1/8/15

The Morning Report – 1-8 – Pedro Martinez, Jhoan Urena, Bobby Parnell, Dillon Gee, Buddy Carlyle,



Anthony DiComo   -  @AnthonyDiComo - In his Hall of Fame press conference, Pedro Martinez said that Mets fans "settle for what they have,"Well, I guess we can figure out he won’t be wearing a Mets cap at induction day. It was a true statement, as cold as it was also. It also didn’t have to be said.



B/R[i]

At 6’1” and 200 pounds, Jhoan Urena is physically mature for his age, but the switch-hitter already demonstrates an advanced feel for hitting, with a line-to-line approach and effortless raw power. He’s likely to continue mashing lots of doubles over the next couple years, but his strength and knack for barreling the ball should eventually produce above-average over-the-fence power.

Mack – I’m not trying to be disrespectful to Urena, but if he is currently the 10th prospect in the Mets chain… well, the chain is starting to weaken. The Mets have graduated a lot of their top prospects in the past few years and (IMO) we’re getting down to the secondary level of talent in the system. 

Defensively, the 20-year-old showcases good athleticism for his size with decent defensive chops that inevitably will improve as he gains experience against more advanced competition. Meanwhile, the 20-year-old’s plus arm strength is a clean fit at the position and should help him make up for some of the shortcomings with the glove.



Christopher Soto announced yesterday on Mack’s Mets that Bobby Parnell and Mets avoided arbitration. He re-signed for 1 yr/$3.7M. My guess is because Parnell is participating in the fitness camp in Port St. Lucie that the Mets have a good read on his health progress right now.

An eventual full pen of Parnell, Jenrry Mejia, Jeurys Familia, Carlos Torres, Vic Black, and Josh Edgin should also give the Mets the options to add and subtract Dario Alvarez, Sean Gilmartin, and Rafael Montero into the mix

IMO, there are better pens in the league, but this is a good one.



Mike Puma of the NY Post[ii] speculated that the spring clearance period might be beginning and a market for SP Dillon Gee could emerge:

But the source added that if the Mets can’t find a deal for Dillon Gee, Bartolo Colon or Jon Niese, there is a chance the team would go to spring training with six starters and potentially begin 2015 with one of them in the bullpen. Last season, the Mets had a similar arrangement, using Daisuke Matsuzaka in long relief”

Mack – You would think that a 28-year old who is arb-eligible and scheduled to only make around $5mil in 201 could find a home in this game. He’s done nothing wrong as a Mets starters. It’s just that other, younger, more talented pitched have come along to join in the rotation.
Gee doesn’t become eligible for free agency until 2017 which should be another positive bargaining chip in his pocket.



GOTC[iii]
 Buddy Carlyle has been a little bit of everything throughout his career. He began his career as a starter for the Reds minor league system, and a pretty successful one at that. He flopped as a starter in the bigs when the Padres finally gave him a chance in 1999 and did even worse as a reliever in 2000. The Braves would give him another crack at starting in 2007, when he would make 20 starts. He was 8-7, but his 5.21 ERA was discouraging. He would be a reliever for the rest of his career at that point, making spot starts in a pinch. Until last season’s 1.45 ERA, Carlyle had never posted an ERA below 3.59 in his big league career.

Mack  - Once again, it’s a slow day for Mets news so let’s spend a few more minutes on Carlyle, who should have been invited to came from the get go. This guy did nothing wrong last year and he should at lease be given the opportunity, in minor league camp, to prove he can do it again in 2015.



I saw that Stephen Drew signed with the New York Yankees again which frankly made me very happy if for other reason that there is now one less shortstop we can discuss about possibly replacing Wilmer Flores on opening day this year (yes, this year). You know I wanted Tulo on this team, but, since there just isn’t anyway to pull it off for now, let’s dig in and see what the kid has. Boy, I wish I could find another subject to talk about each morning.



21 comments:

Tom Brennan said...

Pedro channeled Howard Cosell and told it like it is...they have settled for years.

Urena oughta be very good in 2-3 years.

Gee is a whiz, but likely arm #6, so he'll leave earlier than Niese and Colon. But they

Ernest Dove said...

Hard to gauge the mets updated minor league talent this year after all the promotions because their strategy has been acquiring of so much high school talent the past few years.
I still feel like there is power in numbers, and so their top 20 in 2015 and 2016 can look pretty darn strong if some of these recent high school kids succeed in full season leagues.

Tom Brennan said...

I agree, Ernest.

Reese Kaplan said...

I'm at least curious with the job Dana Eveland did last year that he didn't get a similar offer to what was given Buddy Carlyle. After all, they're in quest of lefties for the pen.

Ernest Dove said...

Eveland has already been invited to camp, hasn't he?

Reese Kaplan said...

