Tom Brennan – MAJORING
ON THE MINORS - 2013 METS DRAFT - HOW ARE THEY DOING?
To quote from the great Yogi Berra, “It gets
late early out there.” These guys mostly
just finished their 2nd year.
Most have not pitched or hit a whole lot. Mets’’ 1st round pick Dominic
Smith is an exception, having played 177 games in 2 seasons with over 700 plate
appearances – and he won’t even turn 20 til mid-June 2015. Met fans, be
patient!!
On the other hand, a guy like Cameron Griffin
threw very well in 2014, but only has 42 innings in 2 years. Being Mr. Smith’s senior by 4 years (i.e., he’ll
turn 24 next June), he needs to rise fast and not falter to avoid that “well,
look how old he is, though” label. It
does get late early for baseball prospects.
The winnowing process is unrelenting.
On that cheery note, let’s turn a gaze at the
Mets’ 2013 draft.
27 guys signed, most are doing well or
reasonably so, but the guys I see as most promising right now are
Dominic Smith
Casey Meisner
L J Mazzilli
Jared King
Champ Stuart
Jeff McNeil
Luis Guillorme
and Brandon Brosher.
Others who may still surge IMO are Matt Oberste, Colton Plaia, Robert Coles, and
youngsters Andrew Church and Ivan Wilson.
Overall, early indicators are that 2013 was
another very solid Sandy Alderson draft.
Time will tell. Read on, Met
fans:
Name
|
Pos
|
B/T
|
Ht
|
Wt
|
DOB
|
Rd
|
Rating
|
Comments
|
1B
|
L / L
|
6' 0"
|
185
|
06/15/1995
|
1
|
Folks may’ve been disappointed with his power
in 2014, but leaping from low rookie ball to mid A in one season was a big
leap. In his first long season, during
which he turned 19, he had a slow start and finish, but in 3 mid-months, he
hit .305. Big 2015 coming for Smith in
my opinion
|
||
RHP
|
R / R
|
6' 2"
|
190
|
10/07/1994
|
3
|
In his age 19 season, Church showed progress
from mid-July on in K Port. Too early to tell yet for him. We’ll know much better in 2015 & 2016
(when he’ll only be 21).
|
||
CF
|
R / R
|
6' 3"
|
220
|
05/26/1995
|
3-4
|
Ivan led his league in HRs – and strikeouts.
Latter come at a ghastly pace, so that is goal #1 for Wilson in 2015 – drastically
lower the K rate.
|
||
RHP
|
R / R
|
6' 7"
|
190
|
05/22/1995
|
2
|
Very young and tall, finished strong in Bklyn
(62 inn, 3.75, 67 Ks, but just 2 earned runs and 24 K’s in 18 inn over last 3
starts). One to watch.
|
||
2B
|
R / R
|
6' 1"
|
190
|
09/06/1990
|
2
|
He impressed a lot of folks in 2014 He is more
than just Mazz’s kid.
|
||
LF
|
S / L
|
5' 11"
|
200
|
10/12/1991
|
3
|
Played his best ball in St Lucie (49 games,
.287/.343/.392). A superb .318/.362/.477 in season’s last mo.
|
||
CF
|
R / R
|
6' 0"
|
175
|
10/11/1992
|
3
|
.251/.359/.345 career, with 40 of 46 steals in
500 + plate appearances. Mookie Wilson
or EY Jr – which will he turn out to be?
Ks out too much (155 times so far), so cut ‘em down!!
|
||
1B
|
R / R
|
6' 2"
|
220
|
08/09/1991
|
3
|
274/.320/.435 in Gnat Land in 2014.
|
||
RHP
|
R / R
|
6' 1"
|
195
|
05/20/1992
|
4
|
Kind of high on ERA (4.23) & WHIP (1.48)
in 2 yrs. Lots of competition, so he’ll have to step it up a lot.
|
||
CF
|
L / R
|
5' 9"
|
165
|
01/09/1991
|
4
|
41 of 57 steals over 2 seasons, but just
.238/.334/.298. Needs more.
|
||
SS
|
L / R
|
5' 10"
|
170
|
09/27/1994
|
2-3
|
Highly regarded glove, competitive bat.
(.283/.340/.324 in 60 games in 2014.
