Mack’s Morning Report – 6-29 – Selling Short, Astros Want Jacob, Yanks Needs


Good morning.

Selling Short

So, the wait is over. The Mets have put out the white flag and they will attempt to sell off all the players that have their contracts running out at the end of the season, or other players they really don’t want around next year and hope they could find someone to take on the remainder of their contract. The problem with this is, at the same time, all other 29 clubs know exactly what you are attempting to and, frankly, all they want is one of the precious chips you have left in top end of your system worth keeping.

I suggest some ways of going here –

1.     Start the process by putting together your ‘no trade’ list and email it out to all 29 clubs. Let’s not waste any time or energy discussing a possible deal for Jacob deGrom, Michael Conforto, or Amed Rosario. It simply isn’t going to happen.

2.     Don’t expect another team to trade you one of their top prospects that’s ready for the jump to the majors on opening day 2018. Rebuilding takes at least a year (we don’t need another 5-year plan) and the selling off of guys like Curtis Granderson, Jay Bruce, Addison Reed, and Lucas Duda could get us a really good AA prospect at either third base, centerfield, second base, or even a level 1-3 starter.

3.     Go into the process with only two goals… get younger and shore up the defense. We’re not trying to win the playoffs this year. We’re just trying to make room for quality at-bats for guys like Rosario and Dominic Smith, so we can what we have here.

4.     Don’t worry if you have to deal off an additional player, like a mid-level minor league pitching prospect, to get the right deal done. Let’s remember all those pitchers traded to get us to the playoffs a couple of years ago, do most of us really know what they are doing now? For example… let’s say a team is willing to trade you a AA-top level chip that you can finish the season in Vegas and see if he has what it takes to make it to Queens on opening day 2018. The team wants Duda, but they won’t do the deal unless you throw in one of many mid-level starter prospects from AA and below. I would jump on this deal no matter how one sided it might look on the surface. I lost a first baseman I had no plans for only one of many talented pitchers I had in the pipeline, and the upside is I received a rare third base chip I thought I could never get my hands on.

5.     Shut down as many members of your originally projected rotation, even if it takes phantom trips to the DL under the name ‘arm fatigue’ (nice word for ‘pitching like shit’). We’re not trying to lose games on purpose here, but getting one of the top five picks in the next draft serve two purposes… one, you get one of the five picks. And two, in the second round, you get one of the 31-35th best picks in the draft. And so on… and so on.

Just some suggestions.

Astros Want Jacob

            Okay, so I hear that the Houston Astros are interested in trading for Jacob deGrom.

            Now, this isn’t some burn out that is in the end of his last contract in Queens. No, this is one our young, team controlled ballplayers that just may be the SP1 of the staff going forward.

            There’s no way, right? I mean this is baseball, not a business, right?

            This would be like saying that Amazon would buy Whole Foods, right?

            Well, every player has a price… even deGrom… so we should let John Sickels break out three of the top prospects in the Astros pipeline that we might cut a deal for –

Francis Martes, RHP, Grade B+: Age 21, Dominican right-hander acquired from Marlins in Jarred Cosart trade; 3.30 ERA in 125 innings in Double-A with 131/47 K/BB, just 104 hits; fastball up to 99 and consistently at 94-95; has developed a plus curveball to go with it; change-up still inconsistent but has progressed well enough to project him as a starter; control is fine for a young power arm with this kind of stuff although command within zone still needs a bit of work; needs time in Triple-A but has upside of a number two starter. ETA late 2017.

Colin Moran, 3B, Grade C+: Age 24, hit .259/.329/.368 with 10 homers, 47 walks, 124 strikeouts in 459 at-bats in Triple-A; went 3-for-23 in the majors; has the opposite problem to J.D. Davis: good past reputation as pure hitter bur with questionable power; he tried to add more power in ’16, resulting in a much higher strikeout rate but no boost in performance; defense has turned out to be very good at third base but he has to hit more than this. Perhaps he should forget about power and just concentrate on OBP and batting average. ETA 2017.

Kyle Tucker, OF, Grade B+: Age 19, first round pick in 2015; hit .276/.348/.402 in 373 at-bats in Low-A then .339/.435/.661 in 59 at-bats after moving up to High-A; combined for 32 steals, 50 walks, 81 strikeouts; pure hitter with above-average power and very good strike zone judgment; should provide high OBP with at least solid batting averages and could well be a .300+ hitter; power will depend on how much he fills out 6-4, 190 pound frame; could be something like John Olerud as a hitter; that is, John Olerud with 15 steals a year and good defense in right field, or perhaps Shawn Green if home run power maximizes. ETA: 2019.

