Paul Articulates - An extra cookie

The Mets have certainly had their struggles this year with the starting rotation, from the Quintana and Verlander injuries to the inability to keep Max on a regular five day schedule.  But today’s post is going to focus on one player in particular – Carlos Carrasco.

Carrasco was part of the huge trade the Mets made with Cleveland in January 2021 that brought Francisco Lindor to New York.  Although Carlos was not the highlight of the trade, Carrasco was thought to be a big benefit, as he added a very experienced arm to the Mets rotation, bringing 88 career wins, a 3.77 ERA, and a 1.19 WHIP to the team.  This is not SP1 material, but he slotted as a better-than-average back end of the rotation guy.

Since coming to the Mets, Carrasco has not been able to produce those kinds of numbers.  He did have a promising beginning to the 2022 season, posting a 10-4 record before the all-star break, but he then digressed over the second half.  Over the past two full seasons plus the beginning of this year, he has gone 16-14 with a 4.85 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP.  These are not the kind of statistics you would look for in a starting pitcher regardless of slot.  

He is 36 years old, which is typically a time when pitchers are in decline and the Mets knew that when they acquired him.  This year, however has been particularly alarming as he has been prone to very shaky starts.  His first inning ERA this year is 13.50.  That means that the team is almost always coming from behind during his starts.

With the return of Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander to the regular rotation (fingers crossed) and a healthy Kodai Senga and Tylor Megill behind them, the SP5 slot would normally be filled by the best available starter.  David Peterson could have held that role but he has had a very troubling start and is currently in Syracuse trying to rework himself.  

Joey Lucchesi has shown some great promise, Jose Butto has had a few good call-up starts, Jose Quintana is possible for a late July return, and there are some good young arms working their way up through the minor league system.   So it seems that there are options for the Mets in the SP5 role if Cookie can’t regain his form.  However, what are the options for Carlos if he is not starting?

Option 1: Middle relief.  I don’t see this happening, as Carrasco’s biggest problem this year has been his first inning in the game.  If we are behind or trying to hold a slim lead after 5 innings it is not advisable to bring in someone with a 13.50 first-inning ERA to start the sixth.  I don’t believe he has ever held a middle reliever role, so his “get-ready” time may also be in question.

Option 2: Late relief.  Nope.  Same reason.

Option 3: Trade bait.  This is an option for anyone that doesn’t fit a role with the team, but in the case of a pitcher in decline with a $14M salary there is not much market out there.  The Mets would find it very difficult to get much return for a straight-up Carrasco trade, and would undoubtedly eat the rest of his salary if he was an add-on to a bigger trade.

Option 4: DFA.  This would be a cold, hard end to his baseball career, and my compassionate side doesn’t want to see this happen.  However, given the other three options above, this one makes the most sense in the baseball “business”.

So the hard reality is right in front of us.  If Carlos Carrasco cannot improve his performance as a starting pitcher with the Mets, there does not appear to be an alternative role with the team and the front office faces a difficult decision on what to do with an “extra cookie”.