Q&A - 2010 Draft, Carlos Guzman, 2009 Draft

-

Swimmer asked: With the Mets possibly getting a high draft pick next draft, is there anyone you would like us to take?

Mack: Right now, the Mets sit at around the 10th pick in the draft. There's a good chance this could go higher, but let's assume they wind up with this pick. Let me get this out first... the Mets suck at drafting. I have no idea what the hell they did this past draft. There were so many quality players left hen their picks came around and they basically drafted a bunch of kids no one had on their lists. It's pretty much dead on that C Bryce Harper, RHP Anthony Ranaudo, RHP Matt Harvey, C Yasmani Grandal, SS Christian Colon and OF Bryce Bentz will go before the Mets pick.

My hopes, one of these three will be avaialble:

RHP Brandon Workman - 6-5, 220, Texas - 89-92 fastball – charts out as a future closer

LHP Josh Osich - 6-3, 195, Oregon - fast ball sits at 94-96 – devastating curve – many scouts think he could dominate right now in the majors as a lefty specialist

OF Austin Wilson - Harvard-Westlake HS - most power of anyone in draft – hit two 500+ HRs in Florida showcase - a 6.79 60 and a 35.4 vertical jump

Sbenner asked: Hey Mack, I don't get it... What's keeping the Mets from sending Carlos Guzman (279/338/450 14 hrs) to Binghamton? Carlos has been tearing up the FSL for the past 21 games (31 for 79) batting 392. Not to mention John Duda was recently placed on the DL and outside of Wabick, who lacks long ball power, they don't really have another outfielder who hitting and can hit with the power Guzman has. It's obvious he's going to be there next season and I truly believe he deserves a crack at it now for the remainder on this season. He turned 23 in May and he's the right age to be tested at the double A level.

Important note: Carlos who has been relearning how to hit right handed (didn't bat right handed since he was in little league) is showing much improvement from the right side of the plate lately where he's got 7 hits in his last 17 at bats (412) off southpaws. Carlos will need to work hard in the off season on developing some lift in his right handed swing like he has from the left side. He's showing a great eye and discipline form the right side (actually better than the left side) but he's putting too many balls in play on the ground where it's hard to get anything else but singles.

Mack: Hey. I agree with you. Guzman (if you see or know him, say hello to him for me) definitely deserves a bump up in the last month, but I don't think you're going to see any major moves for the rest of the season. It seems to me that the whole Tony B. thing, coupled with bad performances by most of the minor league teams, have sort of just shut things down. There were some moves today out of Savannah but that was them sending people down to Brooklyn for their playoff.

No, I expect all the teams to finish with the current rosters, minus small moves.

Sorry. Hope I'm wrong.

CJ Hoss wrote last night: I am writing this as the deadline to sign draft picks closes in on us, largely in frustration. While it is possible the Mets will turn things around and pick up a few of these high schoolers, including Matz, this just seems like another dissapointing draft where the Mets do not take advantage of their monetary resources. What makes this worse is seeing small market teams and large market teams shelling out large sums of money to sign guys out of slot.
It feels like every year we all go through this same agony, and yes their farm seems to be improving a lot, but imagine what this team could do it if actually began to spend money more freely. I am not a talent evaluator, and none of us actually know what the Mets short and long terms plans are when it comes to drafting, but this seems so peculiar, and is just another example of the agony of being a Mets fan.

While part of this frustration is related to our season, it just seems that decisions made by this organization do not make sense. I would much rather this team sink money into its farm system than see more Tim Redding or Fernando Tatis signings.

I am sure you hear similar comments all the time, and maybe there is no new light to shine on this situation, but every year we seem to go through this commentary of how the Mets are cheap and do not draft guys that will require a large overslot.

Mack: CJ, thanks for a question I’ve been hoping someone would ask.

There’s no light to shine on how the Mets chose their draft picks. I thought Steve Phillips picked horribly, but Omar & Co. made no sense whatsoever this past draft.

You know I rank the top players each year. What you may not realize is I don’t add one word of comment or opinion in that reporting. Everything written there is what the draft-world has said about these players.

I compile this information from 27 sources, and it becomes quite obvious who are the top talent on each position. I simply assume that if one player has made one prospect list, and another has been written about 57 times, by 21 experts… well, you get the picture.

I even hosted a live draft show at another blog site this year, with three other bloggers and I had all my information in front of me, reading talk about the Mets picks.

And then they were made. And I found I either had very little info on them or none at all.

