12/2/14

Tom Brennan - CALL TO ARMS - VOL. 10 - WHAT ABOUT OUR MINOR LEAGUE BULLPEN GUPPY DUDES?

11 comments










A CALL TO ARMS – VOL. 10 - WHAT ABOUT OUR MINOR LEAGUE BULL PEN GUPPY DUDES? By Tom Brennan


Hey folks, in Volumes 1 through 8 of my CALL TO ARMS series, I noted that the Mets, in my opinion have 34 starting pitchers or prospects of varying degrees of potential.  Give or take a few.


Let me recap my list of 34 starters before I proceed to discuss my top 10 relievers:


THE MAGNIFICENT 7:


7 current big league starters: Colon, Harvey, deGrom, Wheeler, Niese, Gee, and Montero


TWO NIPPING AT THE HEELS:


Two uber-prospects who on many other teams could be in the starting rotation in April 2015: Thor and Matz




 THREE LURKING IN THE SHADOWS:


Three dudes who have made quite the case as to being major league ready, or nearly so: Logan Verrett, Matt Bowman, and Tyler Pill. (Volumes 1, 2, 3 of my series).



THREE MORE LURKING IN THE SHADOWS:


Three pitchers (well, 4, as it was a tossup on the last 2, so you pick 1 of them), who are a step further down from those above: Erik Goeddel, Gabe Ynoa, Darin Gorski and Greg Peavey.  These were covered in Volumes 4, 5 and 6.




SIX WHO ARE DISAPPOINTING OR HURT:


Volume 7 includes 1 guy (Luis Mateo) whose high promise ran head on into Tommy John, and 5 guys who have, to me, been slightly, or more than slightly, disappointing: (Michael Fulmer, Domingo Tapia, Matt Koch, Luis Cessa, and Rainy Lara). 


TWELVE GUPPY STARTERS OF PROMISE:


In Volume 8, I covered 12 more starter guys from mid A Savannah southward.  Marcos Molina, Rob Whelan, Miller Diaz, John Gant, Robert Gsellman, Logan Taylor, Corey Oswalt, Casey Meisner, Martirez Arias, Andrew Church, Blake Taylor and Chris Flexen.


As I noted in Vol. 9, we have more starters than a Peps Boys warehouse!


I then noted that surely some of those starters will falter, and some of those will end up (like Jeurys and Jennry) as pen arms.  But while 34 starters sounds crazy, if you projected this organization’s 7 minor league teams’ records over 162 games, the 7 teams AVERAGED 92-70.  And it was mostly because of the bumper crop of starter arms.


But what about guys already trained as relievers?  Which ones might be useful in 2015 and beyond?


On those close to the majors, covered in Volume 9, I listed 5 (actually 6, with 2 tied for slot # 5:) Cory Mazzoni; Jack Leathersich; Miguel Sokolovich; Akeel Morris; and Cody Satterwhite and Jeff Walters. And of course, I should have included Dario Alvarez in my top 5, but since he had already chugged down a NY Mets cup of coffee in 2014, I will leave the list to others who have not yet pitched from the Citifield pitching mound.


In this Volume # 10, these are my top 5 Guppy Relievers, from the rookie ball teams of Brooklyn, Kingsport and the GCL.  Well, as it turns out, all 5 of my picks are from Brooklyn, which had great relief.  You guys from Kingsport and the GCL?  Maybe some other time!   Here’s my top 5 Fireman Guppies:


1.    Brad Wieck – (1.40, 25.2, 0.90 WHIP, 39 Ks) larger than a guppy at 6’9”, 255, the 23 year old LEFTY fireballer was snapped up in the 7th round in 2014.


2.  Kelly Secrest – (1.82, 24.2, 1.30 WHIP, 30 Ks) – 6’0”, 215 LEFTY, also 23, was nabbed in the 10th round in 2014.


3.   Shane Bay – (1.59, 15 saves, 0.97 WHIP, 22.2, 22 Ks) – a 6’2” 225 LEFTY, he will also be 23 come opening day.  He’s been in system since 2011, but just 30 innings in those 3 years.


4.   Josh Prevost – (1.83, 19.2, 1.17 WHIP, 14 Ks) – 6’8” 225 righty, 5th rounder in 2014, who will be 23 on opening day 2015.


5.   Cameron Griffin – (0.96, 18.2, 0.91 WHIP, 17Ks) – 6’3” 200 righty, 34th rounder in 2013, had quite a stingy year.  He will be 23 on opening day.


All 5 guys had strong, if abbreviated, seasons, but each has a long way to go, baby, as the competition gets tougher and tougher in the ascent.  


Of the 5, I will speculate that Brad Wieck is most likely to make the bigs, but as they say, time will tell.  Watched him on a You Tube clip, and liked what I saw a lot.


This concludes my Call to Arms series.


Have a great day.







11 comments:

Anthony said...

Not sure where to write this so I'll say it here:

I wonder if the Mets were aware of Josh Donaldson's availability and considered trading for him.

Meaning: Donaldson is supposedly the best glove man at 3B in the game and had a huge last two years in terms of WAR.

I know the Mets have their franchise player at 3B, but I think winning teams think outside the box.

Just to be clear, I'm not necessarily advocating for (by way of example) trading something like Wilmer Flores (instead of Brett Lawrie), Amed Rosario (instead of Franklin Barreto), Dillon Gee (instead of Sean Nolin), and Jon Niese (instead of Kendall Graveman). The higher salary of Lawrie is offset by the higher salary of Niese, and the loss of the proven production of Lawrie (not great, but acceptable) is offset by the more proven pitchers of Gee and Niese vis-a-vis Nolin and Graveman. The package seems roughly comparable as I do this, spur of the moment, in 30 seconds off the top of my head (and note that if the A's didn't want Niese's higher salary you can put Montero in this package in place of Niese).

