The Morning Report – December 28 – Troy Tulowitzki, Jon Niese, Noah Syndergaard, Future Five


Good morning.

You should notice a Troy Tulowitzki blurb above. I believe that he will eventually play shortstop for the New York Mets.

I also believe that this kind of deal is impossible to put together until many ducks fall in line. They naturally need all players involved healthy

Lastly, look for this sometime in 2015, most probably around the all-star break. By then, the Mets talented prospects should line up better for Colorado to pick from.
I’ll keep adding and subtracting players in my ‘deal’. . .

In many different ways, Jon Niese[i] is average. By wins above replacement, Niese has pretty much been average for the last five years. He’s put up 9.2 wins, and a perfect ten would be perfectly average. In terms of what he’s done on the field — he’s missed a few games here or there — his 3.72 career FIP is right there with last year’s 3.81 league FIP. It doesn’t stop there. Until last year, Niese had been averaging right around 90.5 mph on his fastball, and the average for a left-handed starter is 90.6. His 7.9% swinging strike rate is right there with the league’s 8.8% average. He’s struck out 18.6% of the batters he’s faced and walked 6.9% — the league’s starters averaged 19.4% and 7.1% last season. He had a 47.7% ground-ball rate last year while the league averaged 44.6%

So let’s say the dude is pretty close to league average. In real-life baseball, that’s obviously an asset. Despite his projections in that department, it’s likely that he’ll be worth a win again, and he’s only due seven million bucks, and so that’s fine. You slot that guy in, you don’t pay him much, you thank him for his services rendered.

Mack – Remember… we’re not talking fantasy baseball here no being average in a real time rotation usually is a good thing… and, at his price, it’s a great one to market him to another team.

          I remember when we loved this guy. 

shortstop Starlin Castro was arrested this morning and could have some involvement in a shooting, Enrique Rojas reports.... wasn't this something we just wrote about a couple of weeks ago?

So now there's two shootings.

Does this guy live in the St. Louis area?

Well, as we all know, character is one of the top five (I hope no one asks me what the other four are...) items needed to make it in the game, and this guy just doesn't have it.

I also always find it interesting that, when you see thug like character, as displayed in the past by guys like Lastings Milledge and Jordany Valdespin, the numbers usually don't come either. Valdy hit .214 for the Marlins last year. Milledge had 39 at bats last year for the Yakult Swallows of the Japanese Central League.

Of course, I always said he preformed that function.

I want to go back to something I said yesterday about Noah Syndergaard. I do not want to trade Syndergaard, but I do feel that it is the purpose of Mack’s Mets and it’s writers to sometimes play both sides of the fence in order to generate an article. I know on a slow day that all I have to do is write one paragraph about Wilmer Flores and that will guarantee me ten comments. 

In the past, I might have told you five times I love him, five times I don’t, five times he should be traded, and five times he should be put on a boat. That’s what us writers do. Make up stuff to create a story or touch a nerve that will hopefully generate a response.

As you all know, I’m doing my top prospect list this month through March. And, I mentioned something yesterday in the comment section that we all need to realize.

Right now, Syndergaard has an SP1 projection.

No other current Mets pitching prospect does.

Stephen Matz and Marcos Molina project to SP2… Robert Whalen three… 

I did seem to throw the baby out with the bath water yesterday and I apologize for that. We’ve chosen to go down this road with a future pitching staff that includes Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, Jacob deGrom, Rafael Montero, Syndergaard, and Matz. 

It’s too late to turn around and build a new plan here.   -

 (Tulo for C Kevin Plawecki, SP Noah Syndergaard, player TBD, player TBD)


Zozo said...

As far as wins goes, I believe Niese should be above average in that department. If he had any type of offense during his tenure he could of averaged about 13 wins a season. I still believe he is a number 2 type pitcher.

Ernest Dove said...

Don't worry Mack, I still laugh when I remember the HUGE responses I got in comments awhile back when I wrote article suggesting that Mets put Harvey in the bullpen to start 2015..........that was fun.

Thomas Brennan said...

Morning, folks. Zozo, when i see the "if only we hit more for the guy" stuff, that's why I wanted fences in even further. Better hiiters in 2015 plus hitter-friendly fences and then it is, Jon, we fixed the offense. Up to you to keep the runs down and win more now.

My guess is the shoter fences, as is, and better hitters will produce 100 more runs for El Metsos this year.

Tulo or not Tulo, that is the qustion. Yes, William Shakespeare is a Mets fan, and looks forward to 2015. Tragedy or comedy, to win, perchance to dream. 2015 will be a blast. I'm on board.

Hobie said...

I don’t see a Tulo deal mid-summer. If he has a Tulowish 3 months, (and say, Wilmer is meh) the price goes through the roof. If he’s struggling, either offensively or his mobility is noticeably diminished, the up-front price may go down, but so does the desire for long-term damaged goods.

If there’s going to be a deal, it’s with an uncertainty discount within the next 2 months. And that includes Noah, Pawlecki, and a few others. I say no.

