Last 2 minor league seasons? WOW. In 862 at
bats in 2014 and 2015, 58 doubles, 7 triples, 24 HRs, 121 RBIs, 167 runs, .327,
75 BBs, and 36 of 52 steals. I speculate he will be the Mets starting 2B
in 2016, and hopefully a future All Star.
-
Little
fella is leading the Mets minors with 8 homers, hovering around .280. 19
XBH in 40 games. Like to see him dominating more with the stick.
But he is essentially ready when needed.
#2 DOMINIC
SMITH: 20 year old 1st round pick
IN 2013 was MVP in the FSL. He turned a miserable 9 for 63 start to his season
in St Lucie into a surge of doubles and a .330 average the rest of the
way. Considered a superior defensive 1B, 2016 should show us the true
Dominic Smith. Future All Star, especially if he hits long balls like Michael
Conforto.
-
In his arrival in AA in 2016,
surrounded by a weak offensive cast, Dom has put up solid but not spectacular #’s
(.275/.311/.413 with 4 homers and 31 RBIs in 43 games). I expect more when he turns 21 in 3 weeks –
so does Ernest Dove.
#3 GAVIN CECCHINI: first rounder in 2012, he broke through offensively in 2015 and
won AA rookie of the year. In 109 games, hit .317/.377/.442, struck out just 55
times. He got better in the late weeks of the season defensively, a ton
of errors prior to that. Mets’ infield situation is crowded, so we’ll see
if he can push his way into a starting job with the Mets by 2017, or be a
strong utility man.
-
On
the DL for 2½ weeks but just back off it. Diagnosed with d'Armand
Frequent Injury Syndrome (dFIS). Needs to stay on field more. But
he has hit .500 over his last 10, so maybe a dominant 22 year old Cecchini is
about to emerge.
#4 - DESMOND LINDSAY: probably too high to list the Mets’ 2015 2nd round
selection, as the 18 year old only got 130+ plate appearances post-draft…he did
well, and got to play 14 games once he was promoted late in the season to
Brooklyn, where he held his own. His tools are thought of very
highly. I’d love to see him challenged and put on a full season roster in
2016.
-
Got hurt in the spring so
he will do a short season league, most likely Brooklyn.
#5
- BRANDON NIMMO: hard to list him at # 5, with just a .354 slugging % in
2015. He gets a lot of hype, but so far the former 2012 first round pick
has under-delivered more often than he has excited. For this first
rounder in 2011 right out of HS, it is time to show us a breakthrough season in
2016 and a whole lot more power. Or trade him.
-
Very
slow AAA start in 2016, but an on base machine of late. How does
getting on base 25 times in his last 10 games sound? .300/.395/.444. Needs to add long ball (just
one so far). But he is starting to look like a first rounder.
#6 MAX WOTELL: I highly ranked Max at #6 because the Mets selected the lefty out
of HS in the 3rd round, indicative of being considered very highly,
and the 18 year old in 2015 pitched little (at least in official
games) but put up eye-catching #’s: (10.2 IP, 2 hits, 9 walks, 16
Ks). Long way to go for Max, but I am kind of hoping we may have another
lefty like Steve Matz in Max.
-
Mad Max should be pepping
for a short season campaign to start soon. So this very high ranking will sit
in limbo for a while and we’ll see if I guessed right.
#7. AMED ROSARIO: perhaps
the best Mets’ minor league SS prospect, reputed to be a future above average
SS with speed and hitting ability. Power should come as the pounds are added
to his slender 19 year old frame. Could have a long and successful year
as a MLB starting SS. As a 20 year old, he should head to AAA.
- Amed started out an offensive house on
fire in St Lucie, and despite a cool recent few weeks, he sits at
.301/.362/.445 after 44 games. Still seems the youth is on track for a possible
starter role at SS for the Mets in 2018. Mets need him to succed to help
keep the future team payroll manageable.