Briefly played in Savannah!
|
||
RHP
|
R / R
|
6' 0"
|
220
|
04/16/1993
|
TETT
|
Rocky 2013, missed 2014.
|
||
SS
|
L / R
|
6' 1"
|
165
|
04/08/1992
|
2-3
|
Jeff did great in Savannah (.332, 15 steals in
59 games), then slid to .246 in St Lucie after promo in 58 games but
strengthened to .266/.354/.353 in Jul/Aug. Think he’ll excel in 2015.
|
||
RHP
|
R / R
|
6' 6"
|
215
|
10/18/1991
|
4
|
Big dude was fine in Savannah for 10 starts,
5.06 in 10 St Lucie starts. Low K’s in Lucie (30 in 59 innings) portend rough
waters ahead.
|
||
C
|
R / R
|
6' 2"
|
225
|
09/25/1990
|
3-4
|
Decent 2014 in Savannah (84 gm,
.261/.332/.360). 2015 will be telling.
|
||
1B
|
R / R
|
6' 7"
|
265
|
11/25/1991
|
3-4
|
In K Port, 17 doubles in 152 at bats in 2014,
.270/.358/.441 are good #’s. 53 Ks in
47 games is not good.
|
||
RHP
|
R / R
|
5' 10"
|
195
|
07/21/1991
|
TETT
|
Missed 2014 (not sure why) after 14 high
quality relief outings in his lone year in 2013 in Brooklyn.
|
||
RHP
|
R / R
|
6' 2"
|
195
|
12/02/1990
|
Released
|
13 innings in 2 years.
|
||
RHP
|
R / R
|
6' 4"
|
205
|
09/02/1994
|
5
|
Horrible control (38 BB in 21 inns)
|
||
RHP
|
R / R
|
6' 6"
|
210
|
01/29/1991
|
3-4
|
With a name almost as long as he is tall, fine
relief year in Bklyn (31 innings, 2.30, 1.12 WHIP, 27 ks)
|
||
RHP
|
R / R
|
5' 9"
|
160
|
05/06/1993
|
?
|
Truly nice year in the pen for K Port in 2013,
but no 2014. Status unsure
|
||
RHP
|
R / R
|
6' 0"
|
180
|
08/20/1991
|
3-4
|
Similar to Ricky Knapp, great early 2014 in
Savannah (11 of 11 saves, 1.95), followed by a 4.62 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in St
Lucie. 54 Ks in 53 innings, so let’s
see how 2015 goes.
|
||
RHP
|
R / R
|
6' 3"
|
215
|
12/27/1990
|
Retired
|
One year in 2013; few inn, wild.
|
||
RHP
|
R / R
|
6' 3"
|
200
|
06/25/1991
|
3-4
|
Great 2014 (0.96 ERA), but he’s only thrown 42
innings in 2 years, so he needs to up the workload.
|
||
RHP
|
R / R
|
6' 2"
|
195
|
02/21/1994
|
4
|
Improved in 2014 in K Port in 22 inn.
|
||
1B
|
R / R
|
6' 3"
|
225
|
02/17/1995
|
TETT
|
Homers in 4 straight early season games,
followed immediately by a season ending leg injury.
|
||
LHP
|
L / L
|
5' 9"
|
185
|
04/29/1992
|
Released
|
Didn’t do enough in 2014 to continue
|
1 – future impact major leaguer and performing at a high level
2 – future major leaguer – unclear if he will be an impact
player
3 – decent shot at making it to the big enchilada in some
capacity
4 – long shot to make the majors
5 – extremely long shot to make the majors
TETT – too early to tell – dude has not played enough, or is
very young.
So I’ve covered four years of very solid drafts now. (2010 –
2013).
Next up, in the days ahead, my take on the 2014 Mets draft so
far.
6 comments:
It will take at least the end of the 2017 season to really determine the value of this draft
You're right on that, Mack, 2017 for this group will really clarify if it is a plus or minus draft year.
I think the trend for this draft, plus or minus, will start to emerge/clarify by the end of 2015, especially with Dom Smith in mind. On the other hand, perhaps LJ Mazzilli forces his way to AAA or even the Mets in 2015...but he'd be the only one in that sort of a rush, and it is still unclear what his ceiling might be.
As of now, it is definitely TETT (too early to tell), since most of these guys were only up to short season ball.
What Mack said - way too early here - especially with two highschoolers in the first 2 rounds.
Right now the only close to sure bet to make the ML is Mazz junior - he looks to have a solid bat
I agree, Lew. Mazz has really outdone expectations especially in all of 2014, including the Fall League.
Good for him.
Champ Stuart, perhaps Brosher - and to a lesser extent Ivan Wilson - are the wildcards here. If one of those three puts it together, it will significantly improve the value of this class. According to some of the closer observers of the system, Stuart has the best speed in the system, legit power potential, and a real shot. We shall see.
Hi, Adam
It would be nice to see Stuart become a better version of Mookie Wilson. Like a lot of these guys, 2015 will be very revealing for Stuart.
I was so bummed when Brosher had his season-ending leg injury just days after homering in 4 straight games, which you never see from Mets lower minor guys. Hopefully fully healed and ready to pick up where he left off hitting-wise.
I wonder if anyone ever (besides pitchers) in baseball history ever struck out as much as Ivan (99 times in 211 plate appearances), and he did this at lowly Kingsport. Great athleticism, but he needs to drastically improve in the K Dept. Cutting his K rate in half would only make it marginal. He has a MIGHTY LONG way to go. Seems like an extreme long shot to me.
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