Look, the first pick you make in a baseball draft isn’t a game in which the main goal is to surprise the other teams with who you picked. You owe the future success of the team that pays you more than that.

Let’s look at the first few picks:

In the 2nd round, the Mets picked LHP Steven Matz – out of 54 top LHPs on my list, he was not ranked

Left on the board, and picked by other teams, between the Matz pick and the Mets next pick (Robbie Shields) were:

1B Ben Paulson – Clemson – I had him as the 5th top 1Bman in the draft -
Ben Paulsen – Clemson… junior… 6-3, 195… great power to opposite field… 2008: hit .310 with 46 runs, 18 doubles, one triple, 13 homers, 49 RBIs, and a .393 on-base percentage in 58 games… All-Cape Cod League selection: 8 HRs, 33 RBIs, 4th in x-base hits... #11 Cape Cod League prospect by Baseball America. Makes great contact… disciplined and patient eye… thru 5/6: .380, 10 HRs, 50 RBIs… 5-29 ProjectProspect’s analysis of top 20 hitters in draft: Clemson's Ben Paulsen hasn't shown the patience or power usually demonstrated by elite college first basemen. With very little value outside of this bat, Paulsen will need to show more of the power he displayed as a sophomore (45.6% XBH in 2008) in order to have a successful big league career.

Paulson is signed...

C/3B Wil Myers – I had him as the 3rd top catcher in the draft -
Wasleyan Christian Academy… also plays 3B… hit .625 through March this season… rated No. 13 best high school player in the country by PG Crosschecker as well as the No. 1 best high school player in the state of North Carolina… rated No. 14 best high school player in the country by Baseball America, as well as the No. 27 best prospect in the nation for the 2009 MLB Draft … named by Baseball America as one of the top 10 hitters at the 2008 World Wood Bat Championships. Committed to Univ. South Carolina… 11 HRs in first 11 games… considered more valuable if he stays behind the plate… From Lincoln Hamilton’s Top 30 draftees… #18 (3rd catcher on list) Athletic versitile defender, strong arm, power potential, great offensive potential at C – age: 18.4… May 25th ProjectProspect’s mock draft: 4) Pittsburgh Pirates - Wil Myers, C Wesleyan Christian Academy (NC) Myers ranked No. 18 in my most recent draft board so going fourth overall would seem like a stretch. However, trying to peg what the Pirates are going to do is always a dicey proposition. More importantly, the Pirates' brass seems to be focusing significant financial resources into the Latin American market this summer. Dominican shortstop Miguel Angel Sano seems likely to command as much money as a top five pick. Myers is very athletic and versatile with a solid approach at the plate and good power potential. He should be able to stay at catcher and profiles as above-average offensively and defensively at the position. If the Pirates can come to a "handshake" below-market deal, Myers could be the pick.
The Royals agreed to sign catcher Wil Myers for $2MM, according to Jim Callis of Baseball America. The bonus is one of the biggest ever for a third round pick and is five times bigger than the bonus MLB recommends for the slot. Some clubs considered Myers a first round talent and some have compared him to former NL MVP Dale Murphy, who also began his career behind the plate


LHP Justin Marks – I had him as the 13th top LHP in the draft –
Louisville… junior… 6-3/195… L/L… 2009 Brooks Wallace Watch List… 2009 Preseason BIG EAST Pitcher of the Year… 2007 PING! Baseball All-American… 2007 BIG EAST Pitcher of the Week (4/30)… 2007 Rivals National Freshman of the Week (4/30)… 2008: named first team All-BIG EAST and second team All-America by PING...invited to compete at the 2008 USA Baseball National Team camp… Posted a 9-2 record with a 2.37 ERA in 91.0 innings, limiting opponents to a .220 average… 5/18: named Big East pitcher of the week: 27 career wins, 282 Ks, 2.82

OaklandClubhouse.com has confirmed that the Oakland A's have signed their second overall pick (third round) from the 2009 draft, left-hander Justin Marks. Marks, who was reported as being signed by Baseball America earlier this week, has been throwing bullpen sessions and should make his game debut in the next few days. A's Minor League Pitching Coordinator Gil Patterson has been impressed with what he has seen from Marks in those early bullpen sessions. Baseball America reported that Marks signed for $375,000.