#8 AKEEL MORRIS: awesome in A ball, struggled a bit when sent to AA, but finished
strong. Last 3 years in the minors: 8-4, 30 of 34 save opportunities, 163
innings, 230 Ks, 1.27 ERA. Crazy numbers, resulting from a mid 90s
fastball, terrific change up, and determination. AAA is in his near
future if he is not traded, and a likely major league fully gestated debut some
time in 2016.
- Akeel has still allowed a high rate of walks, and had a rough
start this year, but is 0.71 ERA-wise over his last 10 outings. Probable
mid-season promotion to AAA if he continues his recent strong efforts.
# 9 RAFAEL MONTERO: horrible year injury-wise; I thought he’d be a top major league
pitching entry. If healthy, he deserves to be higher on this list.
If deemed healthy, other teams may make a play for him.
- Three of his last 4 AAA starts have been
quality. He may be closer to the Montero we all thought we had when he
was first emerging. Starting to justify my #9 slot.
#10 DARRELL CECILIANI: like him more than Nimmo – keeps pulling hamstrings, a real
problem. A bit over his head during his sporadic playing time in Queens in
2015. In 70 games in Vegas, he went .345/.398/.581 and stole 16 of
20. DC has a real chance as Mets 5th OF in 2016.
- GONE!! Off to the Blue Jays
he went. Great spring, almost made the team, but the injury prone DC was
sent to AAA by the Jays and injuries have kept him to 17 games. Seems
jinxed. Wish him well.
#11 JEFF MCNEIL: thought he should have been co-MVP of the FSL with Smith.
McNeil played 119 games for St Lucie, .312/.373/.382 with 80 runs scored and 16
of 21 steals. Only 59 Ks. A whole lot to like. Solid D. Add
some pop and his value will be indisputable.
- Hernia surgery has limited
him to 3 games this year. Presumably will return in a few weeks.
#12 PATRICK MAZELKA: this 2015 8th round selection had a superlative season
in Kingsport. He hit a robust .354/.451/.540 in 62 games, and just 1
error catching. Get him into a full season league in 2016. In my
opinion, make that assignment St Lucie and let's see what he's got.
- Super intriguing.
He misses several weeks, but upon his return, in his first 8 games at
Columbia, he is.444/.529/.519. In nearly 300 plate appearances in his
career so far, he is hitting .364. High hopes for this guy, especially
considering the putrid offensive output of the Mets' catchers so far this year.
#13 LUIS GUILLORME: S. Atlantic League MVP. He should have been promoted mid
season, but with a glut of infielders in higher leagues, he played 122 games,
hit .318/.391/.354, and drove in 55 runs, stole 18 of 26 and flashed
leather. Only area of focus would be more extra base hits. Most
likely slated for the FSL, where he will try to win another MVP.
- St Lucie in 2016 has been a wall of resistance for Luis, but he
seems to be adjusting, having reached base 17 times in the last 10 games to
climb to .250. No triples or homers career-wise, and just 33 doubles, in over
1100 at bats are red flags for Guillorme's future as a possible major leaguer.
#14 EUDOR GARCIA: 2014 4th rounder manned 3B for the Gnats and in
105 games, .296/.340/.442. Needs to tamp down a little on the Ks, and
boost his walk rate.Possible candidate to replace David Wright at some point at
the hot corner. 12 errors, needs to tighten that up.
- His drug suspension will be up soon, then
we'll see.
#15 WUILMER BECERRA: Wuilmer’s year
(.290/.342/.423) virtually cloned Eudor Garcia’s for Savannah, except he stole
more (16 of 24). A real possibility for the OF in Queens by late 2017 or
2018. Headed most likely for St Lucie in 2016.
- At #15, ranked too low by me. Despite a
recent cool off, he sits at a tremendous .353 after nearly 40 games in St
Lucie. Only 10 doubles and no homers are perplexing, as one would expect decent
long ball pop from Wuilmer - can't imagine it won't come soon.
