Mike Friere - New York Mets Positional Analysis 2012 and Beyond - Part Four

This series of articles will analyze a different position on the Mets’
team each week, with the intent to look at where we are now (2012) and
where we are headed in the future (think 2014 and beyond, otherwise
known as "Sandy’s timetable").
This type of analysis can be helpful, in that it sheds light on specific
roster moves, or a lack thereof, as we progress towards 2014.   A single
move may not make much sense at first, but if you take a step back and
look at the time line as a whole, it becomes much easier to figure out
what Sandy’s true plan is. 
At times, I may also using some basic statistics to make a point, but I
will try to keep it light since that is not everyone’s “thing” so to
speak.   Basically, I am going to look at the top ten players at the
specific position, try to generate an average for the list and compare
it to where we are and where we want to be.   After all, imagine if we
had top ten talent at every position on the field!   I would take that
in a heartbeat, and so should you.
Last week, I took a look at second base and it would appear on the surface (at least on the parent club and the upper levels of the minor league system), that the solution is probably not in the organization.  

Look, I like Daniel Murphy, but is he really the long term answer?   His defense will always be a negative issue, which you simply cannot have on a winning ball club (which is Sandy continues to craft, will be strong up the middle of the diamond defensively).  I look at second base as void, much like catcher.
For this week’s installment, I will continue to move around the infield, this time stopping at third base (properly following the official scorer’s order).
Oh boy, this will be a tough one to write!
In all actuality, it should be a short article.    Sign David Wright to an extension, bat him third and forget about the hot corner for the next six or seven years, right? Instead, as we all found out during the “Reyes saga” last year, plus our favorite teams’ inability to do anything the easy way, I don’t think things will be that simple.   At least there is an option year “safety net” for 2013, which buys
 some time for things to get worked out, one way or the other.

Since the easy solution is keeping David (thereby freeing up some of our better prospects for a trade or two), I am going to look at the alternative, just in case the “sign David to an extension” train goes off the tracks.

What does a top ten third baseman look like?   Looking at 2011 statistics, the top ten third baseman that year would yield the following list of players (using OPS as a guide);  

Cabrera, Beltre, Sandoval, Ramirez, Longoria, Youkilis, Rodriguez, Reynolds, Zimmerman and Freese (Wright was 12th in a bad year for his career statistical norm, FYI).

The average statistical line would be approximately 22 HR/95 RBI/5 SB and an OPS of 0.898 (focusing on players that played in a significant number of games).   For reference, David Wright’s 2012 season to date is 16 HR/75 RBI/12 SB and an OPS of 0.939, in just over two thirds of a season, using plate appearances as a guide.  If you project the counting stats over the course of a full season, David would be on pace to match or surpass the average third baseman’s statistical line from last year.

If we remove David’s name from consideration, the short term answer on the major league roster would be to move Daniel Murphy over to third, from second base.   Supposedly, Murphy is a natural third baseman (whatever that means).  
Murphy plays defense as an afterthought.  While he may be marginally more effective with the glove at third base (he doesn’t have to worry about the pivot), his lack of power would be even more glaring at third base.   In 427 plate appearances as of this writing, he has only hit FOUR homer runs and his OPS is 0.747, which would be below average.  After all, the corners (first base, third base, left field and right field are considered power positions).

What about the rest of the major league roster?    If we were having a conversation, I would have paused for several seconds to make my point.   There are NO other options on the major league roster!   Justin Turner is a nice utility player,
who could play a few games in a pinch, but he is not a long term answer.

What about the upper minor leagues?  In Buffalo and Binghamton (AAA and AA, which realistically could provide a third baseman by 2014), you have the following players;

Zach Lutz (impressive 0.905 OPS), Josh Satin (0.858), Eric Campbell (0.839), Wilmer Flores (0.769) and perhaps Jefry Marte (0.711).

By all accounts, none of the listed players are strong defensively (except for maybe Campbell).  Lutz has always hit well, but he is fragile to say the least.  Satin seems to have run out of chances with the Mets and may not be in the system next year (which would be a shame).  Campbell is a possibility, but will his talent translate to AAA, never mind the Mets, going forward?   Flores and Marte are both solid offensive players (Flores is a better player), but neither are defensive stalwarts.

So, unless there is a mystery player we are unaware of, it seems pretty clear to me.   Break out the checkbook and sign David Wright to an extension, some time between now and the start of the 2013 season.  He is quite clearly one of
the top five third baseman in all of baseball.

There are no other reasonable alternatives on the major league roster and certainly in the upper minor leagues.   If you lock David Wright up for the next six or seven years, it is one less headache for Sandy and the Mets.

DO IT, FRED!