RHP Ben Tootle - Jacksonville State – 6-1, 185… #19 RHP on my list - named one of the top prospects in the Cape Cod League last summer after hitting triple digits in the closing role. Fastball sits 94-96 touching 98… a bit unorthodox because of his size and his enormous leg kick. His low to mid 80s breaking ball was called the Cape's best by his manager from Falmouth. Considered the 2nd top closing prospect in the draft… Feb 09: named to the Baseball America preseason All-America team… 09: converted to starter… as of 4-15: 3-1, 3.58, thru 8 starts… 45K/35.2 IP… some of the best stuff in the draft… some consider him to be future reliever… From John Sickles: Another hard thrower, Tootle can get up to 99 MPH and this is reflected with 47 strikeouts in 40 innings, a fine ratio in the context of Jacksonville State. On the other hand, his command needs work: he's walked 26 leading to a 4.54 ERA. He's somewhat raw but could go anywhere in the second half of the first round or in the supplemental round…. From Lincoln Hamilton’s Top 30 draftees… #30 (11th RHP on list) - FB works upper-90's in relief with life, mid-90's as starter, plus power curve, battled illness - 21.3 yrs. old… 5/23 from BA: Tootle was the No. 4 prospect in the Cape Cod League last summer, but he has had a difficult spring. He caught a virus that prompted him to lose approximately 15 pounds, and he missed a month, only returning to the mound in May. In his last two starts against Tennessee Tech and Tennessee-Martin, he failed to make it out of the fifth against Tech, tiring in his longest outing since his virus, and got the loss against Tennessee-Martin. Both opposing coaches report that Tootle threw in the 92-94 mph range in those starts, touching 96. In the Cape, he regularly reached 98 mph. Tootle also struggled to knock off some rust from his layoff, with his fastball command coming and going, and against Tennessee-Martin this weekend, he missed the mark with his breaking ball. Scouts still love Tootle's arm strength, athleticism, work ethic and big fastball. He should have a chance to go in the first three rounds on June 9, but he could slip out of those first 110 selections and into the fourth round… 5/28 from MiLB: It was a strange season for Tootle, who was coming off a strong Cape showing as one of the top small school arms in the class. A virus forced him to miss a month and lose some weight. He threw well, though, against Tennessee-Martin in May, just prior to the conference tournament. He took the loss but went seven innings and allowed only two unearned runs on two hits. For the season, he went 3-4 with a 4.56 ERA, though he did strike out 58 in 51 1/3 IP (with 35 walks).

•Ben Tootle, who was drafted by Minnesota, has four shutout appearances to start his professional career.



Then, after the Mets pick Shields, left on the board between that pick and the next Mets pick, Darrell Ceciliani:


LHP Josh Spence – I had him as the 44th top LHP –
Josh Spence – Arizona State – junior… as of 4/6/09: 6-0, 1.17, 72-16 K/BB in 54 IP… velocity not as high as scouts like… fastball maxes out at 86… Tom Glavine type… through 4/23: 8-0, 1.56, 89K, 69 IP… was drafted in 25th round of the 2008 draft by Arizona… thru 5/6: 2.23 in 75.1IP… 5/11: out for the rest of the season with a tendon strain in his pitching arm.



RHP – Anthony Morris – Kansas State… Junior… 6-2, 200, R/R… I have him ranked as the 20th top RHP in draft – 4th year junior… 2008: 14 appearances, 12 starts, 4-4, 6.04… as of 4-7: 8-0, 0.83… April 26: 9 IP, 8 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 5 K… pick up his school-record 10th win of the year…
From John Sickles: Morris is 10-0, 1.27 with a 74/20 K/BB in 78 innings, this year, with 55 hits allowed. All of his components are excellent for the context, and he has one of the livelier arms among college seniors this year, getting his fastball into the low-90s. His breaking ball and changeup are also solid, and his command has been very steady this spring. He doesn't have as much leverage as other pitchers and could be a nice bargain pick in the second round range…
thru 5/6: 1.29 ERA in 83.2IP… won Big-12 conference Pitcher of the Year
Fr. Kstatesports.com: Sophomore (2008): Made 14 appearances, including 12 starts, earning a 4-4 record and a 6.04 ERA... Pitched 53.2 innings, allowing 36 earned runs on 68 hits with 31 strikeouts and 18 walks... Tallied 5.20 strikeouts per game, which ranked third on the team... Picked up his first win of the season after allowing three runs on six hits with six strikeouts in 5.0 innings against Le Moyne on March 9... Was stellar against Creighton on March 26 to earn his second win of the season as he allowed just one run on seven hits in 5.0 innings... Threw 6.0 scoreless innings to earn the win against Central Arkansas on April 1... Tied his season high in strikeouts with six against Wichita State on April 8, but took the loss after allowing four runs on five hits in 4.1 innings... Came back to defeat the Shockers on April 29 as he surrendered just two runs on five hits with three strikeouts in 4.0 innings... Earned his first conference start at Missouri on May 4, helping K-State defeat the Tigers when he allowed two runs on just four hits in 4.0 innings... Started the Big 12 Championship title game... Recorded two of the team’s seven pickoffs on the season... Earned Second Team Academic All-Big 12 honors and was named to the Big 12 Commissioner’s Honor Roll.
Fr. Big12hardball.com: Morris paces the conference in earned run average (1.61), wins (12) and innings pitched (100.2) while ranking second in games started (14) and complete contests (4). Nationally, Morris is second in wins and third in ERA in NCAA rankings released last week. His 12 victories are the 10th best single-season total in Big 12 history. Morris broke KSU’s single-season wins record (10) at Texas on April 24. The right-hander, who allowed just one earned run when he recorded the victory had a career-high 141-pitch outing. The Humble, Texas junior ranks second all-time in Wildcat annals with 20 wins.