#16 DARIO ALVAREZ: in 2014, dominated in A
ball in relief, was lousy this year in April and May 2015, and back to
dominance in 2015 from June on. Great breaking ball got Dario lots of
minor league strikeouts in 2014 and 2015: 176 in 115 innings. Walked a few too
many in 2015. He could be a lead lefty out of the Mets pen in 2016 – or
fail to cut it - time will tell.
- Overrated by me. He had a high strikeout,
but otherwise awful, 2016 and was just dropped from the 40 man roster to make
room for Ty Kelly to be added to it when promoted to the bigs.
# 17 SETH LUGO: RHSP, a 34th rounder in 2011. Pitched well enough in AA
in 2015, got to start 5 games late in the season in AAA, where he went 2-2,
4.00, and struck out 30 in 27 innings. He feels like a Dillon Gee quality
pitcher, when Gee was close to major league ready. Seems he could be a
Logan Verrett equivalent and, as such, a 5th starter/pen type
eventually.
-
Wrong so far. Seth has had a very rough
go of it in 2016. Eight starts, 7.45 ERA, but showing improvement. Can he get
hot and justify my 17th rank? Time will tell.
#18 LUIS MATEO: promising enough to be a
highly ranked Mets pitching prospect heading into 2013. Tommy John effectively
blew away most of 2013, most of 2014, and half of 2015. But Luis got in
17 relief outings in 2015, with a 1.59 ERA, 24 Ks in 22.2 IP, and a 0.79
WHIP. Which tells me he is healthy. If healthy, maybe the old Luis
is back and he makes the Mets pen at some point in 2016.
- Too optimistic of me. Luis
has been mediocre in the Binghamton pen this year, below the trajectory I
expected. 11 runs in 20 innings, just 13 Ks, 1-3. Let's see where
he goes from here.
# 19 CHRISTIAN MONTGOMERY: 11th round 2011 out of HS, had adjustment problems, hardly
pitched before 2015 in Brooklyn. He dazzled early, with 9.2 shutout
innings in relief, fanning 18. Hot and cold in Savannah after being
promoted there, but in his last 4 relief appearances there, the hard throwing
righty went 7.1 innings, allowed 2 hits, and fanned 16. Who does that?
Perhaps this gent can be another Jeurys Familia. Let’s see how he does in
2016.
-
Jekyll and Hyde. Two awful games to start
the season, mostly intriguing since then: 1.59 ERA, 24 Ks in 17 innings over
his last 10 games. But he still is only at Columbia, so he needs to keep
refining and dominating to progress.
#20 MATT REYNOLDS: great season in 2014 for this 2012 2nd rounder, great spring 2015
that had many speculating if he’d make the Mets out of camp, great AAA April,
then…well, not so great. He struggled the rest of 2015, including dealing
with an elbow injury. A .267/.319/.402 season line. He did drive in
65 and score 70 and steal 13 of 17. Bad year that he will rebound
from? One could see him repeating AAA or being traded.
-
Got his first big league
hit after being called up. Had been cold in May pre-call up, and mediocre most
of 2015 in AAA. Not sure if he’ll be more than a fringe big leaguer at
this point.
#21. JACK LEATHERSICH: on the verge of
moving from prospect to post-prospect major leaguer when he got sent back down
as a roster maneuver, then felled by a TJ elbow - just as he seemed
poised to clear the major league hump, a huge setback. Presume he’ll miss much
of 2016.
- GONE!!
I posted my ranking shortly before the
Cubbies got him last fall. Still on the mend.
# 22 ROB GSELLMAN: 13th rounder out of HS in 2011, the RHSP in St Lucie in
2015 went 6-0, 1.76 in 8 starts. On to AA for the 22 year old: he was
solid at 7-7, 3.51, but only 49 Ks in 92 innings there. I do not like to
project relatively low K guys very high, but he had a heck of a year, and
perhaps should be higher on my list. Hoping for a big 2016 for Rob.
- Started
out hot in 2016 in AA, cooled a bit, has gotten no offensive support, so he
sits at 1-3, 2.56 after 8 starts. Part of the learning experience. 37 Ks
in 46 IP are decent, but a bit low.
