Mack’s Morning Report – 1-8 – Jack Morris, Noah Syndergaard, Leadoff, Mets TV Deal, Bronson Arroyo

Jim Caple -

I think both those obstacles will keep Jack Morris from election this week, which is too bad. I completely understand why some people think Morris wasn't good enough for the Hall and I respect their votes. But I voted for him because this was his last chance and he belongs in.

His critics are too focused on the high ERA (3.90) and WHIP (1.296) to consider other important statistical criteria. And no, I'm not just talking about wins or his 10-inning, 1-0 Game 7 shutout in the 1991 World Series.

In a great piece last month, Tom Verducci pointed out how Morris pitched eight or more innings in more American League games than any pitcher since the DH era began. He was as dependable as any starter of his era. And as driven. Sparky Anderson once told me that when he removed Morris from a game by reaching out for the baseball, Jack would bruise his hand angrily slamming the ball into his palm. He also used to wear a t-shirt with an American flag on the front along with the words: "Try Burning THIS one!"

Mack – This the last time Morris will be on the ballot and he represents an end of an era. Sadly, his making the Hall as the last one might cost Mike Piazza entry, but I can live with that. There will be other votes for Mike down the line.

Do the right thing guys. Vote in the true workhorse of baseball.

 

Jonathan Bernhardt -

Noah Syndergaard was the top pitching prospect in both the Single-A Florida League and Double-A Eastern League in 2013, showing "overpowering fastball velocity and sharp control" while putting up the kind of strikeout numbers that scouts and stat guys alike love to see both levels (Baseball America has a  full scouting report here, though it requires a subscription). Considering how the Mets introduced Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler to the majors in 2012 and 2013 by starting them at Triple-A and calling them up during the season, it's reasonable to think that so long as Syndergaard remains effective and healthy, he'll be in New York just after the All-Star Break -- and perhaps earlier if the Mets are somehow in contention and there's a spot for him in the rotation.

Mack – Is it my imagination, or are the Syndergaard articles being churned out daily these days? Let’s go back a year and a half ago and remind all of us what the scouts said about this kid. It was then they had Wheeler projected ahead of Harvey. It also was then that they had Syndergaard ahead of both of them.

I’m going to assume that Harvey comes back healthy. This is going to be some threesome come 2015.

 

Rob Castellano -

•At .293, Mets leadoff hitters posted the third-worst on-base percentage in all of baseball.

•In comparison to the league average leadoff OPS of .719, Mets leadoff hitters posted a dismal .608 mark, good for 29th in all of baseball.

•Of the four players with more than ten games at the leadoff position last season, Eric Young Jr. performed best at .255/.318/.346.** Yet Young's .664 OPS ranked 25th out of 26 hitters in baseball with at least 65 games batting first; Young ranked 23rd as measured by on-base percentage.

http://www.amazinavenue.com/2014/1/6/5241900/its-a-golden-age-for-leadoff-hitters-except-on-the-mets

                        Mack – This is a good attempt at trying to figure out who the Mets leadoff hitter is going to be. I don’t happen to think they went in the right direction, though it was a very entertaining and factual article.

                        My money is on Ruben Tejada, who I look for a huge rebound in 2014. That’s not to say that Eric Young Jr. won’t bat first when he’s playing. I just don’t see him starting as many times as others think he will.

                        A good read.

 

Adam Rubin –

                        So where do the Mets, who partnered to create SportsNet New York for the 2006 season, stand in the revenue landscape amid this new wave of megadeals? The short answer: It’s complicated. But the Mets’ arrangement appears marginally better than the Phillies’ deal with Comcast, according to DeGaris. One reason it is difficult to analyze is because the Mets own 65 percent of SNY, whereas the Phillies will get a reported 25 percent stake in Philly’s regional Comcast sports channel as part of their deal. So a straight comparison of the rights fees -- $100 million per year for the Phillies, versus an estimated $52 million by SNY to the Mets annually through 2030 -- is not a valid comparison in itself because it leaves out the respective ownership stakes in the TV networks, according to DeGaris. “Though it's difficult to pinpoint exactly, I would say with their new TV deal the Phillies have closed the gap on the Mets in terms of local TV revenue, but still lag a bit behind, primarily because of the differences in ownership stakes of the networks

Mack – I’m not sure, but discussions here could have easily created a situation where Mr. Rubin felt this issue should be better clarified. The important thing is it isn’t the deal, it’s how the team spends, or invests, their money. The Mets deal has been around since 2006 so some of this money went into Bernie Manoff’s hands.

 

Eno Sarris -

For five years now, Bronson Arroyo has been better than his peripherals. Since 2009, only three pitchers have a bigger gap between their fielding independent numbers and their ERA, and those three didn’t come close to pitching as many innings. It’s tempting to say the free agent 36-year-old has figured something out… but what has he figured out, exactly? How has he become more than the sum of his parts? It has to be more than a whimsical leg kick.

Let’s use some basic peripherals to find comparable pitchers. His fastball struggles to break 90 mph, he doesn’t strike many out, and he doesn’t have great worm-burning stuff — but the control has been elite. Here are a few other pitchers that fit that sort of mold. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/trying-to-understand-bronson-arroyo/