MACK - My Wednesday Observations: Mets Futures: 3B - Tong, 2024 Game 161, Braves, Sherr, Trade Deadli, Nolan

 

Mets Futures - 3B

We continue heading in the direction of the visiting dugout and we now are standing on third, the position we anointed Make Vientos with at the beginning of this season. Well, guess what? That’s sort of changed. Brett Baty has come out of nowhere to, not only being a defensive star, but also the most prolific bat in the lineup in May. Both these two are under team control for many years, so even if they flip flop back and forth and the Mets play only the hot bat here, one must assume we are done worrying about anyone else playing this position for the rest of this decade.

Not so fast, taco breathe.

The string is still out here on both these guys, so we need to see what’s bubbling below the major league level at this position. And nothing is bubbling more than Ronny Mauricio at AAA-Syracuse. He simply is on fire since returning from a long pause for a torn ACL in his right knee. First had surgery in December 2023, followed up by a follow-up surgery in August 2024. Long time for turning at first towards second base.

Mauricio’s “natural position” is third, which is like saying Lucas Duda’s was left field. Ronny is simply not known for his defense and, even a bat this hard is going to find it hard to push off the 5^th ranked third baseman in the league in defensive runs saves (Baty). Me? Well, I would go for a push here during the remainder of this season. Keep him off the field and let him DH, then send him again to winter ball to work on his field work.

The Mets have a couple of long-term potential candidates in Brooklyn at this position. One is Jacob Reimer, a 21/year old that also plays first and left. He’s currently hitting .300+ with a 1.000+ OPS. That’s good, right? He’s currently playing some first and flip-flopping with the next guy that has been hotter than he has hit in May… a top-level Mets prospect named Jesus Baez. This 20/year old has been tagged as one of the current top Mets prospects and the future at third for this team. I believe he is also. He has all the tools needed to make him a star in this game. He’s, at least, two seasons away, so we can only dream now, right?

The bubbling stops here, though there is an interesting guy named Josue Chacoa that is signing this year and will play for one of the DSL teams when there season will shortly open.

MLB top 50

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6385849/2025/05/29/mlb-top-50-prospects-2025-roman-anthony/

#50        Jonah Tong        RHP

Preseason 2025 Rank: Unranked

Tong works heavily off his fastball, throwing it almost 60 percent of the time, and gets a ton of misses on the pitch, especially when he works in the upper third. He comes from a high slot that hitters can’t pick up and works off the fastball with a 12/6 curveball and solid changeup. He’s also picked up some velocity this year, sitting more 92-95 and touching 98. The only real caveat here is that it’s a very uncommon arm slot for a starter; over-the-top guys do not pitch well east-west, and that includes Tong, and it’s not very easy on the shoulder to throw from up there. It’s so effective, and Tong does it so well already without a ton of experience (he has 172 pro innings as I write this), that I think you just have to go with it and consider that he might be an exception. Hitters seem to think so.

MLB’s 25 best games of the 2000s

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6388908/2025/05/30/best-mlb-games-2000s-ranking/

22. 2024 Game 161: Mets 8, Braves 7

One thing that can set regular-season games apart is, say, if a hurricane in the final week of the season caused two postponements between two long-time rivals fighting for a postseason berth with the ensuing make-up doubleheader played the day after the rest of the league finished its regular-season schedule. That would be interesting, right?

With the entire sport watching on a Monday afternoon, the Mets and Braves played an absolute classic. Atlanta was cruising, taking a 3-0 lead into the eighth, before the Mets launched the kind of late-inning rally that characterized their postseason run in 2024. New York scored six times in the eighth, with Brandon Nimmo’s two-run homer feeling like a nail in the coffin. But the Braves are no stranger to Lazarus acts — especially against the Mets — and responded with four runs of their own in the bottom of the inning, thanks to Edwin Díaz forgetting to cover first base and Ozzie Albies clearing the bases.

Francisco Lindor had one more twist up his sleeve: a two-run homer in the top of the ninth for one more lead change. Díaz closed it out in the ninth to clinch a trip to the postseason for New York.

Will the Braves Take Off

https://www.justbaseball.com/mlb/will-atlanta-braves-take-off-acuna-mvp-return-injury/

Atlanta’s Offensive Production

The offense has been the biggest issue for Atlanta so far this season, with many of their key hitters struggling to open the year.

Michael Harris II currently sports a .597 OPS and 60 wRC+, Ozzie Albies has a .668 OPS and 87 wRC+, and both Matt Olson and Austin Riley have just recently started getting their offense rolling.

With the return of Ronald Acuña, the lineup immediately gets dangerous from the very first at-bat of the game. While we may not see him steal 70 bags this year — or ever again for that matter — the bat speaks for itself.

Opposing pitchers will be more inclined to give hitters at the bottom of the order, such as Nick Allen, Albies, and Harris, more hittable pitches, as they will not want to face Acuña with runners on base.

Rather than rely on both Alex Verdugo and Eli White for offensive production, Atlanta now can deploy just one in the daily lineup. Moreover, Allen’s limited offense will no longer be as big of an issue.

May Stats    ERA (rank)    WHIP (rank) FIP (rank)     xFIP (rank)   SIERA (rank)

Rotation       3.04 (4)         1.12 (4)         3.67 (8)         3.47 (6)         3.56 (7)

Bullpen         3.28 (7)         1.34 (15)       3.90 (17)       3.94 (10)       3.69 (14)

May Stats    OPS (rank)   wRC+ (rank) wBOA (rank)           HardHit% (rank)     EV (rank)

Offense        .707 (18)       96 (19)          .313 (16)       43.1% (10)   90.2 (10)

The pitching staff has been very solid overall. The home run ball has been a thorn in their side, but I believe in the pitching factory that Atlanta deploys on a yearly basis.