Zozo said...

If some of you didn't see, Mack posted a link to kickstarter.com yesterday. It's a link that is raising funds to put up 2 billboards near citified that will state something like "Wilpons sell the team". So I am asking you if you do dislike this ownership group please consider donating, but more importantly spread the word to other Mets Fans.
Even though I don't think this would force them to sell, but it could be such an embarrassment to them. I think they deserve to be embarrassed even more, because that's what they have been putting into this team as owners.

Eraff said...

The Mets cannot afford an "all-in" move because they do not have the ability to recover if it doesn't hit gold. Even if a Tulo move delivered success, they'd be badly impacted even if they had a success with the trade.

The Red Sox, or a team like that, has many prospects and an ability to move through the loss of 3-5 prospects----they can participate in Free Agency,and international postings, for instance...the Met's really cannot.

A Tulo Trade would be a big package--- Probably a Useable Pitcher, a useable player and Two Ace Prospects---- The Trade would Probably include Noah or Wheeler, PLawecki, Murphy and two other "Use-ables/Prospects".

That's reality---it's a big price.


Mets Dreams said...

Morning Mack:

I was looking at the dreaded Steamer WAR stats yesterday and comparing the Mets and Nats. If you want to win, you might as well aim for the best and the Nats have close to the best team in the NL right now. We always seem to focus on SS, but looking at WAR for 2015 and Desmond is 2.9, Flores 1.9. The same goes for most of the infield, although Zimmerman is a 3.4 and Duda a 1.7. That being said the corner outfield positions are dreadful compared to the Nats. Harper - 4.3, Werth 3.2; Cuddyer 0.9 and Granderson 1.2. If the Mets are going to stay within budget and improve then something creative needs to happen with the OF. That's why Sandy should call his former employee Billy Beane and see what it would take to get Josh Reddick. He had a down year in 2014, he has 2 more years of arbitration and Billy always likes to trade. He's not going to cost Thor, is left handed. He's also projected to be 3.0 WAR.
My new plan would be to go get Reddick. Try to get Chris Taylor for Gee or Montero, trade Murphy to San Diego for a decent pitching prospect.
So what's it going to cost to get Reddick?

Charles said...

I agree Hobie. This deal only works at with the uncertainty factor they're dealing with now. They'll never pay full price in salary AND prospects later.

Mack Ade said...

The Tulo mention by me is just something to keep his name out there

Mack Ade said...

Look, the Mets just aren't in the same league as the Nats and, as it comes for blockbuster trades, the players for those trades are going to have to be developed within the system.

I think Alderson has done a good job but having Nimmo and Conforto as your top OF prospects behind Grandy and Cuddyermjust won't be enough in this game

Mack Ade said...

Mets Dreams -

Reddicl would probably cost you Niese and a prospect, not much more in this market

Herb G said...

Mack -

I've been saying what Hobie just said for a while now. Coming off the injury (but reasonably certain of a full recovery) the price for Tulo should be at its low right now. The real hang up is whether the Wilpons can afford his salary, or more appropriately whether they would be willing to take it on.

If they are, I would propose a package to them, consisting of Gee, Montero, Nimmo, Reynolds and Ynoa. I really don't want to part with Thor, but if that is the only way to make the deal, I would replace Montero with him, and also replace Nimmo with Puello. I'd like to also get the Rocks to add Rex Brothers, but that might take another good minor prospect, perhaps Jhoan Urena.

Now is the time to make a Tulo deal, so Sandy should stick his neck out and press for something to happen. Ownership has to realize that acquiring a player of Tulo's caliber will not only allow the team to make a huge leap forward into contention in 2015, it will also energize the fan base, create a surge in season ticket sales, and put enough fannies in the seats at Citifield to go a long way to making Tulo's pay for himself.

Reese Kaplan said...

The frustrating part of this team is that they're willing to go into the season with so many question marks and few sure things (on offense). Duda is not a lock to repeat and still struggles against lefties Wright has to show he's recovered physically and psychologically benefits from the shorter fences and having his buddy Cuddyer around. Will Cuddyer break down again? Will Curtis Granderson ever return to 40 or even 30 HR power? Will Travis d'Arnaud build upon last years 2nd trip to the majors success? Will Wilmfer Flores' offense outweigh his defense?

About the only one you can pencil in for high predictability of results -- Daniel Murphy -- is most likely the only one with any trade value (and even that is limited). If they did move him, would that mean Herrera or Reynolds would get bumped up, or would it mean more Tejada?

It's a flawed roster that needs to lose the over 33 dead weight if they are looking to build long term viability.

Mack Ade said...

Herb -

I keep bringing up Tulo for only one reason...

If healthy, he's the best SS in baseball.

The Wilpons can afford him if they reallocate some of their assets and decided to address this matter with an increase payroll in the $120mil range

As a businesman, it doesn't matter how much they are losing here... they can make it up in the real estate market in a week

Mack's Mets © 2012