Right now the Cubs are sitting atop baseball with the best
record in the game by a long shot at 24-6 as of Monday morning. They are doing it with a combination of
pitching and power from a core of mostly very young ballplayers that look to
ensure them competitiveness for the foreseeable future. They already have a trio of players having
eclipsed 20 RBIs (by contrast the Mets have just one), and they’ve also gotten
more than 20 from their two-headed shortstop combo of Addison Russell and Javier
Baez.
What’s even more impressive is
that they’re doing it without the services of Kyle Schwarber, their
offensive-minded left fielder, who is out for the year with knee surgery after
providing a rookie season in 2015 that helped them secure a pennant with 16 HRs
and 43 RBIs in just 236 ABs.
The Cubbies have another hitter out with injury named
Christian Villanueva who last season in AAA hit 20 HRs and 95 RBIs, though with
a modest .259 average. He’s a third
baseman who has Kris Bryant blocking him right now, but as you can see the
hitters just keep on coming.
Also dwelling in the minors for Chicago is hefty first
baseman Dan Vogelbach who’s hitting .287 for his career and .330 currently for
the 2016 season. Speedster Arismendy
Alcantara has not yet been caught stealing a base and is tied for the team lead
in HRs.
Right now the Cubs have Ben Zobrist and David Ross playing
every day who are 35 and 39 respectively, with Dexter Fowler a last minute
addition at age 30 on a one-year deal that was necessitated by the injury to
Schwarber. He’s off to a fast start,
hitting .340 and earning his $9 million paycheck, but it’s probably 50-50 that
he’d be back if the Cubs think Jorge Soler or Jason Heyward could handle CF
duties.
On the pitching side of the ledger, you start off with
reigning Cy Young Award winner, Jake Arrieta.
After toiling in Baltimore in mediocrity for the first four years of his
career, he found his mojo in Chicago and has been nothing short of amazing
since his first full season in 2014. He’s
reeled off full seasons of 2.53 ERA and 1.77 ERA in back-to-back years and thus
far in 2016 is pitching to a Bob Gibson-like 1.13. At age 30, he’s earning over $10
million. Next year he’s arbitration
eligible. In 2018 he’s eligible to be a
free agent. I’m sure Scott Boras is
drooling over whatever Arrieta gets as a baseline for his client, Matt
Harvey.
After that comes a slew of veteran hurlers. The Achilles heel to Chicago’s eventual
success may indeed be the age of their rotation. John Lackey is 37 and thus far pitching to a
4.02 ERA. He’s around for one more year
at $16 million after this one. Jon
Lester is younger at age 32 and thus far been brilliant. The Cubs have him locked up through 2020 at a
minimum. Jason Hammel has been pretty
mediocre throughout his career but at age 33 he’s turning in his best stretch
of work thus far with a 4-0 start and a 1.85 ERA. The Cubbies hold a $10 million option on him
for next year. The lone sub-30 year old
in the rotation is right hander Kyle Kendricks who is entering his third big
league season and pitching well with a 3.10 ERA. Given the huge investment the Cubs have in
older arms, you can bet they’re banking on a lot from this budget option for
the next few years until his big payday comes due.
In the bullpen the Cubs have a dominant reliever by the name
of Hector Rondon who has simply gotten better and better since making his debut
at age 25 in 2013. That year he posted a
4.76 ERA in middle relief. He followed
that up with taking over closer duties in 2014 and responded with 29 saves, a
4:1 K to BB ratio and a tidy WHIP of just 1.058 while lowering his ERA to
2.42. Last year he reached 30 saves and
lowered the ERA to 1.67 while approaching a 5:1 K to BB ratio. This year he’s even stingier, with a 0.67 ERA
though his K numbers are down a bit. He’s
earning $4.2 million this year, arbitration eligible in 2017 and potentially a
free agent in 2018.
Going forward the Mets are going to have the edge in
pitching but they will need to address some of the offense. Lucas Duda is going into arbitration eligibility
next year and then potentially a free agent.
Neil Walker is a free agent at the end of this season. You have Asdrubal Cabrera for one more
season. Curtis Granderson is likely gone
(or at least no longer a starter) after 2017.
If Yoenis Cespedes continues as he’s started he will likely see if he
can join Miguel Cabrera, Zach Greinke, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer and David
Price in the $30 million per year club.
The Mets’ guaranteed offensive nucleus is Michael Conforto. David Wright is a question mark due to
health. Juan Lagares is still more about
defense than offense. Wilmer Flores is
the opposite. Travis d’Arnaud has yet to
prove he can stay healthy. Kevin
Plawecki hasn’t proven he can hit.
Gavin Cecchini has had one solid season thus far in the minors. Brandon Nimmo hasn’t even put one together
(and has his own health issues). Dilson
Herrera has put up very nice numbers in the minors but has looked overmatched
in two brief trials in the majors. The
rest of Las Vegas is AAAA filler types. In
the lower minors you do have some interesting bats in Wuilmer Becerra and Dom
Smith, but neither are yet showing much in the way of power. Still, solid contact is nothing to sneeze at.
If, as they say, championships are won with pitching, then
the Mets fans can relax. They have that
in abundance now and for the foreseeable future. Still, the offense does look a little shaky
going forward, particularly if some of the eligible free agents do choose to
depart and health maladies continue to afflict some key players.
7 comments:
Yes, the Cubs are the best team in baseball right now, but it's not because of all those first round picks they got early when they sucked so much.
Veteran players that will age ungracefully are the guys carrying the load right now
Cubs are pretty set offensively, and getting unexpectedly excellent pitching.
I only caught a snippet of WOR's pre-game chat yesterday and they were speculating on what it would take for the Mets to get Mike Trout - did you hear any of that? Did not hear it from the start, so I don't know if it was just idle speculation or are the Angels thinking of moving Trout for a king's ransom?
Well, the starting point would be two starting pitchers...think Harvey and Wheeler or something like that. It's a stiff price for sure, but we're talking about Mike Trout. I'd find out what actually was wanted.
Not considering salaries now and down the road, I'd love to see Trout and Cespedes in the same OF.
And Conforto.
And Conforto, Reese. What an outfield that would be.
We could throw in Nimmo to sweeten the pot :)
You have to figure, in any deal for Trout, they're not only going to want two of our aces and a bunch of prospects, they're going to want Conforto. They are going to want and need to replace Trout. They aren't going to settle for Nimmo, who no one really knows if he'll ever pan out. They're going to demand Conforto. Count on it. That is, assuming this is more than just speculation from bored and lazy sportswriters.
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