The War Room - Sunday, August 12, 2012
Okay…
I’ve looked at all of
the suggestions that came in last week (there were none…)
as to what this week’s subject should be in “The War Room”. What I decided to
do was to make an attempt today to build next season’s 25-man squad with what’s
in the organization. We can accomplish a couple of things here:
1. We’ll get a feel when the team is beginning
run out of top players
2. We’ll confirm our concerns for specific
positions
3. And we’ll see if the organization is
capable of fielding a 25-man squad experienced enough to be competitive in the
division.
The obvious place to
start here are with the players either under contract or eligible for the Mets
to play the option card. I’m not concerned with the money here. That’s an
entire different issue, though we will address it in a minute when it comes to Mike Pelfrey.
The beginning of next
year’s 25-man squad is:
(revised 9:25am)
1. SP1 – Johan Santana
2. SP2 - RA Dickey
3. SP3 - Matt Harvey
4. SP? - Jon Niese
5. CL - Frank
Francisco
6. LF - Jason Bay
7. SS - Ruben Tejada
8. 3B - David Wright
I want to throw out the first player to
consider here, SP Mike Pelfrey. The Mets have to
decide in December whether they should pay Mike $5mil to come back in 2013. We
all know he was having a great year, but we have no idea when he will heal nor
do we know if he can hit the inside corner with that slider again. Yes, Mike
Harvey has arrived, which sort of leaves the 2013 SP5 to Dillon Gee, but he too is coming back with an injury.
Lastly, there is Chris Young, who make leave on
his own. So, let’s open up the ‘War Room’, welcome everyone back, and…
Well, then again,
this might be the wrong approach for today’s ‘War Room’ discussion. Maybe we
should first fill in the 8-10 obvious names (i.e. SS Ruben
Tejada, SP3 Mike Harvey) that will
definitely be a part of the 2013 25-man New York Mets.
Who’s up?
30 comments:
Well, I think you most definitely have to start with what you have plus some.
I also think you have to be realistic in that Ike Davis will be the starting 1B. He was god awful to start the season, but not so bad since (at least in spurts). And even being as bad as he was, he still will have given you 20+ homers this year. I'm not ready to call it quits on Ike yet, and I'm sure the FO feels the same.
Thole will be on the 2013 team as well, no doubt about that. Will he be the full time starter? I dunno. But he will be there. Edgin will most likely be there, too. I also believe Duda will get his shot again, too. So, I would make this the current list of 2013 NY Mets.
1. SP1 – Johan Santana
2. SP2 - RA Dickey
3. SP? - Jon Niese
4. CL - Frank Francisco
5. LF - Jason Bay
6. 3B - David Wright
7. SS - Ruben Tejada
8. SP3 - Matt Harvey
9. 1B - Ike Davis
10. C - Josh Thole
11. RP - Josh Edgin
12. OF - Lucas Duda
BTW, I wrote the first "anonymous" comment up top there. I really don't want to create yet ANOTHER account to post comments to a website (and I do not wish to link my accounts together). Anyway, for the sake of the conversation I'll just preface my comments with 'Rob said...'
So.
Rob said....
I also gotta believe that Murphy will be the 2B next year, unless a team in need of a 3B trades for him this winter (which I believe is a very real possibility).
okay Rob, no problem with the name...
I'll refer back to your list throughout the day, but for the sake of getting this ball rolling (and the fact only you and I have participated in the process for the first 51 minutes), can we add Ruben Tejada to the list?
I would think at least one of Ronny Cedeno & Justin Turner would survive as well, although I would hate to see them both here next year. My preference would be Cedeno even if he isn't as "clutch".
Yeah, Mack. I agree with you in that I would absolutely add Tejada to the list. He's really shining this year. Impressive not only because of his age, but also because of who he had to replace.
When will Pelfrey be back?
Unless pelfrey signs a small contract with them after they decide to non tender him, he won't be back. Gee, if healthy, will be back; if only to hold Wheelers rotation spot. I really hope they start trading some chips to secure a winning roster in 2014. Murphy, Duda, Gee, valdespine are all expendable to me. They really need a legit power threat that CAN play the outfield as well as a legit starting catcher who can drive in runs. Their whole organization is barren of such players or prospects who can do both without striking out 150 times. Nimmo is too far off.
Can't believe I forgot Gee. He'll probably be there. Parnell, too.
I'll post as Anonymous but it's Kevin and I've commented before.
I do believe the team will look to trade Valdespin during the off season. I get the feeling they've come to the conclusion that he'll never have the plate discipline to succeed at the MLB level and they rather trade him while he still has some value.
Morning Charles, Kevin, Craig
(my apt. complez got hit by lightning last night and my landline and wife are out... I'm driving to a McDoanlds every 90 minutes to keep thi going so please bear with me.
Okay... first off re: Pelfrey... the Mets have to make a decision by December or a $5mil option kicks in. He will not be ready by then, so let's discuss him but table him for now...
Gee: Not so fast here... he too has to heal. I'm sure he'll be back, but it's pretty early in "our" process here to add him, isn't it?
