Tom Brennan - Mets’ Top 30 Not Equal to "Productive Top 30"; and Other Thoughts

Undrafted Reliever Grant Hartwig

Some guys not in the Mets Prospect Top 30 deserve to be there. 

For instance:

Lefty reliever Nate Lavender is a reliever drafted in the 14th round in 2021 who threw 7 nice innings in his short debut season.

In 2022, 6-3, 1.70 at a few levels, with 67 Ks in 48 innings. 

In 2023, in AA and in AAA, where he recently got promoted, he had thrown 14 innings through May 14 and fanned 25, with a 1.26 ERA.

So, in his career, he is 6-3, 1.57, 11 for 11 in saves, and 104 Ks in 69 innings.

But not in the top 30. Hmmm.

Righty reliever Grant Hartwig went undrafted.  So they sign him as a reliever in 2021 and he had a 3.89 ERA in 12 innings.  OK, I guess.  

"Don't bore me, dazzle me," I thought.  

He did.

In 2022, he pitched in 4 levels, posted a Verlander-like 1.75 ERA, and fanned 83 in 56 innings. Undrafted, remember.

This year in Syracuse, in his first 13 innings, he had a 1.35 ERA, and then a few rough outings since.  It happens - part of the learning.  In his young career, the 6'5" righty is 19 for 22 in saves and 7-5.

Ranked?  Yeah, but barely at # 29.  

What's a guy gotta do to not be disrepected?

Lastly, a guy I wrote about yesterday, as follows, who is not "Top 30" but should be:

JOSE PEROZA: In his first 75 AA career at bats, Jose (.307) is thundering with with 7 doubles, 5 HRs, and 20 RBIs in 20 games.  He is 4th in the Eastern League in RBIs, despite the 3 guys ahead of him having averaged 10 more games played.  Quite the debut for a hitter who still hasn't turned 23. 

And a .600 AA slug % after another 2 hit game on Sunday.  Did I mention he has a fine glove at 2nd and 3rd, too?  He is turning doubters into shouters.

Now on the flip side, the Top 30 has several pitchers who are ranked but just aren't productive (stats from several days ago).

# 10 Calvin Ziegler - in his career, 0-6, 4.44 and has not pitched this year. Talented, perhaps, but wild (35 walks in 46 innings).

# 12 Joel Diaz: 3-2, 5.86 in 2022, allowing 62 hits in 55 innings, and has not pitched in 2023. 

# 19 Junior Santos - struggling in AA this year, and in his several year career, he is 15-28, 4.46 and more than a hit per inning (349 in 327).  And his ERA after his rookie season is around 5.00.

# 23 Matt Allan - surgeries have limited him to 10 career innings since 2019, and he won't pitch in 2023.  His unlimited potential is, well, limited in production, one could say.

#24 Luis Rodriguez - the lefty was 0-2, 5.11 - and he did that in 2021, and has not pitched in 2022 or 2023.

#25 Javier Atencio had a 9.98 ERA in St Lucie at the time of this writing, with 19 hits and 15 walks in 15 innings, and just 14 Ks despite facing all those batters.  Compare to Lavender and Hartwig, please.

# 30 Christian Scott - got tattooed - not the ink kind of tattoo, ether - in Arizona last fall, and has a workman-like 5 innings (and 5 earned runs) in 2023.

Me?  I may be retired, but I have a work ethic.  In fact, Mack tells me that someday I may be in his Top 30, which keeps me going.

Anyway, I like to rank guys who flat-out perform like Lavender and Hartwig and Peroza, not just in my top 30, but in my top 15, rather than (as the Mets folks did) ranking one at 29 and the others not at all.  

And me?  I'd remove the walking wounded and highly ineffective pitchers who are in the top 30.  Give someone else some sunshine.  

Make room for the Producers, Nathan Lane suggests. 

And he is right.  Produce, or reduce.

P.S. Mets Blues…

As I write this, several days ahead of publication, I wonder if the Mets will still suck when this is published or will have righted the ship from their 17-18 start.  I guess we'll see. 

Well, I peeked, that 10-3 loss to the Nats on Monday was riveting. 

Yes, they still suck.

David Peterson has been horrific, as he has allowed 27 runs in 23 innings in his last 5 starts. In springs training, though, 12 shutout innings, just one hit allowed. Go figure.

Hope abounds.

Not to worry, the easy Tampa Rays are next. They’re 11-31…oh I’m sorry, make that 31-11.

And Tampa has scored 260 runs in 42 games. That is a 1,004 run pace.

The Mets have scored 174 runs in 42 games. 2 runs fewer per game.

Our two mega-stars, Alonso and Lindor, are hitting a combined .228, with 85 Ks and 19 HRs in 316 at bats.  Living in Dave Kingman territory.

THIS ONLY HAPPENS ONCE:

David Peterson (majors/minors) is 1-7 in May.

Fellow lefty John Tudor in 1985 was 1-7 on Memorial Day.

John Tudor went 20-1 the rest of the way.

David Peterson will not, however, go 20-1 the rest of the way.

It only happens once.

David won't even do that in AAA, where he is no doubt heading.

You see, Tudor's ERA when he was 1-7 was 3.74, then he just stopped allowing runs.  Just 32 earned runs over his last 200 innings, which was a 1.44 ERA.

Peterson's ERA so far? 8.08. 7,20 in AAA.

Nope, it only happens once.