But even though I'm not necessarily advocating FOR THIS SPECIFIC DEAL, what I am saying is that winning teams think outside the box like this: Wright will likely start declining if he hasn't entered an outright decline phase already, and a shift to 1B might be good for his legs. Donaldson is one of, if not the, premier defensive 3B in the game. This move lengthens the lineup and improves the defense as Donaldson fields better than Wright at 3B, and Wright fields better than Duda at 1B. Then you deal Duda for a SS to compete with Matt Reynolds in spring training (Alexei Ramirez?) with the loser riding the pine.

Again, I'm not necessarily saying this particular deal is necessary, but winning teams - and the braintrust of winning teams - think outside the box and make things happen to improve the team. Instead of signing Cuddyer in the fall and then basically saying "Look, we will (a) deal one of Niese, Gee, and Colon for a prospect or LH reliever, and (b) try to trade for a backup-type guy to keep Flores honest at SS" the real stars of management again think outside the box.

I don't particularly like that Donaldson deal for Oakland but I commend Beane on the ability to analyze his team, think outside the box as to ways to improve, and then be so bold as to strike when he sees an opportunity. I feel like Alderson and Co. are basically going to sleepwalk through the remainder of this offseason and just do (a) and (b) as I mentioned above.

Again, not sure I would have (for example) signed Pablo Sandoval, moved Wright to 1B, and dealt Duda, but I would have at least CONSIDERED IT and I hope the Mets are similarly considering ways to improve their club besides saying (for example) "We need to sign or trade for a LH reliever to team with Edgin to balance the 'pen."

Thomas Brennan said...

Anthony posted this to my article, but it pertains more to Mack's morning report, so everybody feel free to weigh in.

Maybe the Donaldson deal that you suggest makes sense, and maybe it is worth shifting guys around. Maybe Wright to SS, Flores to 2B or leave Murph there could work, but i leave Duda at 1B. I think the incredible Hulk awakened there starting in June. He could be on the cusp of Ryan Howard-like hitting. But thinking outside the box is worth doing, and you present interesting stuff.

Mack Ade said...

"Thinking outside the box" in trades like the Donaldson one star with the General Manager

Anonymous said...

David Wright is a third baseman; David Wright has the largest contract with the Mets; Josh Donaldson is a third baseman; There is no room for Josh Donaldson on the Mets

eraff said...

You kind of "missed" 2 guys---in a Pinch, Torres and Mejia can be starters.

Verett is about as close to an MLB ready guys as a Rule 5 exposed pitcher can be---and I hope he gains a shot somewhere, if not here.

Harvey is a TJ Recover---he's a post surgical patient. Nise and Gee have proven they need some weekends off. Matz, Syndy and Monetro each pitched 140 innings or less last year. Colon surprises (Me) with each inning he does pitch.

Pitching depth is fleeting

Anonymous said...

HMMM;
Thinking outside the box.
How about Mets ownership doing what, Florida Marlins are trying to do?
I know its Miami
But how the Mets offering Harvey 6years/41 million?
Just a start, wouldn't mind little deals,like Niese received either.
Wheeler Duda and deGrom Familia d'Arnaud and LAGARES would be a start.
Other teams do it

Thomas Brennan said...

Good point, eraff. Add Mejia and Torres in and the starter surplus is even surplusier (it's my word, no one else can use it)!

This team will sign multi-year deals only when they perceive the have to.

Anthony said...

Not sure I understand what Mack wrote - the comment doesn't make sense to me in terms of English, but quite possibly it is my fault and I am misreading.

I wouldn't agree with what Anonymous wrote and in fact I am arguing the exact opposite: a shift down the defensive spectrum (i.e, to an easier position to field) from 3B to 1B might help preserve his bat for an extra 1-2 years. It is an outside the box thing to consider, but that's what the Mets need to do and just be thinking about LH relievers and consider the offseason a success once they acquire one - hopefully the Mets will be good, but they're no shoo-in for the playoffs or anything like that.

Thomas, I don't think Wright can be move up the defensive spectrum to SS, a much more difficult position to play than 3B. I don't think he has the range to do that and I think it's likely his bat will waste away quicker if that was even considered, which I don't think will ever happen.

Anonymous, I don't think there is any way that the Mets offer Harvey any contract until he proves he is healthy and pitches well for a significant period of time. Obviously if that happens his price for an extension will go way up, but I don't think the Mets will consider offering him a deal before he proves he is healthy and the same pitcher he was before.

Mack Ade said...

Anthony -

I spelled 'start' wrong... wrote 'star'

My bad

Anthony said...

Oops, sorry I didn't figure that out.

That makes sense Mack and yes, I agree.

I just hope that the Mets don't get complacent and say "We're going to be okay - we don't really need to make any more changes to the roster."

The Mets aren't quite that good that they shouldn't be actively, proactively canvassing the market to make upgrades.

Mack Ade said...

Anthony -

You bring up an interesting point that just might be right.

They seem to have chosen the players that they are going to go to the dance with...

Duda, Murphy followed by Herrera, Flores, Wright, d'Arnaud, Cuddyer, Lagares, Granderson...

But exactly what do they have here?

One aging 3B star and a bunch of players that would never cost a team a draft pick if exchanged for?

Mack's Mets © 2012