And lastly

Yardbarker has this spin on the Yanks needs for first base –

First base reinforcement - First base is one position that has been especially awful in terms of production this season for the Yankees. Greg Bird won the first base job out of spring training and was expected to share platoon duties with Chris Carter throughout the season, however, things have not turned out as planned so far. Greg Bird was injured shortly after the season started, but was minimally productive in his time while healthy. Carter, on the other hand, played 57 games for the team and hit just .204 with eight home runs before being designated for assignment last week. Sure, the Yankees can put their faith in youngsters Bird, and Tyler Austin, but it would not hurt to bring a reliable veteran. Names like Matt Adams, Eric Hosmer, Yonder Alonso, and Lucas Duda have been thrown around the rumor mill as targets for the Yankees’ dilemma at first. The hope is that Austin and Bird can perform to their greatest potential and save the Yankees from making a move, but if necessary, the Yankees have plenty of ammo to strike a deal as the deadline approaches.

            Mack – The Mets need to continue to play Duda every day and showcase him for a possible trade here. 


Thomas Brennan said...

last night's win makes you realize that if Matz, Thor, Lugo and Familia had been healthy, we'd probably be in first place. But reality is reality.

Duda to Yanks? if we are compensated properly, sure.

deGrom to Astros? It would have to be for pure gold, or I am not trading Seaver.

Tebow 3-5 with a 2 run homer and a walk in his debut.

Mack Ade said...

Morning Tom -

What we had hoped Matz would be since the day we drafted him. Oh please let him be real.

Eddie Corona said...

Who wrote this article? Me?
The first points are spot on... a top 5 pick is paramount especially for the the points you listed and the higher draft spending limits...
On degrom I would trade him but a monster deal ( a la Chris sales).... in the astros tucker would be a must but second would be the the pitcher they drafted this year from NC...
And there should be a 3rd prospect (and maybe 4th)

Robb said...

Cant see the optics in trading DeGrom, but again if it were an overwhelming offer (then maybe). We are talking things like a young position mlb player, plus a couple premiere prospects (javier baez , Eloy Jimenez, Dylan Cease probably plus 1 to get it done) i think the Cubs would do that. Maybe LA or the Indians maybe the Blue jays have the type of prospects and win now mode to get it done. Degrom has 3 more years of control after this one.

Mack Ade said...

Eddie/Robb -

I just can't see trading deGrom.

And I can't for other reasons thannwhat he does on the field.

You just can't keep turning over talented and popular players, both on the field and in the clubhouse. You have to pick a handful of players to build a team around.

Just ask Knicks fans what it has been like under Phil Jackson. This kind of player abuse will never send the rest of the team out to play with their heads on straight.

Zozo said...

Trade DeGrom for Bergman, Martes and Tucker or no deal

Charles said...

Trade deGrom? No.

You start a rotation with Thor and deGrom and you've already put yourself into elite company amount major league teams and what they're running out there as their number one and two starters. You just can't trade him. Not when Harvey is pitching like he couldn't get out of the first inning pitching in the GCL league. Not when Gsellman seems to have regressed horribly. Not when Wheeler is such a question mark health wise. And not when Matz goes on the DL if he wakes up with chapped lips!

Sorry, but if they want to contend in 2018, the Mets can't afford to trade deGrom. I'll go further and say that if they want to contend in '18 they can't hope that their other starters will suddenly be healthy or transform to their once dominant self. They'll need to acquire more pitching.

Eddie Corona said...

You say you cant turn over talent but here is the problem with that philosophy... What are the mets... are they a big market team or a small market team... Big market teams are active in the free agent markets for top talent and all other avenues like the international market... (do anyone believe they will be in the picture for machado or harper... Are the mets ever in the discussion with regards to taking on salary?)

And its not about payroll because I dont believe in the figure as much as in spending for TOP talent when it arises... (tyler clippard is not what i consider top talent when we speak about spending regardless of his salary)

Select a group to build around... well i have Thor, Conforto, Rosario, Familia, But we do not have the prospect internally to supplement that and I dont want to fill the roster with Granderson types of 4 years ago...
So where can we maximized return... Only Degrom...

The front office should have parlayed Harvey right after the WS... now we wasted that asset ...
I believe Gsellman the same last year... But we believed they were cheap alternatives...
But it looks more like they were just not as good...

Again I am not saying trade Degrom for anything... But it should not be viewed as untouchable because we have thor... Or heck if you want to trade Thor and keep degrom same thing...
Evaluate your talent and MAXIMIZE their value...

Eddie Corona said...

and to the point... Thor and Degrom may not be enough to contend in 2018 anyway if you cannot rely on the other 3 starters, need a CF, 3B, C, and (unproven SS and 1B) ...

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