8/23/14

Reese Kaplan - What 40-Man Roster Crunch?

Going into the 2014/2015 off-season the Mets have some roster decisions to make in terms of who may need to be protected for the future. If the club is serious about changing its culture (other than its consistently losing manager) then they need a huge injection of new blood into the organization.  Some will come from the outside and some will bubble up from within the system. Let’s take a look at who’s on the list now who they could kick to the curb in order to create room for players with greater future potential.  Some decisions are rather obvious:

Posn
Player
Bat / Th
C
Taylor Teagarden
R / R
C
Anthony Recker
R / R
C
Travis d'Arnaud
R / R
C
Juan Centeno
L / R
IF
David Wright
R / R
IF
Wilfredo Tovar
R / R
IF
Ruben Tejada
R / R
IF
Josh Satin
R / R
IF
Daniel Murphy
L / R
IF
Wilmer Flores
R / R
IF
Lucas Duda
L / R
IF
Eric Campbell
R / R
OF
Eric Young Jr.
B / R
OF
Cesar Puello
R / R
OF
Kirk Nieuwenhuis
L / R
OF
Juan Lagares
R / R
OF
Curtis Granderson
L / R
OF
Matt den Dekker
L / L
OF
Andrew Brown
R / R
P
Zack Wheeler
L / R
P
Jeff Walters
R / R
P
Carlos Torres
R / R
P
Scott Rice
L / L
P
Bobby Parnell DL
R / R
P
Jon Niese
L / L
P
Rafael Montero
R / R
P
Jenrry Mejia
R / R
P
Steven Matz
R / L
P
Daisuke Matsuzaka DL
R / R
P
Matt Harvey DL
R / R
P
Erik Goeddel
R / R
P
Gonzalez Germen
R / R
P
Dillon Gee
R / R
P
Jeurys Familia
R / R
P
Dana Eveland
L / L
P
Josh Edgin
R / L
P
Jacob deGrom DL
L / R
P
Bartolo Colon
R / R
P
Buddy Carlyle
L / R
P
Vic Black
R / R


As I see it, you can divide the players on the roster into the keep ‘em group and three distinct cut-‘em-loose groups:

The No-Brainers (FAs-to-be, AAAA types, etc.):
  • Taylor Teagarden
  • Anthony Recker
  • Josh Satin
  • Andrew Brown
  • Scott Rice
  • Daisuke Matsuzaka
  • Dana Eveland
  • Buddy Carlyle

 There’s nothing much to say about this group.  While Terry Collins (and by extension Sandy Alderson) love their mediocre veterans, there’s not likely going to be a long line of suitors for any of these people with the exception of Dice-K (who is a FA anyway). 


On the Bubble  (Non-Tender Candidates/Players Whose Prospect Window Has Closed)
  • Ruben Tejada
  • Eric Young, Jr.
  • Cesar Puello
  • Bobby Parnell
  • Erik Goeddel

Some of the calls are tougher than others.  Bobby Parnell, for example, may not be ready to pitch when the year begins yet will command multi-millions that the Wilpons would probably rather not spend.  Ruben Tejada and Eric Young, Jr. are both likely to eclipse the $2 million mark which, for backup players, is a bit much (particularly for how little they deliver).  With Cesar Puello not even getting regular ABs in AAA, he’s likely gone the way of other formerly hot prospects like Cory Vaughn…thanks but don’t let the door hit you on the way out.  Goeddel has gotten worse with each step up in the minors and at 25 isn’t even on the radar for a promotion to Queens.  Why bother anymore? 


Dark Horse Possibilities:
  • Kirk Nieuwenhuis
  • Gonzalez Germen
  • Jeff Walters

Captain Kirk has been tried and has failed on numerous occasions.  It seems that Matt den Dekker has leapfrogged him on the depth chart.  While there’s no harm in keeping him around, there’s no real value in it either.  Gonzalez Germen is kind of the pitching equivalent of Nieuwenhuis.  He had a short run in 2013 where he looked credible but he’s not in the same league as Vic Black, Jenrry Mejia or Jeurys Familia in terms of young stud relievers.  Jeff Walters is not a kid – he’s already 26 – and recovering from TJS while having pitched only 21 innings at the AAA level.  His minor league numbers have been great prior to his injury-riddled stint in Las Vegas, but the possibility of him being the closer of the future seemed to have dimmed considerably.  He would likely be the very last cut if it needed to be made.

By my count that’s potentially sixteen spots open on the 40 man roster after you purge the dead weight.  With the large crop of young talent moving up the ladder there should be no problem finding room to accommodate them. 




6 comments:

Mack Ade said...

I don't see any of the 16 you mentioned doing anything currently to remain on the 40-man

Reese Kaplan said...

Unfortunately those vacancies will likely be filled by the next crop of minor league spring training invitees like we've seen with Aaron Laffey and Bobby Abreu.

Bill Metsiac said...

You still seem to be under the illusion that Terry has any say in whom Alderson signs to a contract or promotes to the ML level, but an illusion is all it is. If the GM signs/promotes, the mgr lives with it.

As for your list, at least 3 of them (Rice, Carlyle, and Evelind) were signed to a 1-year deal, so they'll be FAs at season's end. If Alderson wants to keep them, he can offer MnL deals with(out) ST invites that would keep them in the system but not on the 40.

Parnell is going nowhere---both Alderson and Collins have already said he'll be in the mix for the closer's job as soon as he's healthy, so he'll stay on the 40.

Ruben, if he's not the starter, will be the reserve MIFer. There's no way they'll bring up a true prospect like Reynolds or Herrera if they're not playing every day, and Flores is certainly not the defensive replacement in late innings.

As far as Arbi eligibility is concerned, just because they're eligible doesn't mean they will get to a hearing. If a reasonable contract can be agreed on, they'll stay; if not they'll walk.

Of course Carlyle and Eveland have done well enough that they'll meet the fate of Hawk and Turner---gone before ST to help other teams instead of us.

Reese Kaplan said...

The lineup card is in Terry Collins' hand. He decides whether to play Abreu or Campbell. A lot of this (and previous seasons') losses are squarely on his shoulders.

Why would you pay $2 million to a backup middle infielder like Tejada when you could bring up a good glove/no-hit guy like Tovar who would play for minimum wage?

Steve from Norfolk said...

The lineup card may be in Terry's hand, but Sandy has the power to tell him whose name to write on it. EY may have been Terry's mancrush, but CY was Sandy's.

Tom Brennan said...

To me, too many middle infielder candidates to replace Ruben. I agree that Tovar could slot right in if Reynolds not deemed ready. But he likely will be. Hard to hit .350 the whole year and not be.

Can't argue with your 16 deletes. Too bad Puello has not done better. After an awful winter ball season, that is quite a long stretch of struggling for Cesar.