WORKING THE PITCHER….OR IS IT THE OTHER WAY AROUND? By Tom Brennan

A few weeks ago, I wrote my first article on Macks Mets, called Statistically Yours.  In it, I made a case that Lucas Duda was working the pitcher too darned much, to his detriment.  Not swinging enough in early hitter’s counts.  As any fan knows, he had been taking a lot of called first strikes, and I had wondered how much correlation there was between a guy who was generally passive on early hitter’s counts and how that player produced overall.  

Since then, surely by happenstance, he seems to be hitting more in early hitters’ counts (where he ends his at bat either on the first pitch or on a 1-0 count), with great success this year in those counts.    

Duda also was noted to be very weak in pitcher’s counts (for my analysis, that means after a count goes to 2-2, which on the surface does not look like a terrible hitter’s count – but it is terrible for most, it appears). 

A hitter with a “work the pitcher” mentality might, due to that cautious approach,  also struggle by being cautious in “late and close” situations (they got stats for everything these days, baby, even that).  Duda struggles mightily in those late and close situations. 

I had contrasted him last time to Miguel Cabrera, who it turned out hit a lot more times than Duda in those early hitter’s counts, with great success, but was also anemic in “after 2-2” and “late and close” counts – not so much as Lucas, but no Babe Ruth in those counts by any means. 

So I decided to expand it – look at other teams’ guys who hit for high average and/or power. And also look at other Met players to see their patterns.  It ain’t science, son, but batting average, and success, seem to hinge a lot on, yes, the hitter’s innate hitting ability (e.g., Tony Gwynn) but also a hitter’s  aggressiveness in early hitter’s counts. 

Duda (thru June 16) had been to the plate 230 times.  When his at bat ends on the first pitch or on 1-0, he is amazing, frankly: 15 for 31 (.484), 3 doubles, 5 HR, and 12 RBIs.  Sweet. The trouble is, that is only about 13% of his at bats.  The other 87%?  Around .200…not so sweet.  

In “late and close game” batting situations?  Just 7 for 46, 3 RBIs.  And once the count hits 2-2? A painful 5 for 52, 2 RBIs, and 28 Ks (to his credit, 15 walks, but that is nonetheless  a very poor count for him). 

OK, comparison time - how are some great hitting non-Mets doing in similar situations? 

 Yasiel Puig?  285 plate appearances, and he is 31 for 67 when his at bats end on 0-0 or 1-0 counts.  That constitutes a robust 24% of his plate appearances.  He is hardly better than Duda in “late and close situations”, and after the count goes to 2-2, Puig stinks too - but Duda has been in "after 2-2" counts 5 more times than Puig in 55 less at bats, showing again that Cautious Lucas works the pitcher into bad counts way too much, to his detriment. 

And Robbie Cano, “dontcha know”?  281 appearances  - he is a “sterling” 28 for 63 (.444) when his at bats end on 0-0 or 1-0 counts, also high at 23% of his plate appearances (vs. Duda’s 13%).  Robbie hits an unproductive .250 in both late and close situations and after the count goes to 2-2, with low RBIs.  But he lets far fewer at bats get to 2-2 than Duda.   Robbie is a better natural hitter, but he also knows the secret - aggressiveness early in counts.

Josh Donaldson, a solid hitter with pop...what about you Josh?  He’s had 285 appearances, and is a Ruthian 21 for 52 (18% of his at bats) with 18 RBIs in 0-0, 1-0 counts…

But Josh is a horrific 12 for 71 after the count goes to 2-2.  That count is very hitter-unfriendly for most to get to, it appears. 

Tulo?  21 for 41 (.512) in 0-0 and 1-0 counts in 265 appearances.  Wow.  Almost as low a frequency (15%) as Duda's 13%, but that is likely because pitchers are far more careful with Tulo, and not because he is “working the pitcher”.  And Tulo's given them reason to fear him.  That can be seen in late and close: where Duda really struggles, Tulo shines, with 12 for 40 and 13 walks.  Tulo is a fairly decent player, dontcha think? 

So my take is if Duda, who excels in 0-0 and 1-0 counts, got far more aggressive in those counts, and upped his “0-0, 1-0” % from 13% to, say, 23% to 25%, his overall offensive #'s would transform for the better - MUCH better.

  But let me stop the Duda hyper-focus for a sec.  Other Mets also are interesting to examine. Let’s get them on the analyst’s examining table.

photo by Mack Ade

David Wright? 312 at bats thru June 16: only 49 at bats ending on 0-0 or 1-0, a low 15% rate.  He also has been very weak in both “late and close” situations (11-58) and after the count goes to 2-2 (11 for 66, a mere 6 walks and a whopping 34 Ks).  Gotta get that early in the at bat ratio up, David.  Early strikes are your friend, late strikes are your enemy. 

Grandy?  272 appearances, and only 31 “0-0, 1-0” at bats, only about 12%.  Way too low, in my humble opinion.  He’s pretty good in late and close game at bats, but he, like David and Lucas, is also terrible after count goes to 2-2 (just 13 for 62, 2 walks, 26 Ks).  Don’t go there, guys.

photo by Mack Ade

Murphy?  The Murph is MUCH BETTER.  In 311 at bats, he is 29 for 77 (.377) in 0-0, 1-0 counts, which are 25% of his at bats!!  No wonder he hits for a much higher average.  Makes my Irish eyes get to smiling while I’m havin’ a bowl of me Lucky Charms. 

My conclusion below would probably not change much if I expanded the analysis to many more MLB players. 

Simply put, I conclude that the Mets' key hitters (other than Murphy) are trying to work the pitchers, but the stats show that, au contraire, it’s our Big 3 who are being worked...badly. Stats don’t lie.   

So…Wright, Grandy, and Duda all should try to get that 0-0 and 1-0 ratio up dramatically.  In other words, swing at almost any decent 0-0, 1-0 pitch in the strike zone that is not on the black.  They'll strike out less (maybe a lot less), get more hits (maybe a lot more), have more extra base hits (yeah, baby) – and their boost in hitting ought to not just boost wins, it should raise fan excitement level.  I’ve always thought naively that it’s fun when sluggers HIT and SLUG.  Maybe it’s just me. 

After all, would you rather see a guy hit .240 with a .330 on base %, or .270 with more power but just a .320 on base %?  I’ll opt for the latter.  Most fans want to see hits, not a bases-on-balls chess match (yawn). 

Hey, maybe these guys on those early pitch counts are already swinging, but just missing or fouling it off and that is why their 0-0, 1-0 %’s are so low.  I’m sure that is happening to some extent, just like with Puig, who swings and misses plenty, But Puig has to be swinging much more in those early counts, and they are simply taking too many early strikes – and suffering for it. 

What do I know?  They hit for a living.  I’m an amateur analyst.  I’m just sayin’…. 

So whaddya think?  Am I nuts?  Fruit Loops?  Let me know.  If the Mets can make no trades, what would you do to goose the offense?

MINOR LEAGUE MUSINGS: On another note, in the Mid-A All Star game this week, the manager of the team our Savannah guys was on showed a whole lotta love to our dynamo Savannah pitching staff – 6 of the 10 pitchers our side used were Savannah pitchers like my favorite fireballer Akeel Morris! 

That is not only impressive – it is probably unprecedented.  Good work, Gnats! 

That’s all for now.  Cheerio!  (Oh, and LET’S GO METS!)