RHP Keyvius Sampson – I had him as the 27th top RHP in the draft
Forest HS; Ocala, FL. 6′1, 180… fastball in 90-92 range… has hit 95… excellent mechanics… curve in mid-60s.. committed to FSU… 5/27: BA Draft Tracker: Athletic with three-pitch mix pushing him into first 2 rounds… 5-29 John Sickles: Keyvius Sampson: Florida HS: STRENGTHS: Athleticism, 90-93 MPH fastball, curveball and changeup show potential. WEAKNESSES: Mechanics and command need work, general high school pitcher risk, Florida State commitment could raise price tag, velocity is inconsistent, smallish at 6-1, 180.. PROJECTION: Has been mentioned anywhere from the supplemental round into the third or fourth round, but if he falls too far college will beckon. Fr. http://www.perfectgame.org/ - Keyvius Sampson is a 2009 RHP/OF with a 6'1'', 185 lb. frame from Ocala, FL who attends Forest HS. Sampson is a very athletic RHP. He uses a 3/4 arm angle and a fast arm as his fastball works in the low nineties and topped out at 93 mph in the Metrodome. He stays online in his delivery and locates his fastball very well. He has more than just a fastball as he compliments his low 90's heat with good curveball with bite and also a change up. He projects well with his electric arm and athleticism and it wouldn't be surprising to see Keyvius in the upper 90s some day. He also shows ability at the plate and made solid line drive contact. One of the top 2009 arms. Aflac All American Fr. http://www.pgcrosschecker.com/ - Ocala Forest High School righty Keyvius Sampson came into the spring ranked #30 overall for the 2009 draft by PGCrosschecker.com. Committed to Florida State University, scouts have also been hot on his trail. I drove up to northern Florida to watch Sampson pitch on Friday night. Forest High School is tucked away in a forested area of Ocala, about nine miles off of I-75. A beautiful high school with a stunning baseball/softball complex, it provided an ideal setting to watch one of the nation’s top pitchers. I’d seen Sampson before at various showcase and summer tournaments like our annual WWBA event in Jupiter. But this was my first look at him with his high school team. In the bullpen, it was obvious Sampson has a very quick arm. He’s loose and long in the back with a mild amount of shoulder strain. He doesn’t rock back to generate momentum; his shoulders are level to the ground throughout his delivery and he lands slightly across his body throwing from a high three-quarter slot. Sampson’s body is very athletic looking, but it is not a typical pitcher’s body. The closest major league comparison that I could come up with (and that other scouts agreed on) was Houston Astros ace Roy Oswalt. Aside from being African-American and probably two inches taller (Sampson appears a little over 6-0, 180, while Oswalt is most likely 5-10 despite being listed 6-0), they fill out a uniform much the same. Sampson has a small waist but is well-built in the hips and has sturdy but slender legs. His upper-half is lanky.

Sampson's contract terms were not disclosed, but second-round draftees who have signed thus far in 2009 have received bonuses ranging from a low of $450,000 to a high of $705,000.


