Mack’s Morning Report – 1-2 – Mike Piazza, Ike Davis, Woman Player, Rylan Sandoval, T.J. Rivera

Dave Cameron –

Mike Piazza, C, +67 WAR - Ditto everything I said about Bagwell. I don’t know if Piazza used PEDs or not. Maybe he did, maybe he didn’t. There’s no evidence that he did, and we shouldn’t be keeping clear Hall-of-Famers out of Cooperstown because of the possibility that they used steroids. Even if you believe that guys who used steroids don’t belong in Cooperstown — I don’t, but for sake of argument, go with me here — you have to weigh the benefits of preserving that kind of standard against the cost of keeping a deserving player out because of a false accusation. I’d rather induct both an unknown PED user and a guy who never touched steroids than keep both out, assuming they’re both deserving from an on-field perspective. To me, rejecting a worthy player because we falsely believe they did something they did not do is worse than accepting a guy who used steroids into the Hall of Fame. I’m not advocating for Piazza and Bagwell because I’m naive enough to think that there’s no chance either had chemical assistance — I’m advocating for them because I don’t believe in assailing someone’s reputation without proof. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/my-theoretical-2014-hall-of-fame-ballot/

                       Mack - Of course I would like every New York Met to be in the Hall of Fame, but I don't expect him to be voted in again this year. There's a cloud hanging over his head... err, no, there are two clouds. One is the drugs and the other is the sex preference rumors that floated round years ago. The drugs were not PEDs and the sex stuff was just really stupid, but it just may be enough for non-New York writers to keep his name off enough of the ballots.

                      I can't tell you how much I hope I'm wrong about this one.

Matt Cerrone –

The Mets clearly want a pitching prospect. From what I can gather, teams only seem willing to part with lower-tier, Double-A pitching. So, if I had to guess, I’d say the Brewers are still the best fit for Ike, but Milwaukee is probably waiting to see how the market ultimately settles. They’ll then get a final read on Sandy Alderson’s asking price, match that up with what Michael Young is looking for as a free agent (assuming he’s still available) and then make a decision.

In the meantime, the Mets can wait and keep talking with the Orioles. There is no rush. They can always bring Ike to camp, see what’s what and either keep him, deal him before the start of the season or cut him at the tune of $600,000, according to ESPN’s Buster Olney.

            Mack – I believe that Davis will be DFA’d the same day the Mets work out a deal for Stephen Drew. I look for the Drew deal to be for two years, around $10-12mil a year. IMO, that’s where the market is right now
 

Fangraphs –

If manager is a highly unlikely role for a woman by 2043, position player would give it a run for its money in terms of improbability. Along with the off-field drama and the dugout and clubhouse atmosphere, there's the significant issue of on-field performance.  With today's rosters split roughly 50-50 between position players and pitchers, this means a major league fielder is one of the 500 or so best players in the world. That's an incredibly high standard to achieve, and there is an inherent physical advantage for men in most sports, including baseball.  Certainly, I'm not saying it's impossible for a woman to break into the bigs, just that the mountain of obstacles—both societal and physical—make the odds quite slim. I was wrong about the manager role; this would be the toughest spot for a female to reach the majors.

Chance of a female position player in the next 30 years: 0.1 percent

Mack – This simply isn’t going to happen. You would have to excel through so many levels of school and affiliate ball that… well, let’s just leave it at never happening.

 

Q and A from ‘Hobie’ –

           Happy New Year, Mack, and all the best. Having addressed Muno, could you (A) compare him to Ryan Sandoval; and (B) throw T.J. Rivera in that mix for placement in 2014 and beyond?

           Mack – Let’s talk Sandoval first (remember… thi is all just my opinion).

           Let’s get something straight about Rylan Sandoval. No on ever accused him of being a prospect. The Mets actually drafted him back in 2007 (30^th), but he decided to attend Long Beach State instead. He played sparingly there (2008: 76-AB; 2009: 96-AB) or unknown reasons and the Mets, for the hell of it, signed him as an undrafted free agent to play the 2010 season in Brooklyn (22-yrs. old, 185-AB, .330).

           Sandoval didn’t wow anyone again until last year. He hit .243 for St. Lucie (222-AB), but was then sent to AAA-Las Vegas to fill up a roster lot created when Omar Quintanilla was promoted to Queens. The result was a stat line of .327/.378/.509/.887 in 110 at-bats.

           The Mts have moved him around a lot in hopes of developing a future utility player. He has pretty much left shortstop behind and plays mostly at second. He also played some third in Vegas and first base at Lucy.

           Me? I’ve never seen him as anything more than a future AAAA player. My guess is he play Vegas in April, back at shortstop (Danny Muno at second and Zach Lutz at third), while Wilfredo Tovar makes the parent squad as the utility infielder.

           Another guy that comes with absolutely no prospect tags is T.J. Rivera. Rivera is a local boy that was signed as an undrafted free agent in 2011.

           The difference between Sandoval and Rivera is, so far, Rivera has hit at every level he has played for. He has now played for four Mets teams (through St. Lucie) and has a 3-year stat line of: .304/.359/.396/.755. He also started out a shortstop, but plays pretty exclusively t second base now.

           Rivera is pretty much blocked by Danny Muno and Dilson Herrera and LJ Mazzilli are right behind him. I don’t see any of these four every being converted back to short, so it will be interesting to see what the Mets do if Rivera bats .300+ at the AA level.

           My guess is all this is a moot point. Daniel Murphy is the 2014 Mets second baseman, and Wilmer Flores will be his first backup. What the Mets are looking for is a shortstop and no one in this post has that range to be successful at the major league level.