So... let's pick two out of some obvious... Harvey, Edgin, Parnell, Murphy, wow... we run out of obvious pretty quickly, don't we?
I''m adding Harvey and updating... I'll wait on the other three until your votes for two of them
Mack
Morning Kevin:
Just caught your post before signing off until noon.
I pray you are right. He would be perfect in Miami, but his name is going to come up later because the object here is to show and field the best of what this team has NOW in the system, for 2013.
Please join the voting for the next two names.
one thing...
DO NOT MISS MY MONDAY 12 NOON POST
IT WILL TEAR THE COVER OFF THE WILPON BALL
Kevin here.
I feel Kirk will be back in some capacity with the hope that his pitch recognition and plate discipline. Plenty of guys have gone down and come back much better. But they have to upgrade their outfield significantly. It might be time to package one or two of their second level minor league arms, beyond Wheeler, Montero and Fulmer, for a solid every day corner outfielder. Right now, the outfield they're putting out there day after day is a bunch of 5th outfielders.
On a serious note, who here thinks that it's time to REALLY get the rebuild started?
Though I REALLY don't want them to trade Wright or Dickey, they could probably get an insane haul for them this winter. Not only could you stock the farm up really well with high-upside talent, you could probably get very significant almost-major-league ready pieces for the both of them.
If you take sentiment out of it, and the fact that people aren't going to games anyway, it might be foolish not to consider it.
Should this happen, you'd have to take Dickey and Wright off of the list for 2013....
check for posts on updates also...
per Rob, Jack, and a few more, I'm adding Ike, Thole, and Murphy
Mack, I've posted on the follow-up with my thoughts, but here is what I have for my 2013 projections:
1b: Davis
2B: Murphy
SS: Tejada
3B: Wright
LF: Bay/Duda
C: Thole & ???
SP: Santana, Dickey, Niese, Gee, Harvey
RP: Francisco, Rauch, Edgin, Carson, Mejia
Bench: Turner, Baxter
That's it- for now...you can see my other comments for my thoughts behind this...
Back on... going to catch up reading here, go read the update comments, and I'll be back...
(isn't this more fun that watching that team?)
Rob/Anon, you have made an excellent point. If Sandy and company really wanted to make this a full-blown rebuilding process, he'd trade Dickey, coming off either the Cy Young Award or a top 3 finish, and David Wright, one of the top 7 in MVP voting, for a bounty of top prospects to a team that is THISCLOSE to pennant contention in 2013. Each would bring back at LEAST one top, major league-ready prospect and 2-3 additional, top 10 prospects (from the trading org). Combined, their trades could bring a combo of 7-8 top prospects, a real haul for any GM to play with. The Marlins did it- heck, the Phils did it, so why can't WE???
Well, unfortunately, even after the Marlins traded Ramirez, Infante, Sanchez, etc, they STILL have Reyes and Johnson and Stanton on that team, 3 players who remain marketable and at the top of their respective positions. The phils, although over-wrought with high-priced, past-or-nearly-past-their-prime players, still have lots to build around, at least via marketing and ticket sales, in the likes of Hamels, Halliday, Utley, etc.
The Mets without Wright & Dickey would have a still in flux Johan Santana and a bunch of role players and youngsters, with their ability to draw at the gate even more imperiled then it already is. It's ridiculous to think that the Mets have to worry so much about ticket revenue, but that's where the org is at, and relieving themselves of their 2 biggest draws, while possibly right for the rebuilding process, is wrong for the ticket sales and financial health of the organization, which is the saddest part of all of this.
Wright has to retire a met- period. He will own every team record that he doesn't already own, and will hopefully be the next Met (after Piazza) to go into the Hall in the orange and blue, and the first one to go in having ONLY played for the Mets. The value in that is huge for the team, and something to build around for decades to come, from a PR standpoint.
Baseball, being the business that it is, is never about doing only what is good for the future of the team and/or it's long-term health. Magnified in the big apple, the "win now" approach is always going to be a huge part of the team's philosophy, even in the fiscally challenged years that we are going through. Believe me, if Sandy really felt the 2012 could challenge beyond what it did during the first half, he'd have pulled whatever deals he could have and boosted at LEAST the bullpen, if not the outfield. however, if he comes out of the gate and makes at least one big move, like my buddy Jonathan suggests, in signing a Melky Cabrera (although why he'd want to come here is beyond me), then the lack of deals will easily be forgotten or forgiven as the 2013 approaches. IF Sandy were to pull the trigger on a Dickey and/or Wright move, well, you can bet that regardless of who he acquires, the bad PR will bury the team for years to come...and THAT is something the Wilpons can not easily come back from, 8 of their 9 lives already having been expended...
Rob:
You make an EXCELLENT point about trading BOTH Wright and RA...
The Mets cold land 6 top prospects, all currently at either the AA/AAA/MLB level
We'll come back to this after we fill in most of the 25-man with what the team has
Morning, David.
I didn't read your posy before just saying 6 top prospects.