I did a quick search and only find references to last year's offer. Perhaps his arm/shoulder didn't bounce back?

Anonymous said...

@Ernest

At this point in time.....Eveland has NOT been invited back to any MLB camp.

As Reese eluded to....perhaps his injury is scaring offers off the table. He could also be holding out for an MLB offer.

Mack Ade said...

Ernest-

It takes a good 3-4 years before you know if you drafted the right high school kid.

Unknown said...

RE Drew - I would have loved him on that deal.

He could back up every infield position and would be a great defensive replacement for Flores.

But, doesn't kill us.

RE Carlyle - he didn't doing anything "wrong" last year, but based on his past numbers, I look at last year as a complete outlier and would not expect anything from him this year.

RE Gee - Great story, makes it on moxie and pitchability, but clearly the 6th (maybe 8th) most talented starter on this team - that being said, he has great value as a 4/5 for many, many teams and I think his max value may be at the end of ST when injuries happen or other teams realize their young arms aren't ready.

Unknown said...

Mack -

I don't think the Met's system is hitting a second tier - I think a handful of the younger guys in the back end of the top-30 have the potential to make serious strides this year.

We all wrote Reynolds off as a bust heading into last season, and he was a college player

I have hopes for several of Stephen's Guppies!

Mack Ade said...

Lew -

What I wrote might have sounded a little to harsh.

We're going to have to wait 3-4 years on a lot of these kids. It's just too earlt.

S Finch said...

Ehhh.... The problem with Gee is that at 5 million, he has very little value if a team also has to give any decent pieces in return. He has had some nice stretches, but he just isn't very good.

I think most teams have a young projectable starter in the minors they could throw out there that will have similar-less than stellar numbers.

It would be one thing if he had what makes Bartolo Colon useful-durability, but he has shown no ability to stay healthy.

Who wants an averagish #5 that can't make it through an entire season AND makes 5 mil AND will cost a prospect?

James Preller said...

On Buddy, it could be that he preferred to explore his options before signing a minor league deal with the Mets.

At which point you wish him good luck and say that he's always welcome back with the Mets.

Ernest Dove said...

I still feel that my main may Gee has value to other teams. My litttle two cent opinion is that he is more quality then at least 75% of the SP5s around the league right now, and plenty of SP4s.
Of course, the injury stuff and mystical 90pitch mark can still turn him into a lont relief guy, especially is Mets say screw it and keep all 6 to start April while Parnell is still on the mend.

Mack Ade said...

It's hard for me to believe that the Mets would pay Gee to relieve

S Finch said...

I took a minute to organize all starting pitchers from 2011 (Gee's first year) to 2014 on Fangraphs. 112 pitchers qualify with the minimum innings limit. Dillon Gee is 91.

Year-by-year (by WAR)

2014 – 80 pitchers with a minimum of 140 ip – Gee is #76
2013 – 49 pitchers with a minimum of 190 ip – Gee is #47
2012 – 102 pitchers with a minimum of 100 IP – Gee is #79


Tom Brennan said...

Hey Mr Finch, if I am reading that correctly, my reaction would be, "Gee that's not very good."

Unknown said...

LOL Tom

Although - there are 30 teams

5 starters per = 150 starters.

Even with Gee missing time the last 2 years, he still had more innings than more than half of the starters out there.

If he is 91st in WAR over a 3 year period, he is better than nearly every single team's 5th starter.

He was a 2.2 WAR pitcher in 2013 - and with reduced innings last year he was 0.7 WAR - if he gets back to 180+ innings, he is a 1.0 - 2.0 WAR pitcher.

Going into 2014 - the rough estimate was that a "win" (i.e. 1.0 WAR) was worth about $7 million.

By that logic, Gee is a "bargain" at $5.000 and, if he can replicate his 2013, he is a $9 million bargain.

As far as his injury last year - he pitched three month post-injury without an issue - didn't miss another start.

That combined with his 190+ IP and 32 starts in 2013 give him so-so durability

Now, we won't get an A or even a B+ prospect for him, but we could get an interesting C/C+ lower level player or two.

I have full faith in Sandy's ability to rip off other teams when trading MLB players for minor leaguers.

Unknown said...

LOL _ Gee is a real bargain at $5,000 - I think I meant $5 M!

Anonymous said...

HOT OFF THE NEWS WIRE!!!!

Nationals OF Jayson Werth will miss part of Spring Training and perhaps the start of the regular season due to an AC joint injury.

He will have arthroscopic surgery on it tomorrow and is expected to take 2-3 months to heal.

Tom Brennan said...

Withoyut Jayson, Nats are Werth-less and the Mets, led into battle by MVP cndidate Wilmer Flores, will make everyone in Washington see the Nats for the Obamanation that a DC team truly is. I'd rather root for our Gnats than thoe Nats.