#23 CHRIS FLEXEN: 14th rounder out of HS in 2012, Flexen pitched really
well until he needed Tommy John surgery in 2014. He pitched some great
games for Savannah in 2015. I am looking forward to seeing a healthy
Flexen move up the charts in 2016.
- Slow 2016 to date in St Lucie. 2-5, 4.47 ERA
in 8 starts. Just 31 Ks in 48 IP. Needs to step it up a lot or I
overrated him.
#
24 PAUL
SEWALD: Mets' 10th round
selection in 2012 went 3-0, 1.75 in AA, 24 of 25 saves, an 0.86 WHIP, and 56 Ks
in 51 IP. For his 4 year career, he is 11-5 in 192 IP, 227 Ks, 0.97 WHIP, 47 of
49 saves. Who could do better? What keeps him from being a Top 5 Mets
prospect is a fastball that tops out at 91. Next stop Vegas, surely the
majors should not be far behind.
- I UNDERRATED HIM! Paul
has hit some adversity of late (a few blown saves), but in his recent 6 game
"bad" stretch, he surrendered 10 hits in 5.2 innings, but also fanned
10. Still has a 2.74 ERA. He is the best reliever in the Mets minors right now,
bar none. I expect he will be a September call up - if the Mets were less
pitching- rich, he'd be up already.
# 25 GABE YNOA: mediocre in 2015, 9-9, 3.90, just 82 Ks in 152 IP (4.8 per 9
innings). Let’s hope he can ramp up the performance and Ks in 2016.
Possible back end rotation or pen guy, unless Ks jump a lot.
-
LOW K GABE has been strong
this year, with just 28 Ks in 57 IP, but is 5-1. 2.50 after 9 AAA starts.
Don't know still how a guy with low K rate succeeds at the much tougher
big league level, but a guy who career-wise is 52-26, 3.15 should figure out a
way to be at least a long arm in a major league pen. Trade bait?
6 comments:
It's good to see the update.
I miss the days you, I, and Soto use to each post our prospect lists
Mack, I will post a mid-season prospects list, maybe in early July once the short season teams get some traction.
I also miss the Chris Soto articles. They were excellent.
I can't believe I am typing that I am starting to get excited about Nimmo and Cecchini. Both have exploded of late. Nimmo has been an on base machine of late. We have a handful of broken on base machines in Queens right now. Give Nimmo a 1B mitt. We may need him soon.
Excited about Mezelka. He should get bumped to PSL sooner than later IMO. He's listed as a C/1B BTW.
Not on your list, but I am interested in seeing Ali Sanchez too (in Brooklyn) shortly.
Rosario taking the step forward this year that all had expected. SandyCo have often been criticized for the players they chose to stock minors, but you have Nimmo, Cecchini, Rosario, and Becerra all hitting over .300, while Herrara and Smith are scuffing a bit, but should end up over .300 when it is all said and done, so it doesn't look like any busts among them. Nimmo has to be looked at differently because he had a longer learning curve to start and has had a number of injuries that interrupted his hot streaks. Wrist derailed him in Savannah when he started hot; a knee injury interrupted him after his scorched the FSL and last year never really got started before running into injuries. I don't predict he will be a star, but I still think he is an everyday CF and will be one of those guys who builds a long career out of raw skills, athleticism and hard work. My ceiling for him is a Hunter Pence with less pop, but could follow the Marco Scutaro type. a player that takes time to reach his potential, but is a very useful player who doesn't get hype because he doesn't have flash.
anon Joe F
Hope you're right about Nimmo, Joe F, except I hope you are wrong about the power. But 25 times on base in 10 games...hey that will work for anybody. He is big enough to have power, let's see if he can become a 40 double, 15 homer. .380 on base guy in the bigs.
Nice write as usual . I follow that catcher Mazelka every night. Big need in the organization. They say he might not be able to stick at Catcher. We'll see. Scouts also said Thor had no curveball
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