David, you and I have talked many times how much we both wat Wright to end his career as a Met. The difference is your reasoning is as a fan.
I just don't care anymore about a team owned by the Wilpons. I write about them because that's what I chose to do, but I no longer, and will not return to, rooting for a team associated with that family.
Now, regarding David, I want him to be truly happy and he will only find that happiness being outside that clubhouse.
He will return for his option year and (you know I've said this for at least a year) he will then leave BECAUSE HE NO LONGER WANTS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH FRED WILPON ANYMORE).
That's how I see it.
A seltzer bet at O'Duffy's.
Mack, I'll take the bet. however, believe it or not, I wasn't looking at moving/not moving Wright as a fan, but as a GM. The Wilpons, as we both know, are desperate to have SOMETHING/SOMEONE to rally the fans around, not against, and Wright is the only player who they can point to as being a long-term success of recent vintage who has remained a Met through and through. In spite of Wilpon's ignorant comments last year in NY Mag, even HE has come to realize everything that DW stands for, and Sandy, although able to separate himself from sentiment more readily then many other GMs, is going to have to keep at least ONE player to build around and use as a PR focal point. Again, it's not that I WANT him to remain a Met- I do- but for terms of THIS argument, I postulate that he HAS to remain a Met in order to have ticket/merchandise sales. No one is coming- yet - for a team built around Harvey and Wheeler. It will come SOME day, but not TOday, and not in 2013. They need that centerpiece, and the best one they have remains DW...period!!
Kevin here.
Trading Dickey in the off season probably is in their best interest going forward. His trade value, given his 2012 season and 2013 price tag of only $5 million, will never be higher. Whether they trade him or not depends on what Santana and Harvey show them the rest of the way and what Familia. McHugh and Meija show them in a September callup. If they feel more comfortable going forward with those guys, they should trade Dickey and maximize his value.
I mean, I would love Wright to retire as a Met. And I see the value in building around him. I guess the problem is getting those other pieces to actually put around him while he still is in his prime.
But, I'd agree with extending Wright and trading Dickey at his highest possible value. I think that is probably the best way to go at this point.
okay... let's table trades until we fill in a little...
C
C
LHRP
LHRP
RHRP
RHRP
8th inning
CF
RK
utility OF
utility IF
utilit IF... for starts
back at 3pm
Mack- u have my thoughts on the bullpen, but for the bench, the only players I have are:
OF: Hairston
OF: Baxter
INF: Turner
INF/OF: Campbell
So that leaves a platoon catcher to fill out the bench, as well as a starting outfielder. I am going out on a limb, and postulate that we sign Melky Cabrera to play center, at 3 yrs/$13 mil per, with incentives. Surround him with Duda-Bay in left and Hairston-Baxter in right, with Campbell backing at the corners, plus 3b and 1b, Turner at middle inf, and there you go. That's it for me today- out with the family for the day. Feel good, and next Sunday, why not make it "You Be The GM @ The War Room" - suggesting trades and signings??!! Just a thought...
i would never give Melky 39 million!!! even over ten years. He's a hot dog just like valdespine. theres something to be said for character. This guy couldnt make it in his first stint in ny wearing pinstripes and i doubt he'd do it with the amazins. There totally is something to the thought about players being able to prosper in NY. Just look at Jason Bay...one of many players who either did it before or after their years in NY. Roberto Alamar? Carelos Baerga? That's a no go.
if we're settign the 25 man with what they have right now...then Valdesine is playing right...duda/bay are platooning in left, and kirk is manning center. Bring cambell up in a super utility role; same with Satin. Keep Russ Johnson who would be great for both harvey and Wheeler to catch them and act as a mentor. Thole remains the primary catcher because, well, he's all they got unless someone better comes along. Lets not forget that he knows how to catch the worlds best knuckler right now. Parnel is unfortunately the best in house option in the seventh or later innings; sometimes spot closer unless Mejia opr Familia step up come september. I think you have to add them to the pen if we're not going outside of the organization for this "war room" discussion. Murph stays at second unless he's beaten out for the job or hurt in spring training. Beaten out id doubtful at best considering he's turned himself into a .300 hitting doubles machine. Reese Havens sure missed his chance here...
well, the 'War Room' concept today was NOT to go outside the oranization...
base on the few responses (2 people) in the last couple of hours, it sounds like the process is slowing down...
still.. let's put in:
C - Josh Thole
RP - Josh Edgin
and RP Bobby Parnell
Well, Mack, I'd say your exercise worked in that it reaffirms the fact that the Mets are devoid of major league talent at several key positions. Its truly a sad state of affairs. The numbers sunk into Santana and Bay are mind boggling. As is the lack of bats to help at any outfield position. The regression of Nieuwenhuis, Duda, den Decker and Puello is particularly unsettling for the rebuilding program. This was supposed to be the next wave. Now, it still may be the case (way too soon to give up hope) but obviously they all have something to prove in 2013.
Wheeler will replace Santana. Gee will be just as important to the Mets as Harvey and Niese.
Imagine a NY team being priced out of the likes of Cedeno, Hairston.
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