With the offense being average at best, the hope lies on the bat of Acuña. Out of his 13 batted balls so far through his first two series, Acuña has recorded an 85% hard-hit rate with an average exit velocity of 102.4 mph.

His spark to the lineup has been felt immediately, and it may just be what the rest of the offense needs to get back on track and hit like they historically have.

U.S. tennis president Lew Sherr to leave USTA for New York Mets

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6393368/2025/05/30/lew-sherr-usta-tennis-new-york-mets/

Lew Sherr, the chief executive of the U.S. Tennis Association (USTA), is stepping down at the end of June to join the New York Mets as president of business operations.

Sherr, a veteran of sports business in New York who previously held senior positions at Madison Square Garden, recently unveiled an $800 million redesign of Arthur Ashe Stadium at the U.S. Open. The plans include additional hospitality space and a new player performance center.

What might New York need at the trade deadline?

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6396693/2025/06/02/this-week-in-mets-trade-deadline-needs/

Internal offensive improvement will be enough … right?

The Mets have arrived at the first week of June in first place despite an offense that hasn’t performed up to expectations. They currently average 4.41 runs per game, a shade above the major-league average of 4.33, and only good for ninth in the National League.

There’s reason to believe that will change. Juan Soto, of course, has not yet hit like Juan Soto. Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso took steps in May. (Pretty much nobody outside of Brett Baty and Jeff McNeil had strong Mays for New York.) Mark Vientos and Francisco Alvarez should be better, though their youth and shorter track records render them larger question marks than they’d otherwise be.

If those players pick up the pace, as you’d expect, then the Mets will enter the second half of July pretty comfortable with their offense. If they’re still sitting ninth in the NL in scoring by then, it will be time for an upgrade. Where that upgrade needs to happen is unpredictable; it could be at second base, third base, catcher, designated hitter, etc. (No, no, no, it will not be in right field.)

Eno Sarris’ MLB starting pitcher rankings for the rest of 2025

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6375745/2025/06/03/sarris-mlb-starting-pitcher-rankings-rest-of-2025-season/ 

#26                 Kodai Senga

94 Stuff+                  3.66 ppERA  

Stuff+            94

Location+     97

Pitching+      96

Health           67%

Proj. IP          163

ppERA           3.66

ppK%             25.0%

Early MLB All-Star team picks

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6401037/2025/06/04/mlb-all-star-team-predictions-2025/

Pete Alonso, Mets — The Polar Bear leads NL first basemen with 12 homers and 48 RBIs while posting a .921 OPS.

Top 100 MLB Prospects for 2025

https://www.justbaseball.com/prospects/top-100-mlb-prospects/

38. Nolan McLean – RHP – New York Mets

Height/Weight: 6’2″, 215 | Bat/Throw: R/R | 3rd Round (91), 2024 (NYM) | ETA: 2025

FASTBALL     Slider Cutter           CURVEBALL CHANGEUP  COMMAND FV

50/55 60/65 55/55 40/50 30/40 40/50 50+

Once a two-way prospect, McLean’s impressive feel to pitch has shifted the focus to the mound where he offers exciting projection based on the athleticism and data. He has converted the projection into production in 2025, elevating both his quality of stuff and consistency.

Arsenal

McLean utilizes a five-pitch mix, but predominantly throws his fastball, slider and cutter. The fastball sits in the mid-90s, reaching 97 MPH from a low release point with some run and ride. McLean’s feel to spin it particularly stands out, especially for a pitcher as inexperienced as he is.

His sweeping slider averages nearly 17 inches of horizontal break while sitting right at zero vertically. Generally a pitch shape that would yield noticeable platoon splits, the sharpness and McLean’s feel for it makes it effective against opposite-handed hitters as well, averaging more than 3,000 RPM. Landing it for a strike roughly two thirds of the time as a pro is particularly impressive given how much horizontal action it features in the mid 80s.

McLean’s upper 80s gyro cutter gives him a second above average offering, mixing it to righties and lefties evenly. The downward action it features makes it an effective ground ball pitch, especially to righties.

The fourth offering for McLean is a sweeping curveball that he will flip in sparingly, but has the potential to be a quality offering if he can find more consistency with it. The 78-80 MPH pitch averages 19 inches of horizontal break with 12 inches of vertical at more than 3300 RPM.

His changeup lags far behind the rest of his arsenal, landing it for a strike less than 50% of the time in 2024 with an understandably low usage rate of roughly 8%.

The presence of McLean’s cutter and curveball and the effectiveness of his slider against opposite-handed hitters help negate the need for a useful changeup, as he struck out left-handed hitters at a 4% higher clip in 2024 despite lacking a usable change.

Outlook

After a strong first full season of pitching as a starter, McLean is a candidate to make a big leap in 2025 given his feel to spin it and athleticism on the mound.

For context, he threw twice as many innings in 2024 as he did in his entire collegiate career. The part-time hitting he was doing in his first pro season and a half is no longer as well, only adding to the intrigue of what McLean can progress to with his focus now being more isolated.

With his pitch mix and ability to get contact on the ground, McLean has a good chance to stick as a back-end starter, with the upside to be a middle rotation option in a quality rotation.