RHP Jason Stoffel – I had him as the 23rd top RHP in draft –
Arizona – many consider nation’s top reliever in draft… was named Pitcher of the Week in Pac-10 for Mar. 9 – 15… short memory and seldom gets rattled… would rather start… low-90s fastball… curve is a plus pitch… as of 4/23: 39 Ks, 7 saves in 25.2 IP – down a tick this year… fastball slightly down… 1-1, 4.54 thru 4/23… In Pac-10, 15 runs in 13 innings… hammer curveball has regressed…
From John Sickles: Stoffel has struggled a bit with his command this year. He has a 5.59 ERA with a 41/19 K/BB in 39 innings, 36 hits allowed, collecting eight saves. His K/IP is very good for context, and even his ERA isn't bad given that the overall ERA in Arizona games is about 6.20. At his best, Stoffel buzzes hitters with a mid-90s fastball and a hard curveball, but he hasn't always been at his best this year. This reminds me of what happened to Mariners prospect Josh Fields at the University of Georgia, who had a similar slump in his junior year. Teams still like Stoffel, but where he gets drafted will likely depend on what his bonus demands are.
Fr. Arizonoathletics.com: Arizona 2008: Anchored one of the top bullpens in the country, setting a school record with 13 saves ... Posted a 3.00 ERA and struck out 79 batters in 48 innings pitched while walking only 15 ... Did not allow a run in five postseason appearances and pitched 9.2 scoreless innings over his final seven appearances ...
Fr. Baseballbeginnings.com on 6/1: Drafted out of high school by the New York Yankees, Storen choose the books over the Bronx. The Yankees can put you on that conveyor belt to the big leagues, but they aren’t doing it to show you all the working parts beneath your feet.
Storen, 21, is a draft-eligible sophomore who should be among the first college closers selected. He turned down the Yankees in 2007, wagering that the opportunity to pitch at The Farm while he immersed himself in his product design major was worth more than 34th round money. The Yankees liked Storen so much that he said that their offer was better than the round money, but he had his own designs.
Storen entered Stanford as a starting pitcher whose modest frame and whippy arm allowed him to top out at 92-93 mph. Starting pitching depth necessitated his conversion to closing, where he has hit 97 mph this season. Storen also throws what he describes as a power slurve, which offers a different plane and 8-10 mph of velocity separation. His third pitch, a traditional power slider, makes him a three-pitch man with a starting pedigree. That means you can flip a coin in the future

C Max Stassi – I had him as the 2nd top catcher I the draft -
Yuba City… 5-10, 190… excellent defense… strong arm… power potential… hit three home runs in his first two games this season…18 years old… verbally committed to UCLA… a baseball rat… excellent plus plus defensively… great catch and throw skills… line drive hitter… good speed for a catcher. 2009: As of 4-7: 14-22, 7 doubles, 7 HRs… a baseball rat… rocket arm… from realsportsblooger, who picked Stassi first catcher drafted: The best statistical prep hitter among the catchers, Stassi is probably the most complete catcher of the prep class in this draft. He has a highly advacned approach to the plate and should hit for a quality average and decent power. He’s been fairly durable and is a capable defender with a cannon for an arm. Overall, he’d be a steal here for the Twins, who could not only get great value here, but an eventually successor to Joe Mauer, whom I think will wind up at third base at some point in the future… From Lincoln Hamilton’s Top 30 draftees… #16 (2nd catcher on list) Polished defensive C with strong arm, good approach at plate, power potential age: 18.1… 5/23: Technically, he's just coming off the shelf, but Max Stassi definitely lost some time and maybe a little of his Draft value by missing a chunk of the year behind the plate because of a shoulder issue. He's at or near the top of a pretty deep list of high school catchers in this class, so being able to show his throwing arm is sound will be important to his future… May 25th ProjectProspect’s mock draft: 20) Toronto Blue Jays - Max Stassi, C Yuba City HS (CA) Toronto has a reputation for being very 'Moneyball' inspired, and hence college heavy in the draft. In reality, the Blue Jays are not opposed to taking high profile high schoolers, enter Max Stassi. Since Luke Bailey's injury, Stassi has resumed his spot as the top high school catcher in a draft very deep at that position. An athletic backstop, with a strong arm, smooth line-drive stroke, and good approach at the plate, Stassi has all the makings of a good big leaguer. Since the Jays' current backstop is Rod Barajas and their catcher of the future, JP Arencibia, is yet to post a OBP over .308 since A-ball, catcher is a spot of organizational need. At this point in the draft, need should match up well with value and Stassi could be trading in dollars for Canadian loonies.

The Oakland A's have signed catcher Max Stassi, a fourth-round pick in the Major League Baseball player draft held in June, to a $1.5 million bonus contract

CJ, I could go on and on about this draft, and it will interesting to look back three to four years from now and re-read this posting, but it won’t change the fact that it seems to me that the Mets need a complete overhaul in their drafting direction. I don’t see that happening under the current administration.